Positive outlook for 201326 Dec 2012 08:28
The oil and gas producers have been among the worst performing sectors this quarter, falling an average of almost 7% in the past three months, as the global growth outlook diminishes, despite oil prices remaining relatively stable. Essar Energy (LON:ESSR), an oil and gas explorer, refiner and energy generator, heavily focused toward India, has been one of the poorest, losing 80% of its value in the past two years.
Interim results on 26th November, however, appeal to my contrarian disposition, after reporting a near tripling in operational earnings for the first half of 2012. Higher refining margins and the contribution from a UK refinery it acquired last year offset poor performance at its Indian power business.
The groups Stanlow field, the second largest UK refinery, which Essar acquired from Royal Dutch Shell last year for $350 million, delivered a substantial increase in ebitda due to strong operating performance. The unit earned ebitda of $197.2 million in the first half of 2012 compared with $22.2 million in the first eight months of ownership to March 31st. The company has an objective of adding over $3 a barrel to refining margins at Stanlow within the next two years and confirmed it is already approaching an increment of $1 a barrel towards that.
Essar, which is majority owned (76.72%) by Indian conglomerate Essar Group, has also made encouraging progress at resolving many long-standing problems that have weighed on the share price.
In January, the group was hit by an unfavourable ruling by the Indian Supreme Court that left the company liable for $1.2 billion in taxes, representing half of its market capitalisation. Essar has since agreed a final settlement with the courts and will pay final charges in eight quarterly instalments from January 2013.
Essar has also experienced long delays securing clearance for its coal mines, but last month the Indian government granted the necessary permits, with initial coal production now expected in 15-18 months’ time.
Many challenges still remain, with results from its Indian power business falling below analysts’ expectations and the company’s debt rising to over $8.4 billion. Essar’s management, however, recently declared they are focused on ways to lower its debt burden and have reiterated that reducing debt is a major focus area.
The energy group currently trades on 20x forecast earnings, but with expansion finally emerging analysts are forecasting over 200% growth next year, putting them on a lowly earnings multiple of 8.9x for 2014 and an attractive PEG of 0.1.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/trader-talk/11399/contrarian-turnaround-at-essar-energy-11399.html
The above chart of Essar illustrates the weakness over the past two years, but after trading sideways for the past nine months, recent positive newsflow is putting upward pressure on the moving averages. Bullish divergence between recent chart support at 114.7p and the rising oscillators s