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5mcf/d from one well is exceptional news. Flowing at more than 52,000, th/d more than the original hedge. With that volume now rolled any unhedged production can be sold at 600p/th in September.
If A4 can flow at even half the rate revenue it alone would make 4.5 million next month.
Then the side track to come.
A portion.
Still has only 39 days left to produce gas to pay the difference betwee n the 45p hedge price and the 277 DA price which q3 has out turned at. Unhedged volume in September is currently cost 550p/th.
They had c.50,000th/d hedged for q3. average day ahead rate so far this quarter has been 277p/th. On forward rates the loss is £5.
50,000 th/d were hedged. even if they rolled 80% they are have been loosing £23000 a day on the previous hedge and that is going to be going to £50k a day for September.
I would be massively surprised if Centrica did turn Rough back into a storage site. They have been selling the cushion gas for the last 4 years. It is currently selling 7.8mcm/d of gas and has been all summer if they were serious about using it as a storage flow would of stopped some time ago.
https://gasdata.nationalgrid.com/InstantaneousView
Thedlethorpe still a big fat zero
It used to inject 20 mcm/d over the summer and could withdraw 40 mcm/d.
The missed hedge this month will of been settled on the shorter term markets. With day ahead prices largely between 180 and 220p therm . While horrendous its not quiet as bad as 80k.
There are three days left of July. Production was expected forecast at the end of June.
The hedge has cost them 50k a day. With reasonable risk managment, they could of rolled the hedge, buying July back and selling the gas well over hedged amounts in a later month.
The gas will be settled on the Day ahead market, which is determined by the market each day. for most of summer DA prices have been between 160p and 180p.
The hedge volumes stated are in monthly totals, but ice contracts are for a set volume each day multiples of 5000th/d, so they probably have 35000th/d or 40,000th/d hedged. While there is no production the contract will cash out at the difference between the hedge price and the DA price. ie angs owing 40kth/d at £1.2.
When production kicks in they will get paid any production above the hedge at the DA rate. while this is 160 at the moment, in Europe its at 360p/th. a level where the winter is now trading.
I make it around 4Million revenue for the quarter. 720k for the hedged production, based on a start of the 12th as its costing 37000 th/d at 1.25th or 40k a day till production starts. If the production start then the field will 16k a day for the hedged production and the excess 30k/d a day for july 38k/d for August and 4,7k /d for September, using month ahead prices.
It will be lower because it will net out on the DA which wont be 280 in September.
Just need to see the production and no more delays please.
https://timera-energy.com/resurgence-in-uk-gas-storage-value/
missed the first six months
01/11/2012 0.093266667
01/12/2012 0.028548387
01/01/2013 0.353580645
01/02/2013 0.331
01/03/2013 0.266419355
01/04/2013 0.261066667
Those are daily average production in MCM, 1 MCM is 371970 therms
01/05/2013 0.234419355
01/06/2013 0.245833333
01/07/2013 0.030225806
01/08/2013 0
01/09/2013 0.245833333
01/10/2013 0
01/11/2013 0
01/12/2013 0
01/01/2014 0.235225806
01/02/2014 0.253428571
01/03/2014 0.246
01/04/2014 0.1987
01/05/2014 0.229451613
01/06/2014 0.213333333
01/07/2014 0.214032258
01/08/2014 0.207354839
01/09/2014 0.045866667
01/10/2014 0.200322581
01/11/2014 0.158566667
01/12/2014 0.163
01/01/2015 0.171225806
01/02/2015 0.190142857
01/03/2015 0.143
01/04/2015 0.179
01/05/2015 0.183419355
01/06/2015 0.172033333
01/07/2015 0.176387097
01/08/2015 0.173709677
01/09/2015 0.032633333
01/10/2015 0
01/11/2015 0.0713
01/12/2015 0.178225806
01/01/2016 0.106580645
01/02/2016 0.173137931
01/03/2016 0.168806452
01/04/2016 0.134666667
01/05/2016 0.166677419
01/06/2016 0.157766667
01/07/2016 0.138709677
01/08/2016 0.153903226
01/09/2016 0.083566667
01/10/2016 0.15416129
01/11/2016 0.1593
01/12/2016 0.123354839
01/01/2017 0.128709677
01/02/2017 0.143785714
01/03/2017 0.124419355
01/04/2017 0.098066667
01/05/2017 0.137580645
01/06/2017 0.0432
01/07/2017 0.084193548
01/08/2017 0.015870968
01/09/2017 0
01/10/2017 0
01/11/2017 0.033833333
01/12/2017 0.012580645
01/01/2018 0
01/02/2018 0
The field was declining rapidly in the last year it produced for 2017,
MCM Therms P/th Revenue
Jan 3.99 1484160.3 52.20 774673.7943
Feb 4.026 1497551.22 50.65 758556.117
Mar 3.857 1434688.29 45.55 653550.7302
Apr 2.942 1094335.74 39.00 426801.882
May 4.265 1586452.05 40.26 638745.2566
Jun 1.296 482073.12 36.85 177643.9447
Jul 2.61 970841.7 37.94 368376.1746
Aug 0.492 183009.24 38.60 70641.56664
Sep 0 0 45.80 0
Oct 0 0 46.95 0
Nov 1.015 377549.55 47.97 181097.6825
Dec 0.39 145068.3 57.40 83269.2042
£4,133,356.35
While it may of produced 4 million of gas in 2017 it was almost exclusively in the first six months of the year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48036845
Both sold to EPH