Member Info for benguelaboy

You do realise Qube are a multi pod hedge fund running circa 30 billion, this short position is probably a rounding error in some pods portfolio, hopefully they keep it on until post Duhbe then are forced to chase the cover when there is buyer demand

Assuming the £151 billion in AUM is a typo? - forgive me if being slow but the combined group AUM £59 billion

CCLA is the UK's largest asset manager focused on serving non-profit organisations, managing more than £151 billion in assets under management ("AUM") on behalf of charities, religious institutions and local authorities.

Local council elections results pointing towards the inevitability of a monumental shift in UK politics, specifically energy policy in 4 years time - still a long way away but will become more and more obvious as time passes - share price probably going no where fast in the shorter term without Italian developments however one to keep an eye on as we get closer to 2029.

Clearly well qualified leadership who are competent from an engineering / geological perspective - Mr.Market can be brutal and the fact we are not going to get the comms as initially anticipated on a '2 week' basis whilst we await the equipment could kill us in the short term, looks like patience will be required. good luck all.

With Wressle producing revenues of 20m over the past 3 years + US partnership with Reach ... SP speaks volumes and is no longer believing a word management say, private equity only solution here, DB please get a buyer and put us out of our misery

If anybody needed further clarity on why not to bother with this share chat for serious discussion, pboo thinks Oklahoma is in South America

Can’t share screen grabs here, but website states gross volume of crude produced for the month of June was 1,550 barrels, back of the hand calc. Dividing by 30 gives 52 bopd.

Question now becomes the rate of taxation on US assets as UJO would see a lot more of that revenue in profits compared to oil sold at wressle, going off the assumption UJO can get to net 50 bopd (taking into account respective interests from Andrew’s 1 & 2) that’s extra oil revenues of around $1.3 million per year (assuming oil @ 76) not including gas sales. Will do some work next week to figure out what that would be as a UK equivalent due to the tax differences and key for investors to realise this.

All in all a success I’d say on maiden US project, despite the well not being as prolific, shares in my opinion should now price in UJO essentially transferring to becoming a small cap US onshore E&P company given state of UK regulation and speed of works in Oklahoma allowing for many more opportunities for asset expansion.

Well done to the team, will be interesting to see how the shares react on Monday.

Information been released on Oklahoma state website this AM, 52 bopd for andrews1 it seems

Interesting performance divergence now across London listed managers coming to effect with the release of quarterly trading updates:

Liontrust: £900million outflows

Ashmore: £1.6billion outflows

Polar: £600 million net inflows

Relevent links below:

https://www.cityam.com/ashmore-billions-pulled-from-fund-manager-as-risk-appetite-remains-subdued/

https://www.trustnet.com/news/13419377/investors-pull-900m-from-liontrust-funds-in-the-latest-quarter

@karina Because atm the pessimistic projections have some factual evidence behind them, fingers crossed for RNS that it is a higher producing well than these ones

Anybody have any recommendations where we can get any insight on Andrews activity / wells in the Oklahoma area, remember seeing a regulatory filing page on twitter but cant seem to locate.

As previously highlighted, no question on the positive fundamentals of the business and management deserve a pat on the back for US developments, but with no change to dividend policy and share buybacks, the share price reaction is hardly surprising, disappointing of management to not execute on this as I am sure they are aware of the SP implications.

As for posts supporting a low dividend, this is not a high growth tech start up, it is a onshore oil producer listed on AIM, shareholders can get 4% dividend yield on Shell / BP, where is the reward for shareholders taking additional risk on a profitable AIM listed name, best of luck to all and fingers crossed for Andrews RNS

Another positive RNS with dividends being a key factor in long term returns for shareholders in UJO.

Given the growth trajectory in place should we get developments on the 2 additional wells and gas export facilities moving ASAP the timings are lining up quite nicely (I would like to think even North Lincolnshire council would have a heightened awareness of energy security right now with geopolitical tensions at multi-year highs).

An interesting observation which I'm sure shareholders would have realized in the past week or so, is the diversification benefits of UJO / energy stocks more widely to portfolios in an environment where investors concern for inflation persistence / the effects of higher rates for longer. FTSE 100 over past week down 2%, SPX500 down 2%, UJO up 6%. This is another supportive catalyst for flows from a retail investor environment in the US and UK where the current market cap of the firm / balance sheet composition make it very much a stock specific story, given the strong pipeline of growth ahead as outlined above + US developments, things are looking very interesting for the next few months IMO.

Well done to management on execution and shareholders for the patience.

Pretty exciting week in store for shareholders that deserve it for their patience, the long standers on this page will know as I have mentioned in previous notes alongside other profiles expecting a re-rate on AIM listed shares is a pipedream due to the lack of institutional flow / demand from retail participants.

My central thesis for my inital investment here was centred around the positive fundamentals for the business allowing for share buybacks and dividends to support the share price over time eventually leading to a takeover.

HOWEVER with this move to US listing alongside the positive RNS / strong oil price it seems we have a perfect storm of positive catalysts to really get us moving (as already demonstrated in the past week),

Key point to note here, the restricted float of the company creates an inelasticity meaning that any large flow demand will likely lead to relatively significant mark ups in the share price fast, eyes on US open for clues but with the positive drivers for the firm alongside the factors we already know (strong balance sheet / FCF) if dividends and buybacks are announced this could be a 5x fast.

My preferred metric for valuation would be EV/NOPAT - Enterprise Value / Net Operating Profit After Tax, we are likely to see significant increase in NOPAT forecast once clarity is given on Oklahoma / West Newton + speed of this US drill resets the expectation on other projects the company can invest in and see returns on fast, all whilst the current market cap is around £20 million, always important to be realistic and manage risk within portfolios however I have added further this AM (weighted average price paid @ 18p), good luck to all and well done on the team on the US developments.

Gets a lot of stick but prices speak for themselves at this point lol

Heid and CT to get banned off this board surely, just bonkers content at this point

@Hydras keen to hear any of your insight on falling production at Wressle, pls elaborate.

As for SP DB shouldn't be surprised given lack of dividend. lets hope the US cash flows / sustained higher brent prices can aid in the respect. adding a little more today as I continue to see a private buy out as the only feasible end game here.

@Christine, whilst I admire and share your optimism your perspective is flawed in the fact that you are referring to a dividend of 0.3p per share + 0.8 special maiden (dividend yield of 3%) which would need to be improved for shareholders to benefit. For reference the majors are doing 5% so that should be seen as a minimum given the significant investment required on their operations compared to UJO.

From there the idea of just stating 'sp should go to 30 / 50 / 70' needs to have an actual basis / trigger oppose to just stating numbers and calculating what return that would represent. Again I love the optimism but as shareholders I am more of the opinion that we need to be realistic with what is actually going to be in our best interest oppose to making each other feel better with wishful thinking.

As I have mentioned on previous posts, for the people who read this board for other peoples stock analysis / views and not for bickering and childish insults.

The buck on UJO starts and stops with the dividend. That is the ONLY way (alongside share buybacks) the SP / Investors will see returns from here, previous posts outline the math, all else on directors dealing / UK council approval are all non starters / despite the surprising airtime it gets on this board (as longer term shareholders are all too aware off), Wressle has definitely turned the companies path from a FCF perspective, it is now on the leadership to choose whether shareholders will be rewarded or not.

SP is solely a function of supply and demand, expecting any sort of premium on earnings from a smid cap oil & gas company is a pipedream, however given the levels of FCF the potential income growth could drive sustainable returns for shareholders lets say for the sake of example reaching a 8-10% dividend yield and focusing on this oppose to investing in more projects that have been years in the making (especially applicable given the likelyhood of an upcoming labour government)

All views welcome on the probability of this actually happening, have a good eve all !

@carrot13 not to talk down on another company I haven't done full research on but the comparison UKOG is hardly apples with apples, continued negative cash flow from operations, significant investment building out hydrogen projects for renewable (good luck with that), not to say everything is rosy but key to be clear when comparing scenarios