Member Info for BenAlder

You little ramper!

Agreed Chris. The investment case is very!

That could be realistic Goat, and nice you do think its possible. 3 to 5 years to increase production to target 8400T pa, with time added to pay back debt involved and introduce dividends. Could happen sooner if V price was to spike before then. However, I'm more focused on seeing a rerate of SP to reflect current production rate. Where do you see that? A bag or three, I'd say. You're itching to buy in now.

Its like a bull elephant with prostate problems. Huge resource but cant get it out fast enough!

I don't think anyone has figured out the extra cost to transition away from contractors to employee model, or they have and its baked in and this is the top, as I was expecting this to fall into the 600's.

Lol. I was taking him seriously until he listed his concerns before he'd considering buying back in. Most of them are minor to other criteria I'd be more concerned about, and totally ignores the investment case or the obvious SP disparity.

Why are you worried about SA neihbouring countries? Coal stone and Nobium are irrelavent until V price is above $80 or so. I'll be very happy if we face that problem. By the time you wait to see any of those factors resolved you'll have missed the boat, or is that the point?

Add WWIII and global financial meltdown to the list. You are still a bitter coffee, just as when you sold up. But not as bitter as your mate Cappa the goat. How'd you like him as a regular poster on the CASP board? Another of his great investment decisions I've heard.

Casino opens in the morning, place your bets!

4.97% - 2.82% = 2.15% x 537M = 11.5455M shares sold I reckon.

Might bounce now if they are finished, or are they selling it all and 15M more still to go? 3% is last notifiable event, I believe. Guess we'll see soon.

Oh you did. Thanks.

Not worth a sorry?

"The revenue streams will include electrolyte sales (beginning in H1) for BMN and revenue from rental agreements,"

Pdub - You were kinda suggesting an immediate and some could assume, a significant, income. Just balance, another opinion. Keeping it real.

I have more sympathy to Cinders view than LH's .

You have your say, don't suppress others with a differing view, we are all a reflection of the Market. Lets us speak, unless we raise something provably wrong. All opinions are welcome, as far as I'm concerned. Few of us are always right in any case.

Good day.

Commisioning has to happen first, then production and then sales/revenue. Could roll into 2024 before any recorded income.

Then. How much are they selling and at what price? What are the running costs of this new plant? Will plant be running at capacity by year end? How will profits be shared and/or repayment of the IDC work? BMN is ready but is the VRFB market?

Yes another revenue stream. Trickle or torrent?

I hope you are right Chris. I think you have to temper that with other inflationary costs to imports such as diesel and chemicals etc, but obviously wage costs and local purchases will be relatively lower. BMN has a heavy cost base which is difficult to breakdown.

I expect a min of 4000T in sales at or above that price in any case, leaving potentially another 1000T to be sold at pure profit. This is the crux for paying Orion off this year, will they do it. Sales will catch production eventually, just maybe not this year?

I think the cash costs which are dependent on production levels are a distraction from overall costs. Sprott and ARC have them at about $170M for 2023. So this year comes down to sales as much as production to solve all problems. Need to sell 4000T at $42.5 just to break even.

They did well getting this far, but some would say at what price. It is not their dedication but their ability/experience/know how I question. They seem to be very product focused, so I think they have built a very good machine, but need new financial expertise and guidance to take them from here. They have good skin in the game which is reasuring, but they can afford to be watered down more than the average PI.

As cheap as it is, my fear is holding me back. Still much more money to be raised this year. Risk of it going private cheaply because of the debt at some stage, so raising cash is vital and means dilution at this crazy valuation, although I think it may well be at a premium to the current SP.

Yep, topped up this morning. Chart says this is either going to bounce or fall a little bit more. Fundementals say hope not required, just patience.

Noticed you dropped an 'L' on your name and replaced it with a '_' Is that you passed troll basics or your grade?

Buy low sell high - Good buy to me and Goodbye to you!

Have the potential to sell 5000T this year because of the stock pile.

I reckoned all costs (except tax) come in about $150M pa. Broker's quote $35 a kg and $175M for 2023, but I dont know if they included Orion debt in that as $35 x 4350 = 152M which is same as I had.

From RNS - § Group production guidance of between 4,200 mtV and 4,500 mtV, with volumes weighted towards H2 2023.

Income 4350t at $45kgV = $195.75M less $150M costs is around $45M pretax profit for 2023 or $10 per kgV sold.

The build up of inventory is interesting. Why is it happening? Can they not sell it or is it deliberate? Building up stock for an order, a reserve for maintenance related downtime, a supply for processing into electrolyte, or a strategic move to capitalise on rising V prices? BMN is on the inside close to the market. They used a middleman to shift 75% of their stock last year, so I imagine they could shift this if they wanted to. Afterall a rising price implies a rising demand. Certainly reduces fear of being unable to meet debt obligations later this year.

Useful advice copied from another board. Seemed apt to this bb.

https://mhmembers.com/if-aim-is-a-casino-can-you-beat-the-house/