Member Info for bluemango

An odd RNS. Obviously a great positive that they have loads of cash to play with now from 50% sale of Caspian Explorer. Good to have enough to cover dividend and to develop further with 802, 803 etc. But as others have commented, the sparsity of detail is almost comical and makes you ask what on earth have they been doing since the great news on 802 way back in January.

Having said that, I'm puzzled by the market reaction today. Yes, still many questions obviously, but on balance - particularly the unexpected cash to play with - this extra unexpected cash has surely given an overall positive outlook and definitely not justifying a 8.2% fall on top of the massive depletion in value seen since January and the highs of 8p plus.

I guess it's the perceived uncertainty re the dividend, despite the coming cash windfall from CE part sale. But people will look back at this time, imo, in puzzlement at the negative market reaction.

Holding tight.

Agree.

For me, the new 803 well is definitely the most exciting development since January when they struck oil unexpectedly in 802 on the deep Yelemes. But we should not have had to find out via Bico tender site. This next operational update has to be the most eagerly anticipated in the company's history!

Indeed, perhaps another two weeks.

I don't know how many times it needs to be said, but some of you other guys really need to try to chill. Yes it's frustrating not being kept updated.

And yes, there might even be some slippage on the dividend but would that really be the end of the world? If those redirected funds finally enabled a sustainably flowing deep, I'd happily forego that one dividend payment. But it could still be paid in June. Nobody knows. So just chill! If everything was a certainty these would be 42p already ...

Agree with all that. I still maintain that even just neutral news will have a relief effect, 'thank God they're still actually alive and doing stuff' after such a long radio silence and I have therefore been quietly adding in the past few weeks. And I keep banging on about the pennant on the 6 month chart but it is my favourite chart formation for a reason; there's a logic behind the ever narrowing oscillations between bulls and bears reaching a point where a decisive breakout resolves the tussle. Naturally for reasons I've outlined previously, I believe that breakout will be upwards, and within the next couple of weeks; triggered by an operational update.

No, the last RNS did not say they'd pay it in May.

What it actually said was that they expected to announce the dividend in May, and pay it in June. It is that slippage of the announcement that has got some people's knickers in a twist.

My suggestion is enjoy the sunshine of a nice weekend.

As nice a pennant formation as you're ever likely to see, starting January (see 6 month chart) Still perfectly intact and poised for breakout on the right catalyst.

14 day RSI has risen slightly after being well into oversold territory in mid May.

Let the worry-warts fret, for the rest of us it's time to chill and look forwards, especially in short term for news on that 803 well.

Paul, not sure you're cut out for investing in Aim stocks if you're always this anxious; assuming it's all genuine.

Why sell anyway? Existing production and boat hire already cover the excellent 8.45% yield, so you are rewarded for patience while holding. Good news could propel the price up significantly, without warning. While just overall neutral news would reassure enough to stem what little selling there is. Even bad news would only mean a bit more delay in getting the deeps to flow and shareholders in Caspian are probably accustomed to waiting already... it's only a matter of time ..

The news on bicotender site suggests things have been happening (in a positive way, eg 803 well on deep structure). Yes the radio silence is frustrating but one shouldn't jump to conclusions either way.

Whatever the case, given the length of time, almost any update should be reassuring and lift the price. So the appropriate response to the continued wait would seem to be 'hold tight'

"I wonder if that rns was not meant for us shareholders but to let the big boys know we have oil in the deeps and there are communications taking place which is why we have heard nothing"

Indeed, thinking along those lines is why I speculated a few days ago that the secrecy might just have a corporate, strategic reason. We'll know in the next few days.

I also note two 3 million share options granted to Clive & Kuat (with a further 750,000 option for Edmund Limerick) with an exercise price of 20p expiring 21st August 2024.

Found it; thanks to togglebtrush over on Advfn:

This was set out in the last Annual Report 2021 on 27/06/2022

'

Extract Cash based incentives

In May 2019, we introduced a cash based long term incentive arrangements for the senior management team since 2012, Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver.

Under these arrangements, provided the share price growth exceeds pre-set targets starting at 17.23p, then for every $500 million increase in the Group's market capitalisation above $300 million, as adjusted to take account of dividends paid, both Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver, would receive payments of $3 million each.

The principal hurdles under these arrangements are set out in the table below.

Market cap threshold Share price Pay-out rate Pay-out amount target (each)

'

$' billion____Pence per share __%__ $' million

---------------- ------------- ---------------

_____0.8_____ 17.23____ 0.6___ 3.0

---------------- ------------- ---------------

_____1.3_____ 20.67___ 0.6 ____3.0

---------------- ------------- ---------------

_____1.8_____ 24.81___ 0.6____ 3.0

---------------- ------------- ---------------

_____2.3 _____29.77___ 0.6____ 3.0

---------------- ------------- ---------------

_____2.8 _____35.72___ 0.6____ 3.0

---------------- ------------- ---------------

Ah, I must dig out those details of the bonus Clive & Kuat get if the price gets to and stays at or above 17p for a month ... someone posted about it recently but I can't find it at the moment ..

'IF' we assume that what has been going on is generally positive, does anyone have any theories as to why they have been so unusually secretive, and could there be genuine strategic/commercial reasons for keeping things close to their chest until the last possible moment?

Not forgetting the tantalising bico tender for drilling the new 803.

Bottom line is, the upside here surely far,far outweighs any possible downside.

Surely the main significance of this debenture, is that it has been paid.

We all know why it's not more than 6p, market hates uncertainty and the nervous will have sold or reduced as a consequence.

Which is why even just neutral news should reassure enough to entice buyers in again.

Pennant formation on chart still intact and ready for breakout, RSI still on the floor and oversold. Small free float. News as overdue as it'll ever be.

Everything's poised and perfectly in place - it just depends what transpires in coming days ...

Suggestion, take everything posted here with an open mind. No harm in discussing possibilities.

And please stick to the arguments and figures suggested rather than worrying about motive? We'll know more, soon enough in any case.

And looking further ahead is why most of us are here anyway.