Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Should have put my targets on last post.......
So gold should now be commencing another big upward leg, a bit like it did from the early June low of $1670 when it gained $400 to the July high. I have a target around $2280 - based on three separate calculated targets - (two targets based on previous impulsive waves and a third target from the triangle pattern it's been in for the last 4-weeks).
However, i think that will be the final bull run ahead of a protracted reactive phase, but not yet!!. I did a point and figure target several months ago calculated from the 6-year ($1046-$1400 approx) base pattern that came out to $2400. It could do that with a fair wind! After that though I would not be so bullish in the first half of 2021. It looks very good now though!!!
(Point and figure eliminates the time element and just focusses on up and down price changes). It is usually quite accurate. Ch
I'm pretty certain that gold bottomed yesterday at $1906.30!
It's as oversold as early June - the daily MACD histogram is stupendously oversold!
The 4-week triangle pattern looks complete.
Yesterday was a cycle low.
The weaker phase in August from the all-time high has set gold up to rise in its historically best month of the year- September!
Plus the daily coppock indicator turned up yesterday from just below zero!!
Silver is fairly similar - that's going up too!
Very busy day yesterday then, over 200 m shares traded, though both buyers and sellers!. Nevetheless, the key was to close over 0.13 p. So the 0.1375p seen was excellent. That took out the Aug 17th and 27th closing highs both at 0.13p.
Bonus was surpassing the highs of May and July at 0.1325p and 0.1350p, respectively. I've read all the fundamental stuff which you are all familiar with. There's enough there to keep the interest high, but like everything its always open to different interpretations. That's one of the key reasons i analyse charts. What i'm really doing is analyzing the collective mood of investors that drive trends . Only charts can do that. They don't lie, only thing is ones analysis can be wrong . Hopefully i've got this one right!
So, whats nice about is that the 200 day moving average has now turned up after falling for a year. It takes a lot to turn up an average this long. The trend of rising prices, despite all the short term profit scalping merchants, is nicely UP. WE have had FOUR higher lows since 16th July's 0.09p low, the last on 2nd September at 0.115p.
It was a slight shame that we pulled back a bit from yesterdays 0.16p peak, but that happens quite often and the up trend continues. Clearly today was a pause for breath, much much lower volume (which is good). My initial target remains 0.18p, and that may or may not be helped by gold, which now looks good again. I'll post a little bit on gold in a following post.
The chart is still looking good. We have broken out of the 7-8 week diamond pattern though by trading sideways. The price ( and that is mid price) needs to see an end of day close over 0.13p. That will clear resistance from 6 daily highs that began from 15th July. That should be enough to attract a lot more buyers and we should then get to the first 0.18p target quickly. If we get over 50 million shares traded on the break over 0.13p that will break the trend of declining daily volume from the peak of just over 200 million shares traded on 28 July when we peaked at 0.1525p. The recent dip to 0.115p bounced from the rising 50 day moving average. Its all looking good guys. Stay patient and wait.
Its pays to be patient because we now have the breakout from the 7-8 week diamond pattern, that actually occurred yesterday, though only just (closed at 0.124p....the downtrend resistance of the diamond was at 0.1225p). Still that was a strong up day, and the previous days low of 11.25p came bang on the gently rising 100 day moving average. Today the close is shown as 0.13p, so if that is correct we have a confirmed breakout. The shorter term averages of 15 day, 30 day and 50 day are also rising. So, that suggests the sideways trend since last October is in the process of changing to UP. The target from the diamond pattern is 0.18p or so, maybe it does 0.20p, on the initial run, we'll see. Furthermore, the MACD histogram has turned up for the first time since falling for 6 days. it is still beneath zero on the scale which means there is scope for the price to keep on rising. Also as the MACD line (as opposed to the histogram of it) is ABOVE zero (which means the shares are in a bullish trend and there is no reason to suspect that will not continue. I loaded up with another load at 0.114p as it still looked right. Looking at this chart, it should rise again tomorrow, if no news comes out (that's 50/50 on that i'd say) then that will be an opportunity to load up with some more. Don't forget that 0.18p to 0.20p is only the initial target.
Ha ha.....came across this last year and saw that David Fraser was CEO or Chairman. Anyway i used to work with him at Quilter Goodison in the mid 1980's. He was on the dealing desk....he knew sod all about mining. interestingly after he left last year after 6 years (how did he last so long) the price has stopped falling and now its looking great on the chart, so i'm in for 10k at 0.13p. So, a diamond pattern has formed on the chart in the last 6 weeks WITHIN a base pattern of over 10 months. Also, the new bloke in charge cant be any worse than Fraser and with a bit of luck he might know something about mining! My initial target is 0.18p, based on the width of the widest part of the diamond pattern - approx 0.10 to 0.15 - measured up from the breakout level of the diamond - currently at 0.13. it has't broken out yet - its right on that trigger point and thats where we have stalled. No surprises there. I agree that this is like a coiled spring ready to explode. Just a little more patience. Maybe it does 0.20p on the first bull run. The 10 month base pattern could easily take it to 0.40, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet
It must be said that I wasn't expecting AXM to fully recover this mornings RNS inspired dump. Maybe a bit but not 100%. So, I can only take to this to mean that an important trend change from long term down to up is actually occurring (which ties in with my recent technical analysis). Just regarding placings on AIM stocks. Generally they tend not to be particularly positive, in that dilution and a gravy train for Directors is the view taken generally in the market. However, I think in AXM's case, dilution is not really an issue. Er Why...well because the market cap is tiny, but the potential from significant royalty payments ( which is looking more likely given Accudo's commitment, plus The Turkish proses Zinc project) will dwarf a market cap that's is even twice or three times the size as it is now. Gravy train for Directors, nope, they take minimal salary unlike some other money grabbing ba....ds. Back to the chart......
So you all know about the 10 week cycle (based on lows) now we are at the start of week 6. There is also a 20 week cycle the last low occurring the same time as the most recent 10 week, ie just over 5 weeks ago. That means a cycle peak from that is not due until at least another 4-5 weeks time. You could still get some near term weakness because the 10 week is starting to roll over. However, given the stronger influence of the 20 week cycle the dip, if it occurs and which may not be much, should be followed by a stronger advance. I hope you get this so far. Also, looking at charts is an art as opposed to science (well there is some of that as well!). So, I can see a pattern that I call a cycle of three. How can I put it, hmm say like a head and shoulders pattern...that's three cycles. In AXMs case it started in April 2018 (price around 0.11p) but with a down sloping neckline. The final decline (late May to June) was very steep which was good as far as I and the chart were concerned. That occurred in the final third cycle which then sets the price up for a recovery. (head and shoulders patterns either complete or fail.....which usually means a sharp move down or a strong move up). You see when the third cycle ends you usually get a strong move. Also, there is the 41 month cycle (and the low just recently was the THIRD). Finally, if the price can close (on a weekly basis...so a Friday) at or ideally over 0.0525p that will get it over the mid point moving average of the weekly Bollinger band. That basically means its turned bullish!
Just in case anybody was wondering who's been buying shares recently. Well I bought 3m yesterday near the close and another 5m today. Gets me up to 55m, just under a disclosable stake. I could buy another 1m, but then you'd find out who I really am. Why buy more shares you ask. Well the chart for one thing. I know I said that this week is halfway through a 10 week cycle. That is true and why would I buy shares on the theoretical high point of that cycle. There are many cycles, not just a 10 week. There appears to be a much larger 41 month cycle for instance, so three cycles back takes you to around the start of 2009, the depths of the financial crisis. I think the 41 month cycle low has occurred very recently. It got to that point (about .025p) after the steep price decline which took place in May and most of June. That also left the price way overextended below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. So, we have already bounced back a bit, but there is further to go. We are currently flirting with the 50 day around .04p (mid price) the 200 day is a lot higher around .074p. I'm not saying its going straight back up to that level straight away. It could I suppose, but i'm not getting excited about that. What is interesting is that usually with downward price spikes, the price usually bounces back quickly. This recent time its spent about 4 weeks making a small base pattern before rebounding. That suggest to me that a more sustainable recovery could be in prospect. Certainly the fact that (if I am right) the 41month cycle has bottomed then that would suggest it too.
Fundamentally, the outlook does appear to be turning more positive. They got the General Meeting resolutions passed so they now have leeway to raise more funds. Accudo seems to be getting more serious now, and in the absence of the Copper project in Turkey with Deep South (which I am still a bit sceptical) they do have the Zinc tie up with Proses which seems to me to be the agreement which looks more likely to bear fruit. Don't pin you hopes on Multicom. It may come off but id give that less chance than possibly Deep South actually, though I could be wrong. No I think Accudo and Proses are more likely to bring home the bacon. Also, I think some sort of larger financing deal is a possibility, maybe with Accudo or someone else. So given the Technical and fundamental out look, I just had to buy more!
Well that's an interesting question, but alas how could anyone know the answer! You need to know what their annual production is likely to be, how many years of production, what metal or metals they will be producing. Suffice to say millions of dollars I would have thought, but how many millions that is indeed the question. That's just one company!
Looks like it might be starting to run now.
Missed the last bit of the RNS.....
Under the joint venture with Alexander's Principal Technological Consultant, Dr. Nicholas Welham, an acknowledged expert in lithium and hydrometallurgy, the Company has been investigating and discussing potential next steps to follow up on the interesting results announced for a potential new hard rock heap leaching process for the extraction of lithium from hard zinnwaldite rocks.
Corporate
Alexander's board of directors (the "Board") is pleased that all the resolutions at the annual general meeting and the general meeting of the Company held on 28 June 2019, were duly passed.
The Company now has the ability and flexibility to issue new shares, whether as part of an equity fund-raising or as consideration for the acquisition of new assets, as and when an opportunity may arise which may complement or enhance the Company's business.
The Board has been considering several complementary opportunities of interest in the mining sector.
The Company is pleased to report that it has either paid or has agreed waiver of payment on all amounts outstanding to current and former directors of the Company in respect of deferred payments of directors' fees identified in note 20 and included under Trade and Other Payables (note 14) of the Annual Report and Accounts for the year ending 31 December 2018. The total amount outstanding of GBP300,728 as at 31 December 2018 has been reduced in full to zero.
Thanks uNkwn. just in case anyone hasn't seen the RNS:
11 July 2019
Alexander Mining plc
("Alexander" or the "Company")
Corporate Update
Alexander Mining plc, the AIM-listed mining, minerals and metals processing technology company, is pleased to give this corporate update.
Australia
Accudo Metals Pty Ltd ("Accudo") advises that it is currently working to deploy the licences it holds for Alexander's AmmLeach(R) patented technology ("Leaching Technologies") across more than one project in Australia. Accudo has a licence entitlement for up to five mining projects (each a "Project") in Australia to use its Leaching Technologies, subject to securing commercial terms with the Project owners.
Accudo has recently submitted indicative bids to acquire or to be the lead partner in a number of Projects.
The Chairman of Accudo, Dr Saliba Sassine, said it was in discussions and negotiations with asset owners or their advisors and is energetically pursuing its options to deploy the Leaching Technologies.
He added "We have identified several strategic opportunities ranging from projects that have substantial JORC 2012-compliant resources to established and fully permitted mines that are positioned to restart mining and having ores that are potentially amenable to the Leaching Technologies.
"We are in discussions and negotiations with strategic and M&A partners to structure relationships that incorporate funding packages for the Projects under evaluation and bids."
Deep-South Resources Inc
Under the technology licensing and consultancy agreement between Alexander Mining plc, MetaLeach Limited (collectively, "Alexander") and Deep-South Resources Inc. ("Deep-South") dated June 27, 2018, Deep-South has acquired a licence to use certain technologies owned by Alexander for the consideration of the issuance of 500,000 common shares in Deep-South (current value approximately GBP30,000) and a royalty of 2.5 per cent. of gross saleable metal products produced from a potential mining operation at the Kapili Tepe polymetallic project in Turkey, if using Alexander's leaching technologies.
Deep-South has issued the shares after receiving TSX Venture Exchange approval.
HyperLeach(R)
Testwork is currently underway on a nickel concentrate from an existing commercial operation. The aim is to leach around 50% of the contained nickel and cobalt and produce a mixed sulphide precipitate which is free from copper, arsenic and iron. The sulphide will be blended with the leach residue and sold for further processing as a low arsenic material. Analytical results from the initial proof of concept work are expected in the next few weeks.
If successful, further developmental testwork will be proposed in partnership with the concentrate producer.
Lithium research and development
Under the joint venture with Alexander's Principal Technological Consultant, Dr. Nicholas Welham, an acknowledged expert in lithium and hyd
If you wanted a reason for the shares to soar, you've got two! God you really are all slow on the uptake!
This is the fourth week of the 10 week cycle. What does that mean.....well the cycle is based on low points, so the high point is due on the fifth week in very simple terms. Think about it !
Forgot to add.....end of 1st sentence 2nd paragraph. .....are in contact with if you attend the meetings.
You don't get all the info from the RNS's. You learn things by speaking to the directors. That is the same for all companies!
This post is directed at all those here who did not attend the AGM and GM today who post negative and ill informed comments and views about a company they do not fully understand.
You will only get a clearer and thus realistic understanding of what AXM is all about and the number of companies they are in contact with. Yes it is taking a long time to get actual revenue but what they are trying to do is fight against the established mining companies that use conventional acid consuming processes and are unwilling to convert to AXM's process for a number of reasons. You will only understand why it has been a long haul when you speak to Alan Clegg and Martin Rosser personally. They are actually nearer to revenue than they have ever been and yet the share price has sunk to extreme depths. So much so in fact that I bought another 10m this morning before I got on the train to go to the meeting.
Yes I know the number of votes that were cast in favour of and against the three resolutions. However, why should I tell any of you what that was when you could not be bothered to attend.
If you travelled down from S****horpe Chesh maybe you too would be enlightened and perhaps you wouldn't have been trying to influence people for voting against which is in no ones interest. That goes for everyone else too.
If I didn't have confidence in their resolve and determination to get the point where a revenue stream is an actuality then I wouldn't be sitting on 50m shares. I am the only one here who has known Martin for 30 years so I should know what I am talking about. True nothing is 100% guaranteed but I am prepared to give them more time to reach their goal. We all need to support the company because when they do reach commercial success then you don't need to be a genius to work out that the share price will rise to many multiples of what it is now (even after the 60% rise today). A 100 fold increase would be 4p for example. They were 30p some years back. Also, there is a 10 week cycle operating on this stock. The last cycle low was two weeks ago which means the cycle high is another three weeks ahead. The last cycle high occurred on the fifth week, the one before that on the fourth week.
All the best!!
Hi Phil,
Its a shame you have voted against the companies ability to raise funds. Because as a shareholder with a fair few million shares you have just increased the risk that AXM will in 6 months time be delisted and yours and everybody else's shares will be worthless.
I don't understand the logic of wishing us all good luck. Is that good luck in sending a rocket up the BOD while sending one up yours and everybody else's who have shares also. Think about it.
By the way Funky is a very good friend of mine who is voting yes to the resolutions. Presumably you missed his post just 20 minutes before yours.
Its a same also that Chesh is also in your camp. Trying to persuade anybody who wants to listen to vote against is quite illogical, not in terms of himself (he either has very little AXM shares or none) but for other shareholders who agree with him. They too are making it more likely their shares will become worthless. He obviously doesn't care and is very bitter. That's understandable given the crap ride we all have had so far.
However, just remember that the company is debt free (except to all of us...lol), has an extensive set of patents which are worth arguably multiples of £millions and three projects, all of which have the potential to bring in revenue.
However, the patents will only be worth £millions when they achieve commercial success, then they can go on the asset side of the balance sheet. If you vote against the resolutions you will be complicit in forcing the company out of business. Its obviously going to be a couple of years before any revenue comes in, so they need cash to get to that point. You all must have realised that before the announcement of the general meeting. So if you vote against you are signing the death warrant of your shares.
was soaked up nicely. I think it softened the price a little bit that you could deal inside the 0.115 to 0.125 official spread. Could buy today at 0.1205 as a couple have done. I got my fill of 8m (at 0.1233 annoyingly) a day or two ago. Now its 0.1218 to buy (did a dummy 1m buy). Its still very oversold and Wednesday's tick up was the first in over two weeks.
It will be exactly two years tomorrow since the Accudo licensing deal was RNS'd to the market. Plus the 26 week cycle low was last week. The first update of that deal was made 26 weeks after the initial announcement of 25th Aug 2016. Nothing since (apart from progress updates within other RNS's, but none solely about the Accudo deal). So basically what i'm saying is that there could be an update either later today (probably unlikely now) or realistically on Tuesday after the bank holiday.
However, this is pure speculation on my part, but even if we don't get one yet the price is due to swing higher again based on the cycles which have worked pretty well so far. That is why i'm in for another 8m shares!