Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
3 weeks until May WTI expires.
Will it go negative again?
Seems less likely now that those left holding contracts in April have been bitten, twice shy and all that.
But the tanks are now even fuller than they were then, and the ULCC's are still sitting full, offshore, waiting.
Except now, you can't get a ULCC for love nor money because a) Saudi has chartered lots (2 to 3 weeks ago for loadings now) and b) so many are sitting full of oil, doing and delivering nothing.
Demand is still as bad as it was in early April, if not worse in the USA as flights come to a complete stop.
It'll be a nail biter for sure!
Well I see (most of) you had a good day! 25% to my 6% on BP.
I never was much of gambler.
Hope it holds up for you guys, but I do still think you have a turbulent time ahead.
....at these levels. However, as I am not UK resident, I cannot buy the shares in the normal way, unless I go down the CFD route, but the spreads there are horrible, almost 2 pence, so not doing that.
So played it safe and have gone long BP instead, will sleep better!
Overall I think oil will improve this summer as cuts take effect and economies SLOWLY wake up, albeit with a risk of 2nd wave.
So good luck to those here, I admire your bravery, this one is not for the faint hearted!
Palma, Mallorca. Used to have a cycle tour company here, now I own a marine company.
Have a nice ride. I normally do 15000km a year and the SPanish shutdown is doing my head in.
No, it's not priced in.
The market is assuming that lockdowns lift by mid summer and that we are more less virus free by the end of the year.
Economy recovers slowly at first, then quicker.
But if the virus comes back hard this winter, all that goes to ****.
Read an article this morning, saying that the 2nd wave in the winter in the US could be much worse than the first.
Colonel, what people tend to forget is that WTI and Brent positions (if not CFDs) are true futures contracts in the sense that you are contracting to buy or sell physical oil.
So in that sense it is a 'real' market. And traded 10 times over because so many players are hedging and speculating.
But the pressure in May has now passed to the June contract (down 50%) so we may see a repeat in 4 weeks time.
This time around though, there won't be any ULCC's left to fill.
I would tend to agree with this, and as we all know crude is always volatile, especially so in these days of virus. So for sure we will see spikes and plunges over the next few weeks.
What they don't mention is the fact that any demand spike will be swiftly extinguished by stored oil. Traders will be keen to sell their stored oil whenever they get a decent bid.
Think of it as a sprinkler system. If a fire starts, it will get doused. Once those ULCC's are emptied and go back to their normal business, THEN maybe we could see some decent, sustained gains.
Looks like no big events of any kind in Europe this summer. I cycle the Etape du Tour every year, (9th fastest 'old' bloke!) and it has been cancelled on 6th July.
Ah you're talking about 2020, sorry, I thought you meant 2021.
60$ isn't too bad at all for Q1 2020, well played.
If the US lifts lockdown completely in June, the virus will spread like wildfire and they'll be back it, but hard this time, in July.
Holy crap it just touched 6$, which would be down what 80%?
Jesus Christ, of course oil isn't finished. This is short term weakness that will clear up in a couple of months. Just about every car out there is still oil powered, and planes, when they do start flying again all use Jet A1.
You mean they hedged at 60$ for jan and feb? What portion of their production? 40%ish no?
All useful info SLift.
Longish, Q1 is trading at 37.50$
Well, if 300k is true, that's an impressive sum - I just trade for pocket money to keep me amused during lockdown. It ain't gonna make me rich, but then I did semi-retire at 34, so...:)
I don't agree with the strict lockdowns, and I believe that the true death rate is less than 0.1%, not 1%, because the number of cases is way, way higher than they think, because so few have been tested.
But this is a highly transmissible disease.
If we don't all get back to work soon, there won't be much to go back to, so painful as it is, some deaths will have to be accepted. If you're in a vulnerable group, then you just have to protect yourself.
Malaria kills 400 000 people every year, and we have learned to live with that......and people still holiday in Africa and the East.
Exactly RD. Rampant, sometimes nonsensical ramping is all good and cheered wholeheartedly whilst any comment that suggests the outlook may be difficult is treated as a criminal offence.
I couldn't give a rat's arse where the share price goes, but it troubles me that the boost all good news, ignore all bad attitude here may lure in naive investors to a loss.
Young, inexperienced investors will read these boards and are easily influenced into thinking all is good with no possible downside. Then they lose half their savings. THink about that next time someone decides to ramp without reason.
And the sheer narcissism of thinking that out there is professional being paid to influence you is just too funny. Honestly, they have far better things to do.
So must confess I needed to sell something today as a kind of hedge, and chose Ryan at first and it barely budged all day so I gave up and moved into Tesla instead.
RYA surprisingly resilient on a day that saw a) discussion of airlines having to keep the middle seat free = disastrous for their economics and b) a ban on all non-Schengen flights.
Maybe it's the very gentle lightening of lockdowns in some countries, although Singapore just went into 2nd lockdown on a big spike in cases, and those guys are good at handling COVID unlike UK and USA.
Perhaps it's just the genuine reason that any bad news is good for RYA because they will be the last man standing?