RE: NNPCL - Nigeria's own Bete Noire27 Jun 2025 22:09
Bs - I know you won't, but stop trying to fight with me, especially when I'm trying hard to teach you something about value-added research vs utterly routine website surfing, which is proving particularly challenging as your entire premise is wrong. No one is saying the macro situation in Nigeria isn't relevant. What I am saying is first, you and anyone else here reading your googling results are going to learn sweet fa of anything useful on the subject vis-a-vis San Leon. Second, and far more important, the fact is Nigeria has been a 'failed state' for, well, forever, and yet the oil industry soldiers on, deals get done and money gets made. Furthermore, as you suggest, in among the negative headlines, the NNPC is starting to get its sht together, reducing their insistence on having a majority stake in all their operatorships, selling off parcel of licenses, and as for OML18, has evolved into a much more productive partner as I understand it. But all that is much of a muchness, frankly. In fact, I believe the well continues to produce and barge through this horrible waiting period, and so, with Eroton reviving without its troublesome founder, the macro backdrop for SLE is in fact pretty balanced, but more importantly, has never really mattered all that much anyway. Fanning may very well not be able to pull of the massive deal(s) needed to put together what may end up being one of the country's largest mini-majors in the end, but the interminable delay so far has had far, far less to do with the 'political/economic situation in Nigeria/the delta' as you describe it - or more to the point, the relative improvement or deterioration of that 'situation' - than the sheer size and complexity of the collective business and the financing needed to pull it off. And THAT'S why all your effort to puff up the relevance of your argument - and the resulting droning on about sht you will never have an edge in - through false confidence and projection - is a hiding to nowhere. By all means, google away and share the usual mix of real and phoney news, but the fact is, certainly in our lifetimes, history teaches there will never be 1 more marginal dollar going into Nigeria from outside investors because of any shiny new effort to 'clean up corruption' or crack down on criminal gangs. which comes around as regularly as the seasons. What has and will always attract outside capital to Nigeria, is a value proposition with a return profile well in excess of what can be earned in low/no risk jurisdictions (check), significant asset backing (check, but only if OF's material/controlling stakes in the pipeline, well(s) and 'boat' are airtight) and a group managing the damned thing that has complete control (think so) and can be trusted (hope so). THIS is where relevance for shareholders resides and not, I'm sorry, in your amateur hour geopolitics lessons, and is thus where everyone here should be focusing their research. Chercher the 2021 admission doc!