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Whingeing indicator has, just like those getting off after one spin of the London eye, begun to dissipate. The first passengers have entered the glass pod as the constant cycle begins to rotate higher, accompanied by quiet whispers of - i'm looking forward to the view high above the ground - and everything is becoming clearer now and we've left the rabble far behind.
However, you know your reaching the top when the cries of ......oooh I can see for miles - doesn't everyone and everything look tiny down there - plus the whoops of joy as punters salivate on thoughts of fast cars, mansions and er a new kitchen with an AGA.
of the Accudo deal is this Saturday. Nearest trading day is this Friday 24th. 26 week cycle low was last week.
8m in three tranches.
Looks to me like the market makers are up to their old tricks again. They mark the price up a little bit first thing, get buyers coming in, then make it look like people are now selling based on the spread price which does not reflect the price you can deal at. I just did a dummy buy of 73,717 exactly as the last trade and the price quoted was 12.50p. So the last trade at 12.48p was a buy, as were virtually all of the trades today. They want your stock!
Well I guess you havn't properly looked at the chart, (if that's the case) but that's ok as not many people do. I would say though that in AXM's case the cycle stuff is not theory as it already been following a 40 day cycle and also the 26 week cycle is clearly evident. The cycle lows do not always line up exactly, nothing is perfect, but if the cycle analysis is correct the average cycle length of 40 days or 26 weeks or whatever cycle has been identified should come out over many cycles. You may get a run of 40 days exactly, then it goes 35 days, 37 days, 43 days, 33 days, 48 days etc. But as long as the total of the cycle lengths come out to around 40 days over time then you know that the cycle is correct. I agree that often small mkt cap stocks don't always show clear cycles or even have ANY cycles. Clearly that situation is most likely based on liquidity or rather the lack of it. In AXM's case, the price is showing clear trade able fluctuations despite at times there not being much liquidity and on those days the price usually does nothing. However, volume increases enough on other days, either at a cycle reversal or during an upswing or downswing phase to move the price accordingly. I have a core position of 30m shares at the moment. I did have 41m but took profits on or near cycle highs with a view to getting back in when the opportunity arises. Also, using bollinger bands to aid position entry lessens the risk of losing money. So far its gone very well.
Made a miscalculation on the 26 week cycle low chaps. Have gone over it several times to make sure I wasn't dreaming or drunk.. The 26 week cycle was actually due last week, not the week before that!
Last week the price hit 0.1175p (mid) which was the lowest weekly close in 17 weeks. This has left it very oversold on a weekly basis with the weekly stochastic indicator at its most oversold since Feb 9th - the end of the last week of the previous 26 week cycle low.
This means that recent weakness should now be coming to an end and be replaced by positive pressure on the share price. This leads me on to why the price should start rising! I can understand that many of you will be sceptical about charts, and also about the BOD at AXM. True, they seem to have dragged their heels for a very long time and lots of unfulfilled promises so far.
However, things do change and for me the chart often provides a clue as to when changes might be about to occur. AXM moves on sentiment, which tends to follow on from RNS announcements. I can see that clearly from a daily chart of AXM back to the end of last year for example which I labelled with specific key RNS announcements. For example, the Deep South Resources RNS re the Turkey copper project came out on the morning of the AGM, a day or two after the share price had been trending down for several weeks.
Sentiment began to improve from then on, aided by a statement from Clegg at the AGM (the timing of which turned out to be bull****) that DSR would acquire a 75% stake in the project WITHIN two weeks. However, everyone was hopeful that an RNS would soon follow and the price trended nicely higher for just over two weeks, aided also by the Chile patent news three days later (from AGM).
The lithium update (re AXM hiring Wardell Armstrong to audit the results) on 17th July was the top and we have been sinking ever since. No doubt on lack of news from DSR and scepticism rising again about the quality (if you like) of the BOD, Clegg's name is now mud!
What's interesting is the fact that key RNS's like DSR/Turkey and the Lithium update occurred when the share price was at an extreme (one oversold and the other overbought). That then provides the opportunity for the alert trader, or someone wanting to add or shave a core holding.
The grant of share options RNS a couple of weeks ago occurred when the price was very oversold and a rally occurred. However, as we know the price has faltered since and slipped back again. However, this has left it oversold once more AND the 26 week cycle low was last week!
One last point is that the original Accudo licensing deal RNS (25th August 2016) came out a week after a 26 week cycle low. Also, an Accudo progress RNS came out 26 weeks later on 20th Feb 2017. We have had nothing from Accudo (in terms of an RNS relating solely to that project) since then. Both of these came out on the week following the cycle lows. Next week is a week after the cycle low!
unexpected, (just saying like).
of luck we should get a positive RNS on one of AXM's key projects (or maybe something new) either this week or next week.
My logic for this is based on the 26 week cycle. Important RNS announcements followed the week after cycle lows were posted.
Week after cycle low - 2016 - Aug 22 to 26 - Accudo Licensing deal RNS out on 25th Aug of that week
Week after cycle low - 2017 - Feb 20 to 24 - Progress on Accudo license agreement RNS out on 20th of that week
Week after cycle low - 2017 - Aug 14 to 18 - Lithium J/V update (15th) & Comm Intro agreement Duard Cap (16th)
Week after cycle low - 2018 - Feb 12 to 16 - Comm and Tech agreement with Proses- Turkey & Iran (21st - week later).
The latest 26 week cycle low was due Aug 6th to 10th, though looks to have occurred a week early on Thursday 31 July. However, we had no announcements last week (orthodox cycle low date) so its very possible this week in keeping with tradition, though could stretch out to next week (as the Proses RNS was).
Keep your chins up!
Seeing as some of you seem to be getting a bit frustrated with lack of progress etc, let me put this in perspective.
As far as the fundamental are concerned, we are all guessing as to when anything real is going to come out in the way of an RNS re Accudo, Deep South, Multicom etc etc, so many irons in the fire. The only people that really know are messers Rosser/Clegg, and maybe Nick Welham and Garry Johnston. Then even they don't really know as its in the hands of the three companies (maybe more..Proses etc etc) I first mentioned to make their decisions and or come up with some progress announcements that can be transmitted to the market. All this conjecture by us on this board is guesswork, though some of it calculated guesswork, but guesswork all the same.
What I can do is analyse the reality that is the price action of the share price, in other words the chart. Sometimes charts are not too clear. In this case it has been very clear that there is a 40 day cycle in operation here (and for other stocks as well...though maybe 35 day or 37 day whatever, but they are there if one looks).
Plus there are other cycles as well, not just one, these longer cycles are what produce the bigger longer term moves. For AXM the 40 day has until now just provided the shorter term up and down swings that I have been using to make some money while I (and all of us) wait for the big upward breakout that the longer term cycles will produce.
Just to recap on the chart so far. It looks like the 40 day cycle bottomed last Tuesday at 0.1125p, this was two days ahead of schedule. Nothings perfect, one can't expect the cycle lows to be bang on 40 days every time. That brings me onto the next larger cycle the 26 week. This is due to bottom this week! However, it doesn't have to bottom bang on 26 weeks, it could be a week early or maybe two weeks early or even one or two weeks late. I think if it was going to bottom this week it probably should have started to drop back yesterday or maybe today, which it hasn't done so far, and it would need to get back to 0.1125p or lower.
It doesn't look like its going to do that, could be wrong, but at the moment the price seems very firm. Of course, just because the low may now be in it doesn't mean the price is going to go rocketing north just yet,. We may just trade sideways for another few days, a week or maybe two. Maybe two is less likely but possible, particularly if the 40 day cycle is right translating again.
Hang on in there!
of the 40 day cycle and after the 11m (bored/panicky investor) share dump this morning, the price has rebounded to leave a bullish engulfing (two day) pattern on the chart. It left the exact opposite (bearish engulfing pattern) at the top 38 trading days ago. It may well be that today was the cycle low and the not insignificant amount of buy volume could support that view.
However, I still mention the fact that the 26 week cycle is not due to base until the week commencing next Monday and it is still possible that a secondary drop before the 40day/26 week cycles bottom. I did manage to pick up another 2m shares at 0.12p this morning, though missed another 2m at the same price. I have more than that though to re-buy so will wait and see if it does indeed dip back after the rally underway now. This rally was expected but I can't say for certain whether it is the start of the next big upswing just yet.
He has no skin in the game because AXM is permanently in the close period, as they are talking to at least one company at any one time. This we know as so many of us have said on this thread by virtue of all the many irons in the fire that AXM has on the go. Also have you met Gerry Beaney from Northland capital. Nothing gets past him. If any director or employee were to buy stock when it is illegal to do so, Gerald will be down on them like a ton of bricks. https://www.northlandcp.co.uk/staff-appointment-4/
I met him at the April UK Investor show and though he is short, his piercing eyes and intense stare suggested to me that he is one to be very careful with. While I agree it would be excellent news if the Directors had skin in the game, it does seem highly likely that it has been nigh on impossible for them to buy any shares. I think the granting of options recently is the only way they can get exposure. Once again maybe I am wrong and Martin has been lying to me, but I have known him for thirty years, so I have some inkling as to his character and whether he is being straight with me.
bought back 2m @0.12p. Have more to go, but as its reached first buy level i'm back in. Will wait to buy more as the days unfold.
We are not the only ones buying and selling theses shares here. The price drop should be of no surprise, given that this share has being going up and down in a 40 day cycle, at least since last October, and in fact since 2016. The 40 day cycle low is due this Thursday, but as I said in my last post could be a couple of days early or late. It has done this before, but the cycle averages out at 40 days overall. Every share operates within certain cycles, some are clearer than others. At the moment, certainly at least from last October it has been VERY clear. One has to understand that there are other different length cycles at work too, so that is why sometimes a cycle seems to disappear - it is being squashed if you like by larger more dominant cycles going in the opposite direction. When they are all going in the same direction (or the majority) then that's when the real fireworks can begin.
At the moment, the 40 day is down, the 26 week is down and so is the 9 month cycle. However, come the week commencing the 6th August, the 40 day will be rising, and the 26 week will be due to bottom. The 9 month will still be falling until mid November. However, the 18 month is rising, the 54 month is rising and the 9 year is rising. Bear in mind though that with the longer cycles in particular it takes a little while before they start building up to maximum strength and thus IMPACTING the share price trend. So that's why the 54 month and 9 year cycles (which bottomed in February) haven't yet kicked in.
There is a very good chance though that they will start to do so during August and September. Then the 40 day cycle might not be so apparent (the downswing part of subsequent 40 day cycles may became very minor, just a sideways pause before another surge higher).
By the way I am not trying to be clever, just giving you all my view as to the possible movement in the share price based on objective analysis. I could be wrong, maybe I have missed something, quite possible.
The current fall from the recent peak has been quite steep, though no worse than some previous ones this year. While its becoming oversold (33 on the 14 day RSI at 0.12p) the cycle low is not quite yet due, so a rally which is possible very soon may be followed by another downswing. It has done this before. However, I would have thought the bottom is going to be somewhere around 0.1150p to 0.1200p to buy. If it went any lower than 0.1150p, well that really would be a bargain.
I also read everything everyone is saying about the fundamentals, and it is really good stuff, keep it up! By the way Martin Rosser is Alexander mining! So anyone who wants him sacked, needs their head examining, no offence!
Not my sells, I sold 11m between last Tuesday and Wednesday. Now have 30m. I did take my own advice. As I said the price has been fluctuating like clockwork in a 40 day cycle. I am mindful of the fact that the train will at some point leave the station. At the moment it doesn't have all the staff on board. Also, it looks too early to be buying these again. The cycle is not due to bottom until 2nd August and possibly some time during the week commencing 6th August.
If we all take a cold hard look at AXM, there has been nothing released of any substance just yet, but I agree there is a lot of great stuff bubbling away under the surface. Clegg I met for the first time at the AGM and he is the salesman type, so the two weeks was just him getting carried away. (I say that with hindsight, as I believed him as well!) Mind you i'm sure the announcement will come soon. Apologies to anyone who thinks i'm just a trader scalping any share I think there is a quick turn in it. In AXM's case i'm not. I'm keeping a core holding as I believe the upside is substantial, though i'd be foolish to miss the opportunity to make some money while we are all waiting for the train to leave the station. Good luck to all AXM'ers. Dusty, thanks for your positive reactions to my chart ramblings, much appreciated.
Well look James i'm not trying to be clever, I am just posting my interpretation of the chart for anyone who wants to read it and use it in which ever way they wish. I understand all of the fundamental arguments for this share and there is no doubt that some of these are very compelling. We never know when good news will be released, late rather than early...I agree with you there! The chart is reality, in terms of what is actually happening to the price and thus reflects the actions of all market participants. So far the price fluctuations are following a very clear pattern, all I am doing is showing you how I think this is unfolding. It is certainly true that a decent RNS will cause a price spike which analysis of a chart can not always predict. However, a lot of the time price fluctuations can be predicted.
This relates to the 26 week cycle and where peaks have been in the last five cycles starting with the oldest first:
Week of peak Event Price at peak 200 day moving average
6 China patent 0.72p down
2 Accudo license 0.35p down
1 Peru patent 0.18p down
14 Pre placing 0.185p down
14 Final results 0.16p UP
I hope the table comes out ok. It may not.
Anyway, notice how the first three cycle peaks were very early in their 26 week cycles....left translating!
This was due to the trend being down as expressed by the 200 day moving average.
Note how the peak is starting to right translate as the 200 day mov avg has now turned up. This is good news for us all, so lets hope the trend continues!
Well, the price movement in AXM continues to fluctuate within a 40 day cycle. The latest cycle peak was last Tuesday when the Lithium RNS came out. That was on day 28 of the cycle, so that right translated by 8 days, a bullish event. That fitted in with my window for a peak of last Mon/Tues as per my previous post. So what now?
Ok, the current 40 day cycle is due to bottom in 8 days (trading days) time on Thursday 2nd August. This doesn't mean it will actually bottom on that day, just that it could or be a day or two early or late. Nothings perfect!
However, what is interesting is that the next longer cycle of 26 weeks is due to bottom during the week commencing Monday 6th August. That cycle had peaked in May at 0.16p which was week 14 out of 26, so right translating by a week. This suggests that Monday 6th August (two days late for the 40 day cycle low) could be an important low from where upward forces start to build (but potentially any day of that week - though the early part of the week may be more likely- we'll see).
From then we will have the 40 day/26 week/18 month/54 month and 9 year cycles rising. Only the 9 month will be falling (as it is at the moment). The cycles will peak at different times, the first being the 40 day - 3rd to 7th Sep (days 20 to 24). The six month is due to peak week commencing 5th November (yes yes I know bonfire night!) that is week 13 but if it right translates as before then could be the next week, which is also when the 18 month cycle is due to peak (week commencing 12th November). As for the 54 month and 9 year cycles, they are not due to peak until May 2020 and Aug 2022.
Mind you those two longer cycles (which should start to provide bullish influence soon) may not end up being relevant then if AXM gets taken over a little further down the line as AXM will be no more and we would have all been paid off. Personally I would guess that AXM will be taken over by a larger mining company.
Anyway, my interpretation is that a buying opportunity will present itself in around two weeks time (price possibly between 0.12p and 0.13p middle) ahead of a run up between early August and the first or 2nd week in September. I don't think its going to take off until then as technical indicators and orientation of short and med moving averages etc suggest otherwise.
What I would also say is that trading in and out on shortish term fluctuations may start to get dangerous as bullish forces seem to be building up and the period up to mid November, ie the next four months, could prove to extremely profitable for us all. However, don't shoot for the moon, nothing has actually been delivered yet. Keep you feet on the ground. Good luck to all.
From then
Well Dusty, I can see where you are coming from re the chart and all the background doings going on. I agree that all the juicy fundamental stuff going on is most likely a game changer for the share price. As you know I have identified SIX cycles (not just the 40 day one) for AXM and at the moment Four of those are rising.
Those bottomed in Mid February (6 month, 9 month, 18 month, 54 month and 9 years) , the 40 day did too , though that bottomed again 26 days ago too. The 26 week (6 month) and recently the 9 month are going down now, the 6 month is due to bottom mid to late August. The 9 month has only just peaked out (30 June). So when the current 40 day cycle peaks, three of the shortest cycles of the six will be falling and this may either drag AXM back down for a while, or it could just see only a very shallow drift lower until then.
The thing about the longer term cycles is that they can take a while before their influence starts to affect the share price. There is potential for the share to either go up to say 0.16p by early next week before it drifts off on no RNS appearing next week. That in some ways would be better (strange I know) but this would then set us up for a more shallower drift back to the point around early/mid-August when FIVE of the Six cycles will be rising, and the restricting influence of the falling 9 month (bottom due mid Nov) will be outweighed by the other FIVE. Also, as those longer averages are a bit further along their cycles then the odds improve that the very bullish influence of those will start to catapault the share price. From mid- August to mid- November there is an excellent chance of what we are all dreaming of will become a reality.
If we do spike up to say 0.30p-0.40p-0.50p or higher on an RNS next week, it would be an opportunity to take a profit on a say 25% of your holding with a view to buying them back at a much lower price. As we all know, spikes don’t last for very long. That was in some ways why I have been pointing out when a 40 day cycle peak may be due.
On the bit about the mov avg envelope I meant to say that the price rose for 11 days to the peak as opposed to the envelope which still carried rising as it lags the price. So currently the price has been rising for 9 days. Just to make it clear.
I think the share price peak (for a little while) within the current 40 day cycle is going to occur on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Its always possible that its today, but I don't think so. Here's why (sorry if some of this is not on some peoples radar) :
Firstly we know the current upswing is right translating within the 40 day cycle (over a week ago on Thursday 5th July was day 20 - so the halfway point - but that's been well superseded) . It wasn't doing this at previous 40 day cycle peaks in Nov 2017 and Jan 2018. The next one in March was a bit over halfway at 22 days, but the current one is now 26 days and counting. This means that the chart is getting more and more bullish.
The current upswing is at day 13, the last went on for 15 days, so we may have another two days to go, so Tuesday.
On the last cycle, the price had gone higher to the peak for 9 days after closing above the 200 day moving average. Currently we are day 8, so one more day to go, so next Monday.
Looking at the moving average envelope (basically two parallel curvy lines that follows a 9 day moving average of the price trend) it shows that we have been trending higher for 9 days so far after it turned up. On the last cycle it went higher for 11 days after turning up. So once again, next Tuesday is highlighted.
The stochastic indicator has been max overbought for 9 days now, on the last cycle it was 8 days. This is the only negative if you could call it that. However, bear in mind that if a market is bullish it will stay overbought for longer.
Lastly, the 14 day RSI is only just overbought at 73. It got to 82 on the last cycle. So once again there is scope for this to go higher. Can't predict a day for the peak in the RSI but it looks like next week.
Take your pick Monday or Tuesday for a peak! As far as price is concerned I do not know! However, if we get the RNS we are looking for then.............well anything is possible!