Member Info for BigSi

Don’t EVER listen to rumours from other “heavily invested” parties

DYOR

Didn’t GME go up.??? I’m confused

The desperation intensifies.
Some might say ...lots of little Sheepies helping desperate holders exit higher prior to TD
I say ... crack on !!
Most amusing

Brynjon A. So what’s your agendaB. Let’s reframe that A company employee representing a business making ongoing attempts to raise cash from shareholders .... referring to drill as a “cert” How about option C. Research the technicals yourself which are industry standard- for GCOS & CCOS

It’s seems some never learn - is this the fourth or fifth rise from lows - subsequently falling back to fresh lows.
Each and every rise interpreted as a “big strike” and a “news leak”
All the while LO sold into the volume.
Do we see a pattern???

Another batch of rumours ... following the previous batch that have subsequently proved to be total nonsense... can we see a pattern forming at all???

I can also recall several previous Jman rumours over the years that never came to fruition-
Although the part where a supposedly shrewd businessman with contacts among politicians revealing and thereby potentially exposing those same individuals for revealing information not yet in the public domain rings soooo true -
Anyone buying into this risk on rumours put out there by someone that is apparently heavily invested needs head examined ... but that’s just my opinion.

Looks bad
Hard to get a price on a dummy sell even at 1.85

Novice have you factored in the threefold increase in shares in issue since that point ?
Or the ongoing environmental and political opposition and subsequent effects on BPCs ability to fund project??

It seems not

PRO - yeah I’d suggest similar target price -
Although I think 1p is far to generous on failure due to the nature of funding and the amount of holders all attempting to exit at once - I would be expecting a drop to 0.5p with a possible trade off that low

2.0p .... will it hold
Looking very iffy

Fair value estimates were nonsense -
paid for broker coverage usually is.
A key phrase to pick up on was “whilst BPC is currently trading in line with its peers”

A farm out agreement in 2018 would have avoided the HUGE levels of dilution -
In fact at 3p the market capitalisation was around the same $150m value as during exclusivity period-
Currently additional factors weigh against the SP - environmental opposition- ongoing, including political unwillingness to openly support drilling and extraction, continued fundraising and ongoing dilution. additionally the situation is now binary given that BPC lack the funds to move on to a second exploratory well on PV1 failure.
Also 2018 highs reflected an effort to pump the SP so it wasn’t an exact representation of where the sp should have been IMO.

Key is BPC needed a JV partner ... this was always the prime objective - it didn’t happen .
Hence the poor state of affairs. it highlights the danger of looking at previous SP highs and assuming a return without factoring the changes to fundamentals

Perhaps rather like the exploration licence ... they hadn’t paid their fees

Take your positions folks -
Nothing wrong with a punt - as long as you have a correct understanding of the risk free involved

One more possible BIGSI “motive” ... he’s a realist !!
Strike or duster ... makes no odds to me.
Simply stating facts and fundamentals.
If those facts are inconvenient and uncomfortable to hear - best rethink you position.
This is a high risk speculative play - win or bust.
With shares being converted meantime dilution existing holders and constraining future potential gains- FACT

Next week or two will be make or break - 0.5p or 5p +?
Even on failure BPC will need to keep the prospect of a PV2 well alive to facilitate future funding - via continued shareholders dilution.
However given the nature of existing funding arrangements with LO - dilution and subsequent SP drop would be CATASTROPHIC as LO convert at much lower levels with 15% profit guaranteed- via “reconciliation” in cash or more shares issued. BPC really really really need to find oil - I sincerely hope they do

Still just potentially fully funded ....

Via existing shareholders value destruction... of course

To the extent that the balance of funding under the fixed-price conditional convertible note facility and any proceeds of the Call are available and used, these sources of funding represent a known and fixed level of dilution: approximately 667 million new shares to secure $20 million of capital. Given that these sources of funding are not assured, BPC's stated strategy thus remains to continue to seek alternative funding sources on superior terms, that would result in lower level of share issuance, and thus obviate the need for the Company to rely on these funding sources. Potential replacement sources of capital that BPC is constantly considering, as previously advised to shareholders, include cash-flows from operations, farm-out options or similar transactions, and reserve-based lending facilities.

From the latest funding RNS
In circumstances where neither the balance of the fixed-conversion price conditional convertible notes is available, nor the Call exercised, BPC would need to rely on seeking alternative funding if it was to be able to complete the full intended program of work for 2021 (most particularly in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname). There can be no assurance that BPC would be successful in securing any such alternative funding, and if this were the case, the planned program of work in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname might need to be curtailed or deferred

Even if commercial oil is found, as with most projects of that potential size it would take years of project planing and funding (around $2bn) before first oil - 5 years would be a realistic expectation - at which point it would take years of production to accrue this quantity in tax revenues.
Also -Lest we not forget this is still the exploration phase - there is an election in less than 18months where oil will almost certainly be a confrontation point - production rights have not been assured.

This $2bn sovereign wealth funds is totally unconnected-