The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I strongly suspect that this is just another false dawn, with Barzani saying "initial agreement made on the oil issue", which in effect says nothing concrete and no different from words spoken a year ago. These fine words probably did originate from Baghdad ministers as they do find themselves in a tighter spot with Uncle Sam and Turkey, and attempts to blame the IOC's are just lies. It just gets them off their backs, when they have in effect done nothing concrete to actually resolve the issue like tweaking the oil and gas law to allow higher crude payments than currently exist.
I expect the IOC's or their reps haven't even been approached.
Love it to have truth behind it, but see too many false dawns like this so lets treat with a huge pinch of salt until we see actual achieved facts and results. 95% chance here that its just BS.
Still nothing achieved despite some willing from some parties for a resolution still has to be ratified by Iranian sympathisers in Baghdad who will do Iran's wishes.
"In principle there is agreement through which we hope to solve this problem".
Well those key words were echoed over a year ago as well as yesterday. Iraq knows its got to tweak its rules to enable higher payments to the IOC's, instead of blaming them for the delays because they refuse to work in effect at a financial loss.
So regardless, of outcome, have the rules been even tweaked to allow flexibility on payments...nope not a jot, its no accident, just play lip service and do nothing.
Its clear deliberate disguised policy which they cannot publicly admit to having, as its clear persecution of a minority population on grounds of belief and race. Once you see that everything is crystal.
Waste of time even meeting with them.
Or in the least offer a public retraction of what you have written. I actually think TW often calls it right and does this for a living and has a lot of respect from his subscribers and from myself. Please prove what you have stated or oppologise with the defaming post on TW.
Just because we don't like what someone writes, its wrong to personally attack them on a public forum.
Believe you have overstepped the line this time.
The 7.5M shares purchased at 6.59p, come into play on the 8th April, not today. However looks like they have no safety net or lock in period.
As the current share price right now is over 30% higher, does anyone care to speculate whats about to happen on Monday.
Real solid risk of a full 30% drop coming up. I posted about a week or so ago, suggesting taking something off the table, even if just a little bit. Well worth taking a hard look at this stock right now, and judge the likeliness of a rise from here verses a fall.
Also another question which is currently unanswered but I believe we do have the answer here is "why is there a regional shortage when companies like GKP are producing so much heavy crude". We know they are producing to local markets????
See extract below from just a few days ago.
Last year’s massive budget passed in part because of a prior deal between Baghdad and Kurdish capital Erbil that gave Iraq’s federal government the power to monitor and audit the KRG’s oil and gas income.
However, even since the deal was agreed, the KRG has often circumvented the federal government and sold natural resources directly to foreign partners, leading to tension between it and Baghdad.
and the link below to give full context and flavour, as it appears things are most certainly happening right now.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/28/iraqs-overreliance-on-oil-threatens-economic-political-strife
In addition to increased pricing for heavier local crudes, the first sentence is also encouraging "Given the shortages of heavier crudes in regional markets", which clearly states demand is higher than can be sourced. Also means there is clear opportunity to produce higher rates if able.
Hi Pompey,
I am still looking for concrete evidence from the company. I love the products, but so far sales to 500 or so retendered customers , 100 plus of which stayed from the "trial" is terrible. Perhaps we should start a new 20,000 customer trial as well, to really get sales moving.
forget how tasty the "jam", is, just see the hard numbers and couple it with the amount of times we have seen prices shoot up then retreat stunningly. Why I believe taking some profit on any gains a shrewd move. it then gives you options later on.
Really glad to see some investors up, but its only a very small percentage.
Word that got blocked was to do with race, not that long ago they were using chemical weapons, seems the hate is still there in some quarters, now they try to starve them out by withholding wages and services. Believe such actions are still indictable by international court.
for myself, hearing such lies from iraqi oil ministers finally draws a line under exporting with somo in control until the current oil pipeline contract expires in 17 months or so.
however know new export agreements and suchlike do take a little time to sort out, i am most certainly in favour of the following.
1. sort out the post contract end agreement this summer and publish it.
2. anticipate well in advance the exact dates exports can start again, and complete all work req in advance to hit the road running.
3. and not just running , but at full tilt, release funds in advance to start our expansion projects, also with increased tankage.
4. inform all shareholders of new timeline and schedule.
5. just give up with the baghdad liars, keep our contracts and play hardball.
6. ioc's to start collective arbitration against baghdad, a they are blocking exports on ****** idealisms against the kurdish people, with iranian backing. claim lost production to all the ioc's and share costs.
Included link.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iraq-blames-foreign-firms-delay-crude-export-restart-iraqi-kurdistan-region-2024-03-25/#:~:text=CAIRO%2C%20March%2025%20(Reuters),crude%20exports%20from%20the%20region.
Couldn't make this rubbish up, surprised they even printed it. So the twit in charge in Iraq says in effect that the IOC's are to blame because they did not rush them their contracts which pay 30p per barrel asking for new ones that pay 6p. Even though its been accepted by Baghdad, that the IOC's had in effect no infrastructure, full exploration risk, etc and their costs and risks were much higher, and that current contracts are indeed fair.
While they have deliberately sat on their hands for years, and done nothing while trying to blame anyone bar themselves.
There are no excuses that Iraq can make that actually carry any resemblance of truth. Such as the one posted in Bloomberg yesterday that Iraq has yet to amend laws to allow payments. Its clear lies.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/iraq-is-yet-to-amend-budget-to-get-kurdish-oil-flowing-again?embedded-checkout=true
Had much more than ample time to do it, years in fact but choose not to due to deliberately trying to force hardship on Kurdistan due to cultural differences.
No one believes what they say, because they talk plenty and then do the opposite, as the many embezzlers in charge have allegiances to Iran, not the people of Iraq. Most know hardly anything about the oil business, having been given positions and over rewarded salaries via family connections and not hard graft. That became crystal recently when it was revealed that they didn't even know much about our own contracts despite shouting that they were illegal for years.
Sensible post Cliostock, thankyou for your contribution.
Yes SA and the board could seriously decrease their salaries which would give this company a lot more runway.. Its by far the largest cost, and there are plenty of industry comparisons where the CEO and board have just done it automatically without shareholder prompting as they do see success down the road and want to ensure the company gets there. This generates increased investor confidence in the board, and helps keep the share price buoyant.
Jury is out whether SA will actually do this, as far they have only increased remuneration while failing to deliver on sales, despite having really great products.
Completely agree with you Thomas and bear, the excessive remuneration is a huge red flag, and does smack of the death spiral that our CEO is aware of so wants to get max out of the company while he can.
I believe its almost uninvest able currently and expect TW will be out soo if not already.