George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Burford Capital is one of the most interesting and difficult to replicate businesses we have come across in recent years. Burford is a “litigation finance company”, meaning that it finances its clients (primarily large corporations and law firms) through litigation in exchange for a share of the awarded damages. It is essentially an investment company whose portfolio consists of individual litigation cases. The long-term historical returns are very high (Burford on average earns close to 100% return on funded litigation) and Burford can repeatedly reinvest the funds from profits without the average return declining. Such companies are very rare. In Burford's broad portfolio of about $7 billion in total, a case involving the expropriation of YPF shareholders by the Argentine government stands out in size. This litigation made significant progress last year and the court has even already determined the damages to be paid by Argentina. Initial estimates were in the range of $6–16 billion. In valuing Burford’s shares, we had been working with an amount at the low end of that range and so we were pleasantly surprised when the court set the damages at the high end. Of the established $16 billion (and this amount grows by an additional $2.3 million per day due to penalty interest), about $6.2 billion should go directly to Burford. That is a relatively large sum of money compared to Burford's market capitalization, which, despite an 83% rise in its stock price last year, is about $3.4 billion and includes all of the company’s other extensive businesses. We do not expect that Burford will receive the full $6 billion. We anticipate a settlement agreement with Argentina and a lower figure. On the other hand, we think there are other cases in Burford’s portfolio that have potential to generate billions of dollars in damages and, moreover, where the counterparties are of a different calibre in terms of creditworthiness and enforceability than is Argentina. Burford is a company that is trickier to analyse, requires more abstract thinking, and also has an irregular and difficult to predict cadence of financial results. But that does not bother us in the least. Quite the contrary.
https://www.vltavafund.com/dopisy-akcionarum/2023
OSG I don’t disagree with anything in your reply to my post I just don’t believe at this stage it will add anything significant to the EBITDA but will certainly significantly increase the value of the brand. Inginuity news - if the rumours are to be believed is the next SP win..
I have a limited knowledge of retail but from a standing start that is impressive - the £’s to the bottom line will have hardly any impact. However from a brand point of view it is impressive and will have been noticed by the usual global suspects.
I agree with all of your points GT.
Malc most if not all LTH expect a substantial discount. The prize is a deal being agreed which will prove the doubters wrong and allow the market to move on from the YPF binary narrative (from the horses mouth).
£20 by April
Oh well £12.50 will do… maybe tomorrow?
Merry Christmas
Argentina’s has a huge wealth of natural & human resources…
“Argentina is a country rich in natural resources and with a highly educated population, but at the same time with a persistent political and economic instability. Argentina is the South American country with the most variety of natural resources: the third largest deposit of lithium, the third largest shale formation for oil and gas, the fourth largest producer of soy and vast maritime resources. Argentina is also a leading food producer with large-scale agricultural and livestock industries. It has a stock of bovine as of 31 December 2021 of 53,416,435 heads. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately US$490 billion. Within its 2.8 million square kilometres of territory, it also has great potential for renewable energy. Argentina has innovative services in high tech industries and a highly educated middles class. Education in state institutions is free and covers primary, secondary, tertiary levels and undergraduate university levels. According to the last census, the illiteracy rate is of only 1.9%, the second lowest in Latin America. In the last decade, Argentina has created nine new universities and there is a draft in Congress that creates seven more universities, while the outflow of university students has increased by 68%. Even though education at all levels, including universities, has always been free, there are also a significant number of private schools and universities ranked at international level.”
…
💥.. at last the government of Argentina has acknowledged it will pay
With thanks to Seb… realisation is setting in and the tone is changing…
"Argentina will fulfil its commitments and will respect its contracts always, and will always respect the decision of justice in all order and under all circumstances, that's why we are analysing the roads," the presidential spokesman said at the usual press conference.
The spokesman for the Presidency of the Nation, Manuel Adorni, said on Friday that "Argentina will fulfil its commitments and will respect its contracts always," in reference to the New York court ruling that obliges the country to pay US$ 16.1 billion for the nationalisation of YPF, based on the lawsuit filed by the Burford Capital fund.
"Argentina will fulfil its commitments and will always respect its contracts, and will always respect the decision of justice in every order and under all circumstances, that's why we are analysing the roads," Adorni said at the usual press conference in the Government House.
*Lady
It’s been a little bit one step forward one step back over the last 6 weeks but we have hopefully now been granted a few large steps forward by Lasy Preska…
Merry Christmas my fellow BUR comrades and roll on 2024..
Thank you again Seb
https://x.com/sebastianmaril/status/1737645115399631137?s=61&t=YCTHncpjYnur-vSNrbInQw
Apologies.. year end Q4. I agree 2024 is going to be very exciting
Correction
No problem
January - General market awareness around Burford & YPF court progress £13
February - Q3 update £16
March / April YPF conclusion £20 (could be earlier)
No problem
January - General market awareness around YPF court progress £13
February - Q3 update £16
March / April YPF conclusion £20 (could be earlier)
Still calling £20 by April ..
THG’s activist investor has stepped up its campaign by urging the company to confirm break-up plans.
Kelso Group has written to the business’s board calling for a stock market statement outlining proposals for a demerger of its three divisions.
Kelso has been building its stake in THG since January and now has exposure to about 0.55 per cent of the group’s share capital. The investment firm has argued that a demerger of THG could help to lift its share price to 225p and achieve a market valuation of around £3 billion. Analysts at Liberum have said THG could achieve this target price if the market valued the divisions by comparison to peers in their respective industries.
I’m still calling £20+ early 2024 and a dinner with Seb in early May in Miami