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Makes sense Mendoza,
Also signals a very important points which are very significant indeed.
That is firstly the KRG recognise a financial obligation to the IOC's. (not theft), secondly its demonstrating a willingness to repay, even though they are being financially squeezed currently.
it also helps us out by reducing ongoing costs.
Dana gas also owed 151M in back payment. Not just those producing crude oil.
The site has been attacked twice before with rockets, once causing no issue and the second time causing a small fire, however having 4 men killed this time is dreadful and does reflect increasing effectiveness of longer range Iranian terror weapons.
Without wanting too, it will probably cause increased demand for heavy oil as many in Kurdistan used to the frequent powercuts often have old diesel type generators as backup. This will keep the local teapots full for sure, churning out rough cut crude, via flash distillation.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2024/02/08/dana-gas-profit-fell-in-2023-on-lower-oil-and-gas-prices/
True bdgm,
I alluded that Iran was more likely responsible and it wants Iraq to become dependant on it and control it. That was without any definitive proof. However just now released actual filmed footage of the attack using an Iranian drone.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34708-Exclusive:-Surveillance-footage-reveals-dramatic-drone-attack-on-Khor-Mor-gas-field
No group has yet owned up to the attack on the gas field. Clearly the objective was to hit the electricity generation capabilities.
Which groups are most likely to be able to source attack drones and objective behind it.
Iraq has been importing a lot of electricity from Iran, however Uncle Sam is trying to wean them off importing electricity from Iran, especially when they have an abundance of raw gas to enable them to generate their own power.
Clearly groups operating within Iraq but supplied by Iranian drones and doing their bidding seems to be favourite, however the facts will be revealed in time. Whether this is a one off, or the start of something more significant only time will tell.
Although its not exports starting, these actual words from the report are highly encouraging for us investors. please read below.
Local sales volumes have rebounded since the beginning of 2024, with year to date gross average sales of c.33,300 bopd and March to date sales of c.43,000 bopd. We are more than covering our monthly expenditures and have significantly reduced accounts payable, with all invoices now current. Free cash flow from current robust local sales demand is being used to further improve our liquidity position. Looking ahead, we remain resilient with upside potential from the restart of exports and normalisation of payments. While there is no defined timeline, we continue to actively engage with government stakeholders to secure a solution to unlock significant value for all stakeholders.โ
21 March 2024
Its double standards that although Bagdad pays small amounts for every barrel produced they do in some locations pay more than what the IOC's are asking for.
This is clearly due to having some "special arrangements in place". The Iraqi oil ministers and politicians are getting obscene backhanders for doing nothing. So talk about an upper $6 per barrel limit is pure rubbish.
The actions of Baghdad in deliberate delay for the past year and for the foreseeable must result in international trucking operations resuming to Turkey. They give them no other choice and by withholding budget cements that resolve.
I do believe tensions in the middle east are cooling somewhat, with Iran privately pretty shocked at how easily Israel stopped a very large attack, and then followed it up with a small counter punch which Iran failed to stop. realisation dawns that they are a long way behind Israel in military capabilities so will need to improve.
Hopefully things will now settle down, although Iran will come back for sure in the future.
Last year we had firm messages that Iraq was going to tweak its laws to allow something near contractual payments to the IOC's to go ahead. That timeline moved into this year, and now nothing, just firstly trying to shift blame to the IOC's, then the KRG.
However its Baghdad thats culled the changes and we do not know why or what factions within Iraq put on pressure to Iraqi parliament do it.
Quite a strong rebuttal from the Kurdistan gov, pointing out that the rules the Iraq gov are trying to enforce have been constructed from non international recognised standards, antiquated from the Saddam regime.
This is due to the fact that Baghdad don't want to tweak their laws, and don't intend to. Every meeting over the last year has clearly been a waste of time. Seems Turkey backs Erbil in this and Iraq is desperate for Turkish water, so its why they are trying to get another export pipeline commissioned . However Turkey has serious investments in the Kurdish IOC's, so in effect gets a double bite of the cherry. It wants Kurdish crude.
Its also a neat way of delaying the whole issue, which is to stagnate the more western backed Kurdish economy. This will be fully supported by Iranian factions and militant groups within Iraq.
Glad we said it was a glimmer of hope, that was spot on.
I think its important to put a worst case timeline in it TSSZ, for investment /reward purposes. For me that timeline stands at about 16 months, when the current export pipeline to Turkey expires. Then the KRG/ TURKEY and the IOC's can make another and start exporting.
As the company has got its head above water with steady income, its pretty safe in the foreseeable, so I look upon things as a locked in 18month bond/investment with returns at that time much better than I can get elsewhere. That's without any agreement in the meantime. THE IOC's and KRG both know this and I believe its one reason why they are playing hardball.
Turkey tried the goodwill gesture last summer, by opening up the water flows so Iraq could have plenty of water, costing Turkey electricity production and expecting the return of that "goodwill", in crude oil flows.
Iraq gave them nothing, so gesture wont be repeated.
Yes the ministry of oil is saying they are ready for export.
They will most certainly allow free export, whereas the oil companies will not get paid anything at all. The IOC's took all the exploration risk with no infrastructure unlike the known easy oil in Iraq, where in many cases it was already producing and access was good. And Iraq thinks it can pay them exactly the same.???, and rip up existing solid contracts.
I also would like your house and car, but I wont give you anything for them?
This stock does surprise, so I would not do for a huge retrace.
In Europe out means out, in Iraq no agreement means no agreement yesterday.
Also the Arab culture is completely different to ours. For example we saw the same old delaying tactics used yesterday, but pointedly no agreement for more water either. They could be totally at loggerheads one day and about to have a military conflict, the next following a brief small slipping in of a "arrangement envelope", best of friends and saying he wants you to to marry his daughter.
The future for Iraq is very bleak indeed and will almost certainly become a puppet for Iran, and Iranian militant groups will continue to grow in power. Western companies will continue to pull out, leaving Russian and Chinese ones who have less morals. However they are only after money, so the mass population will continue to starve, and highly likely to become a wasteland rather than a successful metropolis it could become, but ruined by themselves.
I do believe we will carry on like this for another 15 months until the export oil pipeline ends. then its back as previous.
I find it almost unbelievable that Iraqi ministers and some Kurdish ones are actively looking for western investment by western businesses while clearly demonstrating by their own actions and bickering that they are a place you wouldn't touch with a barge pole.
Clearly only companies that will do some sort of investment participation only do so when they hope for very generous returns and not those normally seen.
This is due to corruption on an eye watering scale, and backsliding on cast iron contracts.
Iraq as reported on Bloomberg that Kurdish oil exports will take time is clear sign of continued lying.
They could have easily resolved this over a year ago but are not doing it by choice.
Now they are playing same trick by trying for yet more delays, who do they think they are fooling, they have no credibility left.
Hi Mendoza,
Quite frankly I don't believe its anything to do with the IOC contracts, that's the excuse they like to hide behind. The truth is its all about bringing Kurdistan under the heel of Iraq, and squashing all dreams of independence.
They could have easily tweaked the law to allow payments equivalent to our current contract terms. Indeed Iraq actually pays more to other oil companies so not unique.
However they do need Turkish water and Turkey wants Kurdish crude, as its also invested heavily in the Kurdish IOC's along with the Kurdish pipeline.
Clearly top of his list is Kurdistan oil exports, while water is clearly being held as a bargaining chip. Iraq has got plenty of "flunky", things for him to sign but clearly that's not why he's here.
Much more promising, light at tunnel end possibly. well worth a read.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34657-Turkish-President-to-meet-Iraqi-PM-in-Baghdad,-key-agreements-expected
Believe it is a glimmer only, like to think more, but the Iraqi oil ministers are full of double dealing, while saying one thing but doing the opposite.
However Turkey does have a lot of money tied up in Kurdish IOC's and the export pipeline.
If Iraq is trying to rush the alternative pipeline into service the only reason is to try and hammer kurdistan more. Just unfortunate that the IOC's are pawns in the middle of the struggle.
Thanks for posting Blumagnet,
Knowing that meetings are about to take place, and also knowing full well the already seen strategy of Iraqi officials of blaming everyone bar themselves for deliberate cause of delay, they are clearing going on the record as saying they are fully willing to produce crude oil for export. Asking for their share of payment for crude that has already been sold for doing all the work, is clearly fair in anyone's eyes bar an embezzler.
Just stopping them from trying to blame the IOC's for the delay which they have already attempted to do in the press.
Time for them to come clean which most don't believe they will, while still trying to extort USA dollars for aid, while being the primary cause of hardship.