Member Info for Billyboy2fromiii

Matt,

Good post that. I agree with your thoughts.

It sort of makes you want to jump on a plane to Florida, hire a Mustang and cruise round the 500 stores selling Chill and find out just things are actually going. I've done many fly-drives when I was younger but that would be a bit different. Chill hopping in Florida rather than Island hopping in Greece.....

On a separate note, are you from the North (City fan like Fred aren't you?)? I was talking to the Chill/Zoetic International Brand Director this week. He is fully aware that not all of us are from the South and hopefully there will be some future events to attend North of Watford.

BB2.

Seb,

Yes, I fully agree that one quarter in isolation could be VERY misleading....

It is possible that loads of stores could have had near empty shelves and be on the very of re-ordering. Such a scenario could have meant a substantial order in early October (or indeed anytime in October). However, my concern is that surely if such a order had been received anytime in October then it would have been mentioned in the 3rd Nov RNS. The RNS was so disappointing that surely management would have used any such positive revenue news since the end of Sept to off-set the bad news RNS? I certainly would have!!!

BB2

Seb,

Yes, I fully agree that one quarter in isolation could be VERY

Morning Matt,

Yes a good debate.

Do you have an opinion re my last post re AATAC?

From my phone calls, I personally know that Chill is selling in the SF stores. It is not (or was not when I called) flying off the shelves (admittedly in one store contacted it was) but certainly selling. However, I have no such evidence as regards the AATAC (or non SF) stores.

My local convenience store is stocked full of various products, some that I have heard of and some that I have not. When I go there, it is generally for something that I need. I would generally not pick up a new product, especially one that i had not heard of.

With very little present/previous advertising, I would suggest that most customers entering an ATTAC store has probably not currently heard of Chill and thus will not be inclined to buy.

Just a few thoughts...

BB2

Seb,

I have delayed so one more post from me as I have enjoyed our debate this morning.

If you are correct (and I am wrong) and there is no issue re-stocking existing stores (so the quoted logistical challenges are merely affecting the roll-out to additional (so we are currently stuck at the approx 2,500 figure) stores rather than the re-stocking of existing stores).......

We do know that revenue has been minimal ($561k for July to Sept). So this suggests possible current lack of demand for the product? We know that the store count is approx 2,500 in total. We know from TG photos and my phone calls that the SF stores are certainly stocking and indeed selling Chill. We know that there are about 800 SF stores in total. I would be happy to assume that CHLL are in most (if not virtually all) of these stores. So that leaves approx 1,700 "others" which are probably predominantly AATAC stores.

Customers visiting a SF store are you would certainly suggest are ideal "target customers". However, customers visiting AATAC stores (convenience stores/ garden centres etc) are probably currently less inclined to buy CHLL smokes or pouches? As you state, with very little current/previous advertising (other than Rodeo) most of these customers have probably never even heard of Chill? From photos of SF and phone calls to SF, we know they are certainly making sales. But are the AATAC stores making sales???

If you are correct that re-stocking is not the problem. Then does this provide a possible answer as to why revenue in the last quarter was so disappointing? And if so, does this explain the recent appointment of Rhino Marketing and Ransom Company?

BB2

Seb,

My last post as I am going out...

1.53 products per day @$4.5 margin from current 2,500 stores would provide annual gross revenue to CHLL of $6.28m.
1.53 products per day @$4.5 margin from targeted (if that is confirmed as target) 10,000 stores would provide annual gross revenue to CHLL of $25.1m.

I have asked for confirmation as to what the "previously announced target" actually refers to. I will post the reply that I (hopefully) receive.

BB2.

Seb,

.....“problems to re-stock existing stores”. - you and Vas keep stating that they have had problems restocking existing stores, can you tell me where you got this from as I can see it anyway?......

You are correct, the RNS(s) do not specifically state this.

They do however state...

The Group and its partners continue adapting to COVID-19-related logistical challenges

international logistics issues influencing speed of rollout

the pace of the programme has been influenced by the widespread international logistical delays.

"While it is regrettable that logistics issues have impacted on the pace of the rollout in the short-term"

So on that basis, you are correct. The Co have referred to speed of roll-out three times and logistical challenges once. I (plus others) assumed logistical challenges to mean transport challenges providing (re)-stock to existing stores. If that is not the case then I stand corrected.

However, if (re)-stocking existing stores is not a problem then that means only a maximum $561,000 has been received to provide for the orders requested to replace stock sold in the existing approx 2,500 stores for the period July to Sept 30th. That would surely suggest that demand for the product is not great?

Personally, like you a shareholder, I would prefer the scenario where demand is great, the cabinets and shelves are empty and that the lack of revenue for the quarter has been purely due to logistical challenges meaning it has been difficult meeting demand from stores for stock.

We will have to await further news from the Company.

Good to debate with you, good luck.

BB2

Seb,

Using your suggested 1/3 stock is still being in the cabinets, my amended model (244,500 trading days rather than your 305,500) would suggest 1.58 sales per store per day. This is actually close to my previously assumed 1.3 sales per store per day).

I appreciate it is pure assumptions from both of us but it does give an idea.

Good to debate with you AND HAPPY TO BE CORRECTED ON MY EARLIER POST

BB2

Morning Seb,

I AGREE WITH YOU. MY ORIGINAL MODEL IS INCORRECT AND SHOULD BE IGNORED. MY APOLOGIES TO ALL FOR MISCALCULATION.

I know it is VERY simplistic but I believe it does serve a purpose.

My amended model is ;

500 stores end of April, 153 trading days to 30th Sept = 76,500
1,000 stores end of May, so 500 additional stores, 122 trading days = 61,000
1,500 stores end of June, so 500 additional stores, 92 trading days = 46,000
2,500 stores end of July, so 1,000 additional stores, 61 trading days = 61,000

So a total of 244,500 trading days.
$2,621,000 revenue received.
Assumed approx $4.5 margin per product.
2,621,000 /4.5/244,500 = 2.38 products per store per day (on the assumption that ALL stock has been sold by 30th Sept and all shelves and cabinets are empty).

BB2

Hi,

Taking my post a step further...

If we assume,
0 stores end of March,
500 stores end of April, 153 trading days to 30th Sept = 76,500
1,000 stores end of May, 122 trading days = 122,000
1,500 stores end of June, 92 trading days = 138,000
2,500 stores end of July, 61 trading days = 152,500
2,500 stores end of Aug, 30 trading days = 75,000
2,500 stores end of Sept, 0 trading days to 30th Sept =0

That is a total of 564,000 trading days.
$2,500,000 revenue received.
Assumed approx $4.5 margin per product.
2,500,000 /4.5/564,000 = 0.98 products per store per day (on the assumption that ALL stock has been sold by 30th Sept and all shelves and cabinets are empty.

BB2

Contd…

I would be interested in others opinions.

Hopefully, this post can be used for a proper debate today.

BB2

Hi ,
Personally think there has been good debate here between Vas, DRB and Seb.

I have been mulling over the last RNS along with all recent previous RNS, especially the 29th July (which first mention of COVID-19 related logistical challenges).

So let us believe that the issues are logistical related (problem to deliver new stock to new stores and problems to re-stock existing stores). This does not obviously affect demand for the product. We already know that smokes and pouches are in stores and these stores are open (lots of photos on TG as evidence). The RNS of 29th July confirmed “ chill products stocked in approx 2,500 multi-state retail outlets”.

So on that basis, surely the shelves and cabinets of these 2,500 confirmed stores (as at 29th July) should now be bare? The photos on TG should now be showing empty cabinets as all stock should have been sold and the store not able to re-stock these shelves and cabinets due to the stated logistical problems.

What we do know is that 2,500 stores were confirmed on 29th July. We also know that revenue received is approx $2,500,000 for period April (see RNS dated 17th May) to 30th Sept (see RNS dated 3rd Nov). So very simplistically, each store has averaged $1,000 revenue. If all store shelves and cabinets are indeed bare then great as this suggests good demand with limited/no supply. However, if that is not the case and there is still stock in the shelves and cabinets, then surely the problem is (al least partially) with demand for the product rather than just the supply of the product?

I was previously mocked when I suggested (based upon my research telephone calls) that sales were in my opinion approx 1.3 products per store per day. Indeed, it was suggested by some that actual sales would be two to three times my figure.

So let us test that theory (with an admittedly unrealistic example)…. If we (unrealistically) assume there were NO sales by ANY store between April and 29th July (the date it was confirmed there were 2,500 stores stocking Chill), and that these 2,500 stores were actually fully stocked on 29th July. Let us now (unrealistically) assume that all shops have sold ALL their stock by 30th Sept and ALL shelves and cabinets are totally empty on 30th Sept. That means that, with the average $1,000 revenue per store and an (admittedly assumed) margin of $4.5 per product, each store has sold approx 222 products over 63 days so a maximum 3.5 products per day…. We can safely assume that sales WERE actually being made by stores from April through to 29th July (indeed RNS confirm products “well received”). We can also safely assume that ALL shelves and cabinets are indeed NOT currently completely bare. So on that basis, how many products per day have the confirmed 2,500 stores actually sold? I believe that the above suggests that the current lack of revenue ($560k for quarter July to Sept) not being solely down to the stated logistical problems. I would be interested in others

The direct link is....

https://chillbrandsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/CBG-GM-Oct-2021-Shareholder-QA.pdf

BB2

Hi,

I have just had confirmation that the Q&A from the GM is now uploaded to the Co website.

Here is the link...

https://chillbrandsgroup.com/investor-relations/corporate-documents/

Regards, BB2

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZOE/update-on-8216chill8217-orders-iyng1j3sc8e7wgq.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZOE/business-update-xb5tuouyjyigb6f.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CHLL/trading-update-v2jnfyf78bprfgs.html

April $0.34m
May $1.0m
June $0.72m
1 July to 30 Sept $0.56m

BB2

Uni,

click on the following link to access the Zoetic UK CBD Shop

https://zoetic.com/products/best-cbd-gummies-in-the-uk

The Gummies (Berry Burst and Tropical flavours) are currently discounted to £30 (from normal price £45).

If you apply the Discount Code TRYZOETIC you will get a further 30% (£9) discount off the price , making the purchase price £21 rather than the full price of £45.

I hope that helps you.

BB2

Matt,

It is quite ironic that I was kicked off TG because I dared to suggest the sp could drop to 19p should we not get a "decent" Update for the quarter...…..

BB2

Seb,

Yes, I have been a member in the past. I didn't say that I wasn't.

I would be interested in reading the recent excellent debate so could you post me the link to re-join please.

BB2

Matt,

You have to be invited. You cannot simply join via a link.

Genuine request.

BB2

Morning Matt,

Perhaps you could provide me the link to TG as I would be interested in reading the recent excellent debate.....

I have received a reply from Buchanan to say my email regarding yesterday's RNS has been passed to the Company "who will provide a response in due course"......

BB2