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I think we’re nearly out of the woods. It’s been hovering around the 0.5 fib level for 7 days, stochastics oversold (almost), rising rsi at 57,macd converging and 3 consecutive days of higher lows. If we get above average volume (400m) it’s all primed for lift off ahead of news. I’m hoping we start the rise and gain some momentum before the news drops and then catch the 50 year storm of a wave!
Shed - I agree that they probably don't need the money (assuming all outstanding actions undertaken) but if EUZ were approached with an offer via a discounted placing for a bit of cash to help keep the lights on for a bit longer, would they take it?
RNS 11th March
Outlook for 2019:
Subject to funding, the Company's plans for the Toral Project in 2019, include:
· An infill drilling campaign to target the high-grade core of the deposit, with the aim of increasing confidence in the resource estimate to the JORC (2012) Indicated category. COMPLETED DRILLING CAMPAIGN. AWAITING JORC UPDATE
· Completion of the first metallurgical test work programme on the project to provide PFS level results on comminution, flotation and concentrate grade. ONGOING
· Commencement of environmental studies, which will be ongoing across the seasons. ONGOING - 30 DAY PERIOD ENDS NEXT WEEK
· Commencement of hydrogeological characterisation of the Toral Project. NOT MENTIONED IN RECENT UPDATES
I'll choose my words carefully...
The share price could be being 'artficially' supressed by the offer of a placing from one of our other larger shareholders; DB et al in order to build a larger stake. This could actually be seen as a postive if they 'know' more than we do. I'm not averse to a placing as long as it is only enough to buy a 'For Sale' sign.
I agree. There are a few options possible with varying shades of grey:
1) Europa Acquistion
2) 100% sale of Toral and Europa remains a going concern, or, could be a potential RTO option for another company
3) JV - partial sale of Toral allowing Europa to reinvest the cash into mine development. Might be an option for longer term investors
Option 1 for me please - it's cleaner and will probably be easier to quantify once the results are in and we understand the updated JORC
Spot on Oiltap - as ever. Very similar numbers to what I've calculated. I've created a year on year P&L, cash flow, NPV and IRR with some very conservative assumptions (over on opex, capex and discounted revenue to 80%) and I still can't get down to the NPV of $110m. I'm absolutely astounded at just how much this is undervalued. With an increased level of confidence to indicated for the high grade area, even without an increase in mineralisaton, this should be massive.
Incidentally, My IRR calcs exceeded 30% which is always a good hurdle.
AIMHO, DYOR and all that.
I don’t believe any cgt is payable on any dividends received from stocks in an isa. Whilst not giving any financial advice, it may be prudent to bed and isa (up to your annual allowance limit) if held In a normal account while the sp is low if a special dividend is likely. Please dyor
Thanks oiltap. I know how NPV works but was wondering if, in the full scoping study, there was any consideration of whether the higher grades were mined and processed in priority or the financial model was based on a yearly average gross tonnage of the total asset and associated % conversion. Hence, the question of accelerated cash-in part of the NPV calcs.
Wow! Just wow! Congrats to the long term sufferers and new holders either now in profit or considerably less exposed. What happens next? I think dilution is out of the question at these (still) levels as DB will either block or have some consideration preventing such action and may assist in some other financing instrument - low risk of placing currently. Toral sale? Quite likely but I think offers may be kicked into the long grass until we get the assay / met results. I expect to see an increase in JORC and especially the high grade switch to indicated. This in turn will drive a higher NPV. Now, here’s where I’m a little lost as I’m on holiday and struggling with any kind of digital access - in the full ss, I remember seeing the capex, opex and revenue schedule (year by year), if they can mine the increased high grade area quicker, this will compound the effect on both NPV and IRR. Learned friends please help on this point. Anyway, this only leaves one option of what happens next - continued SP increase until we hear any of the above. Again, congrats to all and thanks to the regular posters who continued being positive when it was on it’s arse!
Fwiw, id expect the two main forces at play will be fear and greed and which, may create some consolidation / sideways movement around the 0.05 level until the market makes its mind up before Laurence’s slingshot or the upward move towards the 0.095. Who knows whether this will be hours, days or weeks.
I’m on holiday at the moment with limited access to charts but Indicators are pointing towards being overbought, rsi and lower volume and some oscillators - depending on timeframe. However, there’s no confirmation of a likely reversal. The 0.05 resistance is more psychological than physical as it only offered a moderate pull back on the way down and wasn’t a significant resistance level. RSI was oversold continuously for a long period and didn’t arrest the decline so conversely, this could be ignored on the way up and may continue with a high RSI. What the chart fails to recognise is the asset!!!!
Wow! After months averaging down, often thinking it would never recover but had the resolve to believe I would at least get my investment back at some point, I managed to get to 0.0246. I didn't think we'd see the move before we got the assay results or at the earliest, a confirmation that drilling had completed. Blooming fantastic - I might break even today!