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This trust has performed as well over the last year (NAV up 50%) as various Japanese trusts sitting on a sizeable premium to asset value. JFJ however is priced at a discount of 8.5%. The management appears sound and one would expect, as always, that value will out in due course.
With the plug being pulled on the proposed massive Atlantic Array windfarm project we have more evidence of a change of sentiment re. 'green' energy. The power has to come from somewhere and with little apetite among investors for any new plant thanks to Mr Milliband's hand of death on the industry Hargreaves finds itself at the sweet spot for some years to come. Up north here where there's muck there's brass!
Rather than meteoric we are in for a period of gradual realisation that , despite the smokescreens of rhetoric and subsidies etc, the green energy projections are hopelessly overblown (viz. lack of apetite for infinis). The reality is that for the forseeable future coal is by far the most cost effective way to produce the power to keep us warm as the cold snap arrives. Hargreaves happen to have astutely positioned themselves,against the odds, to be holding the aces as a dominant player with few players in their space.
I certainly will be keeping an eye on these things-but remember many gas fired plants are now mothballed because they are unable to compete on price with coal, and fracking gas for power is still a way off. The situation is moving fast and the three man executive team at Hargreaves has shown itself to be very light on its feet. For one thing the twelve coal fired power stations under construction in Germany will need coal as well as the rest which currently power 50% of their electricity and Hargreaves import coal from Russia into Germany.
Mrs Moneybags refers to the deluded Upper House acting like King Canute-as the rest of the world moves more to coal powered generation (estimated 25% increase by 2020) they seek to reduce its use. Fortunately those politicians who matter are beginning to feel the force of the futility and cost of green power impacting on their voters and will act accordingly. With little new plant on the horizon to replace the 40%of affordable power that coal reliably produces-to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the demise of its importance will turn out to be grossly exaggerated. Fortunately for us shareholders Hargreaves Group inhabits the real world and has a dynamic future.
Those of us at the AGM detected an air of confidence from the directors following successful acquisition from receiver of the bulk of UK surface mining industry , together with associated equipment. They can benefit from synergies to feed their coke plant and power generation contracts. The clincher is many thousands of acres of potential building land when coal has been stripped-a win-win situation-firstly a rich mineral source, then a land bank. Present valuation seems well behind events.
Mountview have some higher value properties but are mainly interested in the lower end tenanted stuff . They simply wait for the properties to be vacated and sell them , They are not competing for properties that would interest the foreigners with their wads. This market should benefit greatly however from the 'help to buy ' schemes and the portfolio s virtually all in the south-east.
There is no logical reason why this share should deviate from it's upward trajectory.The high of over £73 in 2007 has still to be breached and since that time the company has grown and it's prospects greatly improved with an asset base of residential property largely in the London area worth way above the shareprice. This share has until now been largely below the radar of fundholders who have gone for the bigger players such as Grainger with their massive gearing and foreign exposure. Mountview is a classic example of canny,conservative management who know their market and their quietly effective accumulation of sought after assets is beginning to pay off in spades.
With respect to pablo2, Japanese exports and a strengthening yen have little direct relevence to this I.T, unlike those tied to the blue chips. It is largely about fast growing small cap companies allied to the home market fuelled by an increase in demand as confidence rises. The main requirement is bizarrely a rise in inflation and taxation not rising too severely to choke off demand.
Whilst nothing in life is certain-I have watched Sasol emerge in Jo'burg over the last 40 years , converting coal into petrol while cheap coal was the most readily available and cost effective fuel. Things have changed-especially in America where gas is now the fuel of choice. OCG has developed the same process to make conversion of gas into liquid fuel practicable on a local scale where gas fracking takes place . Having proved their world leadership and credibility with orders coming in from America, where they have a powerful partner, they appear to be in the sweet spot and the sky could be the limit as to how far this could go- no doubt potential preditors will have taken note !
I take on board your point but , like £20 notes c.f. £5 notes-you have fewer of them but they are still worth 4 times the value-but a share split may ultimately happen . Meanwhile the share strength is making my case for me. These and Daejan make a nice pension fund without the hassle of managing the property yourself- I have held and added to both for over 30 years and never felt the need or inclination to sell, especially with the massive asset backing and ever increasing dividend stream.
The Annual Report on close examination reveals that the trading properties are carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value. Last year properties valued at £16.15 million realised £40 million. If one applies this ratio to the rest of the trading properties a figure of around £180 per share asset value is attained. The potential implied discount of share price to asset value is staggering-and mostly in rapidly appreciating residential property in the South East. I am left to assume that the high nominal share price is frightening people.
pablo 2 makes the point that a big holder managed to panic sell a 5% holding at the bottom of the recent range before the subsequent recovery. Once again this highlights the advantage the private investor has over a fund manager with peer pressure driving his or her actions. If your job depends on keeping up with the pack the stock may remain irrationally low longer than you can hold onto your job. We can apply patience and, knowing the quality of the management and value of the inherrent holdings, wait for normality to reign.
Walkley is right-the biggest mistake companies often make is getting into foreign markets they don't fully understand. There is plenty of action in the UK at present to focus management-especially with our ludicrous energy policy which ensures that affordable 'green' power such as Alcane can supply ticks all the boxes.
David Kempton the energy investment guru picks out Alkane in his blog on Trustnet. He points to them being in the sweet spot as to the likely beneficiaries from fracking in the UK with their proven expertise in the conversion of gas to electricity.
Another powerful performance with assets way above share price,dividend up, borrowings and costs controlled. This stock is a play on adroitly managed property , largely residential ,in London and USA. As a long term holder they give me the ability to sleep soundly at night.
Stellar profits, up 25% with an increase of 10p to 175p to the annual dividend (covered over 3 times) confirm the continued excellence of this management. They are a solid asset backed play on London residential property with the x factor.
You misunderstand the point of this stock. DIvidend may be a little frugal but this is a treasure chest of assets, particularly in Brazil with the strategic holding in Ocean Wilsons. All this at a huge discount to asset value. When the time comes watch this bird fly.
Those of us who kept faith with this stock are beginning to be rewarded. The discount rating is falling to more sensible levels well deserved considering the calibre of those at the helm, and the superb assets in their control.