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Discussion re; the possible outlook for AEG should the test burn results be favourable... (Please correct any errors or my part). And no, this deadline or that deadline was missed in the past comments etc. not wanted, we've heard them all before, multiple times. Let's discuss future possibilities.
So, while the test burn / 1st order has been to Hunter Power Plant, Pacificorp operate 10 coal fired power plants (some part owned). I don't have the % breakdown of each, if someone has, please share. Totaling 5,922 MW in capacity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PacifiCorp
Some stats:
1,000 Mw = 9,000 tonnes of coal per day.
5,992 Mw = 53,928 tonnes of coal per day.
https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Coal_fired_power_plant
Assuming Pacificorp are to adopt a 10% Coalswitch blend into their energy production, as per original test planned in 2017, I believe. One would think, if they adopted the CS technology, that they will roll this out to all coal fired power stations, in time, rather than just the Hunter Power Plant.
Therefore they would be looking at ballpark 2 million tonnes of Coalswitch consumption per year.
53,928 * 0.1 * 365 = 1,968,372
Obviously there is no way AEG could manage producing this amount of product, so it raises the question, if Pacificorp are really serious about Coalswitch, surely they have looked down the road & have a plan for accumulating enough product to service their power plants. Even if it's just the one plant, although if the product is successful in reducing emissions to required levels, I would guess it will be adopted across the group.
And so, it opens up the possibility that they would in fact be more inclined to take a license to produce themselves or even buy the technology outright.
Again, if any of my figures are of the mark, please adjust in your comments.
Possible licences on the horizon?
"Tohoku is still mulling suppliers of black pellets, and will also study producing the feedstock production at other unused sites that it owns.
Japanese refiner Idemitsu is gearing up its black pellet business, with an expected rise in demand from the country's coal-fired power producers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Idemitsu plans to start commercial black pellet production in Vietnam in 2022 with capacity of 120,000 t/yr"
There's are a number of significant shareholders. No mention of the others selling off as of yet. And surely those would have access to the same updates as Gravendock, if any. Suggests they have their own agenda for paring back their investment, could be anything.
I'll not be that concerned until we hear in RNS that something has gone wrong. We all know Sorg has it in for AEG anyway.
https://www.aegplc.com/shareholder-analysis/
No mention specifically of 900 tonnes, but he does say it was delivered and in schedule. (Suggesting the complete order?
3mins 20sec in
http://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/60db2a370bb2806642d66a9a/60e6dded9ba26d578c050030
From RNS it states:
PacifiCorp delivery & testing program
CoalSwitch deliveries were made, on time and on schedule, to PacifiCorp in June 2021. AEG is now working with the University of Utah and Brigham Young University on the test program at the Hunter Power Plant in Utah. The Company will publish the test results when they are received.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEG/trading-update-agm-statement-wnzdqeidp444wuc.html
Lisa Sorg again. Don't believe it.
She states:
Eric Kennedy, director of licensing and compliance with Maine’s Bureau of Air Quality, said that during the trial period the company has produced only about eight tons of pellets that it had promised to PacifiCorp.
Also:
Kennedy said Maine regulators don’t yet have emissions data from the trial period
So he doesn't have emissions data but has info of only 8 tonnes (two hours worth) of production.
He would hardly be privy to market relevant info that contradicts RNS.
If it were true, Rowan would be finished for blatantly lying about the full order being delivered on time.
The post before mine, posted at 10 to 1 in the morning by the very person that chastises others for posting late at night.
In his own words: "Either his wife kicked him out of bed or he is sad lonely little ramper ha ha."
In this case a de-ramper. :)
There was mention of companies possibly looking to offload their biomass waste a while back, because of Bidens enviornmental rules I think. AEG could even be in a position of charging others for taking their waste off their hands.
I think It was mentioned in one of the presentations.
AGM Proxy Form
https://www.aegplc.com/corporate-documents/
Do you mean the emission or test burn results ?
I don't expect the board of Pacificorp to have sit & discussed the test burn results within days of the burn and have made a pivotal decision that affects the entire companies strategy with hast (even though that's what AEG investors would like). They are not under pressure to change things immediately, and AEG aren't in a position to provide mass quantities right now anyway.
Pacificorp have been waiting years to test this product at scale. It's very evident, in my opinion, by the lack of buys/sells that everyone is sitting on the edge of their seats, waiting to see what happens. Directors included.
Separately, is it not possible for a director to buy shares through a fund, trust, or some other form of entity, without having to declare their ownership? I'm not well versed on this, so any input welcome.
RMDE license is for 20 years
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEG/first-coalswitch-licence-agreement-awarded-d8550u33manl0ib.html
My bad. I'd just researched further and was about to post it was likely down to CLN's. We can't all be as all masterful & knowledgeable as you, RB ;)
That said, they are shareholders none the less. :)
Hey Seattle,
According to Interactive Brokers, it was Linarus FZE. And their source of info was from the UK register.
On their platform it's listed under strategic entities (corporations and holding companies investing for strategic stakes in companies)
And their holding is 18.37%
I assume it is correct.
So, expansion to 2 x 10tph plants planned or a typo?
140,000 tonnes is 20tph.
"Managements plans to expand the production capacity of both the Lumberton and Ashland CoalSwitchTM plants will result in the Group having capacity to produce 140,000 tons of CoalSwitchTM per annum from the start of 2022."
According to the link below, a previous test burn scheduled in 2018 was to take 18 hours. Haven't come across any info regarding the pending burn.
"Rocky Mountain is preparing an 18-hour test, with a 10 percent blend of CoalSwitch and 90 percent coal, to see if it could reduce emissions, Murphy said. The trial is scheduled between the last quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018."
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/baseload/rocky-mountain-power-to-test-biomass-that-may-cut-coal-use/#gref