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Not really, everyone knew it was a matter of time before the vaccine roll out affected the share price positively. Now The news gets better daily. The chance of lockdown lifting and never coming back also grows, and you can bet your bottom dollar that holiday websites will crash under the load!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/941377
"The new man, Panos Kakoulis, is no doubt a splendid chap but the positive move by the share price is probably as much to do with a general demand for travel-related stocks, as the vaccine roll-outs across the world give holidaymakers reason to start contemplating booking a summer holiday"
Double the volume on Friday! Also the last hour, there seems to be a volume increase on this afternoon. Every hour that passes is an hour nearer to the symbolic announcement that lock down measures are starting to ease. I think that's why the market is reacting in general, it seems like we are definitely on course to start returning to normal which is huge.
Nothing the market hasn't already priced in to be honest. It's obviously a risky investment. A new CFO and talks of potential mergers will have shorters quaking in their boots. I would expect a barrage of negativity on this board into opening tommorow, as the shorters scramble to minimise the damage that the new cfo announcement could do to them.
I don't know the future but my experience of new appointments is that the market generally reacts positively. Some article written in the times outlining what we already know and purely rumour/opinion based isn't going to sway the reality that is already apparent.
7 days before a potential positive covid announcement and confirmation of 9 billion liquidity with only 4bn potentially going by the end of year to me isnt that negative, considering the market is sentimnet driven.
What if air travel opens in June and July and we have a 5 or 6-month head start on the end of the year? Those projected worse than expected revenue losses, will certainly be readjusted?
I think if you are coming to this board with investing in mind, then I will try to sum up how I see this company and hopefully give you a balanced view.
The short term risk is that the lockdown isn't lifted in the next month or 2. Not because rolls will go bankrupt, but because they may have to devalue the business by selling more assets and more sections of the business to stay afloat(meaning a slower recovery/less revenue/profit). A business will not concern itself with investors and more with it's own survival. So if it's a choice between keeping investors happy and surviving we will lose every single time. So this is what I would consider a risky investment,
If you like taking a risk, then the payoffs could be double or triple your original investment. This share will hit £3-4.00 within 12 months if things go our way. The main consideration for buying I would say is that you need to be happy taking a high-risk high reward strategy. You could easily lose20-50% of your investment short term and get trapped for 4-12 months waiting.
But if it pays off, it will be the investment of the year. Rolls have a lot of projects in the pipeline but they require billions in investment, so although positive, cannot be factored into the companies value. The main value comes from flying time. That is what you are gambling on.
I personally think looking back at the charts for the past 12 months that, the recovery will be blistering and that the 22nd of Feb won't be definitive for an answer to air travel. I think we will find out more during March when pressure starts to mount from both the engineering sector and the airlines.
Obviously do your own research, but I think this share is worth taking the risk if you don't need the money!