Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Well end of this week they should possibly have drilled thru r1r2 but then casing thru it.. so when exactly ? Soon we find out :-))
Yes.. new project news soon.. And info on r1r2 workovers soon.. I think these pieces are being held back and timed for very soon as a possible backup if the mengo and djeno turn out to be disasters.. Cos with 103 thatd could be 3 producing r1r2 soon.. meaning they can produce a small profit after covering admin running of the company.. Hopefully new project us something good that congo government has been sitting on.. with local 44% take youd think it might be :-)))
Not necessarily.. if em say ok to a buyout from future production revenues or to a compromise with shorecan of any sort, then its game on.. I think the disagreement is just part of normal business. That copl sp was pumped up in leadup to capital raise.. which was completely forward sold.. hence em disagreement possibly wrongly exagerated to fall in line with this.. It is possible.. Nevertheless.. once em agrees to any possible scenario, then it matters little about mother company bankruptcy etcetc... it does look like a services contract will sort out em issue.. i guess in a simplistic sense, shorecan needed to know before closing services contract, as to whether em would veto etc... who knows for sure, but things look like hottingup soon :-))
Mengo should give a market cap of minimum 35mill quid at least.. So minimum 21.5p on mengo possibly intraday spike to closer to 30p.. Djeno should burst the 50mill marketcap.. so easily way over 30p etcetc.. Only my thoughts :-))
Of course he needs to go..
The cash has been sliced in half because he was incapable of any farmout on the duster..
I cannot believe that he couldnt get a deal for a farmout % plus 33 to 50% premium on that amount at least..
Even if he ended up just farming out half the 65% stake for direct cost levels.. it would be accepted due to "risk management"...
There are even more potential deal types.. farming out with premium as stated above or for a complete freecarry which is paid back from potential future production cashflows...
The other issue is this.. if the overall markets are such that these farmout styles are no longer really possibly any more.. then the matter of salary levels for these wildcat explorers comes into play.. these guys should not be given more than 100k per yr but instead a tonne of inthemoney share options which would be valuable only on success.. the problem is.. that mr bottom and similar ceos will not tell us that the farming out deals are no longer possible as before.. because of their own personal interests..
Its a shame em didnt already go into administration.. copl and shorecan couldda offered the administrators a penny for every pound owed :-))
Either way.. if em goes down then its all for shorecan :-))
The only nuisance will be tgat of what administrative effects it leaves for opl226 etc.. me thinks that potentially nnpc and shorecan are in cahouts . simply waiting for the lame em to finally meet its maker...
Surely if em goes into administration or solvency etc, then shorecan wont have to worry about em vote gor the opl226.. they will then deal with the administrator.. who is there to mop things up.. shorecan will easily be able to cut a deal with an administrator.. my opinion anyways
Your so wellrespected docmin provides no evidence that the rights issue is oversubscribed.. none whatsoever..
There are various reasons for anyone to sell
Unfortunately your wellrespected poster who trades 88e (vs longterm holder) has not addressed what he labelled as silly..
I suggested that if a current holder who has rights via the rights issue, but is unable to take them up, simply sell on market at same or above price the same amount of shares, then pull the trigger on taking up their rights issues.. if getting the same or higher price then it works.. this way a longtermer doesnt leave his or her rights issues for a shortfall and instead pushes any chancers or sharks to buy on market..
None of what docmin has stated, actually addresses why he said my idea was silly..
For the record.. docmin had orders in for lower price than currently on 88e.. he is openly and actively trading 88e..
It is a shame that brombarb is unable to provide balanced views..
Once upon a time brombarb appeared to be solid..
Probably anything below this 3pish level.. cos cpr on morocco should be a positive.. albeit shortterm.. and real info on neighboring brazilian acreage drills going into 2019 should also provide some upward movement to sp..
He failed to give real details about neighboring drills..
Exact timing is still unkown..
Elsewhere i have read an old news article stating nov19 as time that the drills needed to be done by.. so who knows right now :-((
Char is definitely down for 2020..
Only r1r2 and mengo success needed for serious sp action.. Cos if mengo comes in.. then forget about 500bopd.. multiply it by about 8 times.. They will have debt facility in place to drill out production wells. Sefton already mentioned like up to 10wells (?)... Using say 8wells at 500bopd at 56% net is about 820,000 barrels oil net to aaog from mengo in one year.. Using the 65buck net oil.. at 1.3fx gives some 40mill gbp in clean gross profit over one yr.. Just this horizon could then produce over like 4 or 5yrs.. Apply a low 4 or 5 pe.. you get 1 quid to 1.25 quid sp.. And dividend at about 15 to 18p per share.. thats 12 to 18% etc... For 8 wells into mengo.. would probably cost like 3mill or so each.. so about 24mill usd or 18.5mill gbp in total.. if done accretively then maybe need initial 10mill quid loan finance... drill and produce from first 3wells.. then either increase loan for remainder or use positive cashflows for it etc.. In general though.. mengo on its own is good enuff for sp to get a 1quid+ valuation at some stage :-)) No doubt djeno 5kbopd success is better.. cos its out of one well.. but mengo is "appraisal".. 70% :-))))
Second well was contingent on result of first well.. and also on farmout success..
I doubt we get a 2nd well in namibia right now.. would be good.. but would need to be freecarried farmed out.. tough ask after the prospect s water :-(
If the end cost of the well comes in at over 15mill usd..
(char at 76% loses 11.5mill usd max)..
Then possibly mr bottom might survive to live another char day..
But if the costs come in at more then i do believe that the unanimous call should be asking him to move on...
Am still hopeful that char is on the hook for maximum 10mill usd, leaving bout 3.3p per share in cash at 31dec18..
Thatd only represent a 35% less drillcost..
I hope we find out soon.
I cannot see where in the timing schedule this silly ceo is going to tell us the cash position...
Few days before the duster i emailed those emails on char website asking about farmout etc.. i received no reply..
I see that the ceo phone number is on bottom of rns's.. how likely is he to get back to me if i call that number??
I expect an assistant to answer it and to effectively fob me off, or at the best to receive a garbage line like at last online presentation where we were all told about farmin still being on etc..
Surely this level of garbage given out the investors means that we should be all in unison, asking mr bottom to please resign.. asap...
Lefkosia..
The worst is how the same law and metrics are applied to the indices trading..
The other day i wanted to go short the spc before the lovely correction but saw it wasnt worth it.. for a potential 4k targetted profit the cash outlay was like 25k... buying some vix instead is dodgy in itself cos its a monthly contract and if one gets stuck beyond that few weeks period, then you lose money just on the rollover etc...
Theyve taken out the potential for retail to huff and puff and bring the house down... cos otherwise everyone would be saying.. ok.. its now the crash.. go short the spx... etcetcetc
Gripa.. into the first week of november i believe..
Thats y i say.. in the meantime we just need sefton to give us a podcast update stating no problems with drilling thru the ground before r1r2..
That in itself will be a material positive :-))