Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
np, canary. My intel is that the seller was more HNW than institution who has suffered relatively severe margin calls and so 'sold what he could, not necessarily what he wanted to.....' The buyer however, I have no real steer on. Yet.....
The main trading yesterday was comprised of 2 prints totalling 4.35m shares(which, interestingly, is just under 1% of the Company). This seller has been pressuring the share price for about 2 weeks and is apparently now cleared, which is the primary reason the sp rallied in the afternoon and into the close, and continued to be better bid most of today, albeit in choppy fashion (e.g., you can't really rely on that 24p/+4% close. A more realistic price would have been 23/23.5, up small. Someone played silly buggers on 6k shares in the fixing). Still, a large seller that has done considerable damage to the sp recently appears to finally be finished and a 'new' buyer has emerged who may well carry on at these still ridiculously low levels. Important trading bottoms have been established on a lot less.....
Welcome aboard canary. And, thankyou, InContext, for your essential correction regarding Cemex's status as a global behemoth, rather than a certain poster's vaguely ****** suggestion of a company comprising a couple of cement mixers and a storefront. You threw shade on his dumbf*ckery while remaining polite and respectful. I would not have been nearly as dispassionate.
Not exactly. It's YOU that doesn't matter. On account of you're an idiot. These are the first revenues earned virtually anywhere in a space which is projected to grow rapidly, after years of investment, into a multi-billion dollar industry and BATM's business is finally starting to gain traction (e.g, with its second customer, CityFibre, which is far bigger, with 90% margins) and add further customers. What kind of mindless troll is going to think to maintain that you then value that business based on the initial revenues from its earliest customer?!? Oh wait....
The reason this is particularly important, Max, is that all at once, the Company achieves multiple results: one, it immediately turbo charges new management's credibility with the market generally as it is an important (and early!) first step in validating the Company's very ambitious forecast for 2023 following last year's results (which of course have been completely ignored until now) , but in particular with the institutions that saw the Company after those year-end results and are likely waiting for some confirmation, like today's RNS, before adding more/opening a position. In addition of course, Edgility is one of the Company's 2 'moon-shot' businesses (along with Ador) which is not even accounted for in today's low, oversold price. Keep it coming, Moti.
This is certainly among the very cheapest tech names in the UK market, possibly all of Europe, providing investors a unique opportunity to take advantage of this deeply oversold price. Using conservative EBIT multiples (say, just 4-5x) for BATM's main businesses on already conservative assumptions for FY2024, I get a sum-of-the-parts well above 40p, while of course more 'realistic' multiples on growth areas like Cyber, Edgility and Ador gets me pretty easily to 80-100p. The secret sauce that makes this name so exciting is, as always, the massive cash pile relative to the market cap leveraged of course through the new management's commitment to realising value through partnerships and M&A . Bring on the new CEO's strategic plan.
If you don't mind flatcap, I'd prefer if you simply not align yourself with any of my posts until you cease posting outrageous nonsense like casually asserting the new CEO is a crook. Just because the share price is languishing doesn't give you the right to make such outrageous, utterly baseless, claims. Move on if you have nothing better to do than vent your spleen
Over the next few months, I think we'll increasingly hear more about the break-up value of this deeply discounted conglomerate, if/as management begin to execute the disposal-acquisition-partnership plans outlined in the recent strategy deck that accompanied the 2022 results. Using very conservative EBIT multiples for the near-half dozen distinct businesses, (ie., nothing above 4-5x), ex-cash, gives me a minimum upside of 40p, while just slightly more reasonable multiples on the faster growing ones gets you to 80p+ pretty easily.
Huh? That's just complete gibberish. Just because Vodaphone have a page on their website that talks about edge computing, doesn't mean they have a competitive product suite. CF have a strong working relationship already with Vod. If the latter had a relevant product with anything near the functionality of Edgility's, CF would have awarded the contract to them. Edgility are 'tiny so far' because they are in the market vanguard - ie., the ONLY game in town - as they roll out to CF's 800k business and 2m retail customers. And now it seems Virgin needs that 'loss-making CityFibre' more than CF need them and they're will to pay 3B for the privilege. And in a final bit of gibberish, you managed to miss that BATM have just guided the market that new Edgility customers signup announcements are imminent in this fiscal year. You were a perfect 0-for-4. Well done.
If a deal comes off, this could represent a real game-changer (to the good) for BATM/Edgility in its stupidly profitable rollout to CityFibre's 800k business customers, not to mention its 2/3million retail ones:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/18/virgin-media-o2-talks-3bn-bid-cityfibre/
Does that mean we can't count on you to bring the jammie dodgers to the next shareholder's meeting, Nutmeg?? shame.
oh and the market cap, in isolation, is likewise a meaningless stat
The problem is you shouldn't be looking at 'PE' in the first place. This is a sum-of-the-parts name, driven by huge imbedded IP value, where the management is embarking on a disposal strategy in order to simplify the structure and then pursue targeted acquisitions and partnerships for the remaining core businesses, in order to maximise growth and unlock value. On that basis, the value of this Company upwards of 80p. Price/earnings multiples are meaningless in valuing a company in this position.
pure word salad
What in the f are you on about? 'Similar to Sirius Minerals'?!? 'Long term growth but stinks of a takeover'? Did you check where BATM was when JFK was assassinated? Retire
Sorry, not so fast. First off, the Israeli line has been trading materially below the London price for a while now so it needed a big day eventually to catch up a bit, but more important, today's entire 6% move in Israel to 112.9 shekel was in the first couple of hours on just 13k shares. The rest of the session, the shares were bid-offered was much lower at 109-110, but the stock didn't trade again. That makes the 'true' close 109.5 shekel, which is the equivalent of 24.85p, still below our Friday close of 25.5p. Even if you use the last traded price in Israel of 112.9 as the close, that is still an equivalent of just 25.6p.
So we're clear, Richard, what I explained is a full accounting of what happened. I go way back with the Company and have aided in a few fundraises over the years (not the ones in the last year or so) and still see management occasionally when they're in town.
Richard - the key to joining up your thinking is first, the difference between the capital market conditions for small cap UK in December vs today is, tragically, night and day. In other words, IES found themselves in a sudden, order-driven working capital crisis at possibly the worst conditions for raising capital - EVEN for a healthy company like IES - for small companies in 40 years. Compared to mid-December, even though its barely 2 months later, the market conditions at the recent fund raise made IES management suddenly feel like they were running an internet company at the end of the last century. HAVING SAID THAT: there was still a level of outrage - no matter the market conditions - among many of IES's larger private investors that may have even extended to the smaller instos and perhaps even Schroders, that more of a proper effort was not made before turning to the bloodsuckers at Riverfort. And that can be rightly laid directly at the feet of IES's lead broker, Canaccord. In short, they s*ck big time.