My thoughts16 Nov 2023 11:36
interesting seeing the back and forth discussion on here. quite entertaining.
i’m a shareholder. i bought the last dip with an average of 1.16. for what it’s worth, i’ve sold more than half my position but still holding some.
i’ve been doing some research over this last week and wanted to share my thoughts. hopefully it comes across as balanced, but would welcome views.
my reasons to hold: it’s a disrupter in the market with a ton of potential. it’s hard to deny that. totally agree with others assessment of the potential value based on them achieving a full run rate across all sites. robin seems well connected in the industry and is already involved in government discussions about future of battery recycling. the hard work is done to lay the foundations and they have some great traction.
my reasons to sell: there’s some complex financial manoeuvring going on that i don’t fully understand and if i don’t understand the risk, i don’t like to stay invested. to me, it seems highly likely robin and alex will do a sizeable share issue to the tune of 1bn additional shares to takeover the recyclus business. that will for sure have an immediate impact on the share price and usually these things go in one direction.
they are also changing the ticker to rg1. from my understanding, that will probably involve a ************** and i imagine that shareholders will receive fewer shares than they hold right now. 1:2, 1:5, 1:10. who knows.
as someone else pointed out, the bod have been selling through cbl to avoid having to disclose insider selling. that also doesn’t quite sit right with me and adds an element of doubt.
we’ve had a bunch of positive rns over the last few months, yet the sp is falling.
i’m fairly confident i will lose a good proportion of my investment in the short term. specifically after the takeover. what i don’t know is how much value will be wiped out, how quickly and to what extent the value can be clawed back as the business grows and sp increases.
if the reverse takeover wasn’t happening and the company was unlikely to go through a share issue, i would be loading up. perhaps i might buy in again in the new year but for now i’m sidelined.
again, would welcome thoughts from those more experienced.
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