RE: Rgl9 Feb 2024 11:00
The company legally has to make a distribution of its profit/ EPRA EPS. The question is what will that EPRA EPS be?
Half year EPS was 2.5p (£12.7m). At the high end estimate, if we simply double this, for the full year would be 5.0p (c.£25m).
Realistically, I think earnings will be more in the range of £15-£20m. this could be from increased overheads, reduced income, and also fees paid to investment bankers to roll the £50m bond - that would be £1-2m on its own! So £15-20m = EPS of 3-3.8p per share.
assuming the market prices RGL at a required yield of 15% (it has been in the 10-20% range for a while), that implies that the NAV/price per share should be 20-25 per share. Which is where we are.
So I think it is fairly priced. I stupidly got in at 30, so sitting on a huge loss. My other worry is whether RGL will find a way to halt the dividend through exceptional circumstances, which would be a disaster.