Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Lets just take a small step back here and see whats been achieved and how far we have come as a company.
Still continuing to supply local market and able to keep head above water.
Pipeline -Turkey has confirmed its ready for use, has agreed transport tarriff and ready to receive and export crude. In addition its putting on pressure on Iraq, for non use of the pipeline, as it has many companies tied up in the crude export business from kurdistan.
Iraq also needs Turkish water so must agree to export.
Rebels causing shipping delays so Iraq also needs to export Kurdish crude via Turkey.
Iraq now understands why the IOC's have premium contracts as apposed to normal Iraqi ones from established oil fields.
Iraq now has transparency on the IOC contracts which it clearly did not have before, and is now making increased financial offers to the IOC's...clearly room to negotiate.
Comments like "exports are illegal have stopped.
Iranian strikes inside Iraq, has caused even those with Iranian sympathies to distance themselves from Iran.
Iraq needs the income, and agreements state that Kurdistan must export 400K bopd to obtain its budget share. Actually believe this is due to those in Badhdad, not wanting to export all the crude from the south and leave Kurdish oilfields full, or only partly tapped.
OIC's sticking together and already stating that they feel confident exports will start before long.
Meeting date already set for this week with a view to reacting export agreements.
At last the IOC's have actually been invited to participate in the initial negotiations in getting the Kurdistan crude flowing again to Turkey which Iraq now finds its self desperate to achieve. Already some initial compensation figures are being touted which if an opening gambit from the Iraqi team of $20 representing a offer to increase payments of 320% of whats currently being paid to current contracts in established oilfields and is a dreadful show of solidarity to offer so much before talks have even started. I'd love to be participating on the side of the IOC's right now, as they know their contracts are watertight and Turkey is putting enormous pressure on Iraq thats its desperate for water. Turkish companies wont be happy with a poor deal after being deliberately put out of pocket since spring of last year so unlikely to accept anything bar contractual terms.
Guys don't sell on any spikes tomorrow and leave yourselves short, serious shorter blood in the water now and expect frantic trading. A great day awaits for the long term investors here.
Iraq has actually well underperformed on its OPEC crude oil quota for many years. Its only recently that they are able to achieve it. None of the OPEC countries will really care if Iraq exceeds it for a good while as they are only making up on years of shortfall while the big players like Saudi used the income to prosper and build serious wealth management Iraq is viewed as needing some serious catching up to do. Don't anyone get hung up on Iraq's quota at all.
Errrr what planet are you on Itsaponzi, no nation can afford to waste 1B $ a month just to try and stagnate one side of its country while at the same time bailing them out with billion dollar handouts. Happy to hear negative viewpoints if backed with solid reason, but trying to spook investors just because you are trying to get the share price lower to buy back points at another type of investor entirely.
Baghdad, now knows what it has to do to tweak its laws to enable the IOC's to be paid under contractual terms.
The IOC's clearly hold the whip hand, they are ticking over nicely while Iraq is loosing a billion a month plus pipeline penalty payments and is under pressure from Turkey which also has many intrests in getting the crude flowing.
In addition the IOC's are owed many millions fro the crude they have already produced and has been sold.. This is not in dispute. However neither Kurdistan or Iraq can really afford to pay them back, so will have to suitably compensate the IOC's in order to get the crude flowing again.
One solution is fully recognised contracts coupled with agreed regular payment mechanism from Iraq, all signed sealed and water tight.
The "cost of this buckshee, where backhanders are rife", might be forfeiture of a good part of the owed income.
In my book as long as new payments given promptly going forward with recognised contracts might be a cost or loss worth absorbing...what we never got we do not miss...and if it gets the crude flowing GKP would then propel itself into one of the most sought after companies around.
Fully agree swell, too many times we have seen blaggard Iraqi bureaucrats claiming agreement amongst themselves to solve the oil export situation but offering those that are doing all the work nothing or something they know full well is way short of anything agreeable to the IOC's.
Require transparent concrete statements backed with full agreements rather than hot air politicians playing for the newsreels.
We live in hope but biased with reality.
Iran firing missiles into Iraq without provocation has caused Baghdad Elite with certain sympathies to Iran to choose sides. No longer can they just delay or push pencils of inaction, clearly when push comes to shove they are Iraqis.
This will speed up kurdish exports to Turkey much faster than any biscuit munching session.
Not a time to sell guys...I'm going to buy more now.
Yep while continuing to mount losses of $1B a month plus penalties for unused pipeline of another $1M a day. Well it seems the bribery payments (ahhh sry completion or stage bonuses), have been arranged. Now they know which way they are slowly heading. Little wonder how Iraq is so poor when you have so many fraudsters dealing with blatant corruption in charge. Everyone sits on their hands, while the legal tweaks could have been achieved last year, I doubt they've even put together the timeframe with the draft changes required into firm action.
Not only do they deserve to have their salaries withheld, but put into prison for corruption and acting in the interests of a foreign state.
Ahhh more light into making transparency, so IOC's get $21 , but now we hear $ 32 is now the accepted amount on which SOMO is going to sign off on.
If you have been following previous posts its clear Chinese companies are happy to pay whatever bribes are required by SOMO officials in order to secure huge oilfield contracts.
Seems to me another sweetheart deal is done where SOMO is going to take 11% extra cut in bribes to sign off Kurdistan oil contracts as fully legal and then let the crude exports flow.
Not going to give an opinion here...just facts as I see it.
Latest crude markets are becoming spooked with Brent now north of $80 with nearly a 4% jump and rising.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude
Don't believe its the current action, but what Mr. Market thinks might happen next , with shipping being disrupted. I actually believe bigger powers are at play here, certainly Yeman did not build those missiles, with the finger strongly pointing at Iran which is the regional power and in bed with Russia. I believe they are actually responsible for not getting our crude flowing as its politicians with strong Iranian backing in power in Iraq which is one of our main hurdles.
Along with crude disruption also disrupted is the flow of of LPG , at a time when Europe is about to face its coldest period with some grim forecasts looming. These facts have not been overlooked and I suspect a major factor in the starting of disruption to shipping, which many fear will soon escalate to more direct Iranian action in the straight and the horn.
World timing for these actions is ideal for the puppet masters supplying rebels and any group with a cause with relatively easy to operate fire and forget weapons. Also as major crude producers they have the most to gain.
Despite being well paid SOMO officials are corrupt, and deliberate inactivity takes place until these "reward payments" are made. We are certainly not talking about a small brown envelope here, but excessive bribes. ..Now XOM has exited from Iraq, we see more revelations appearing on what happens ..little wonder the Chinese are just walking into a well planned and part developed operation already producing 500K BOPD...Even $8 for BOPD to my mind seems to high.
Just read this extract below, or better still the whole article.
there were three key elements to the risk/reward matrix that formed the basis of those negotiations between ExxonMobil and the Oil Ministry. These were cohesion, security, and streamlining, a senior source who works closely with the Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com at the time. "Cohesion related to ensuring the facilities that are connected to the CSSP are completed in order and in full, security related to the on-the-ground security of personnel and to the basic soundness of the business and legal practices involved in the agreement, and streamlining meant that any deal should continue as agreed, regardless of any change in government in Iraq," he said. "The basic problem was that the [Oil] Ministry and other officials connected with the CSSP expected to receive commissions for anything they did, which might look a lot like bribery if they ever came to light, but if the payments weren't made then the project simply would not have progressed," he added. "The standard commission here is 15 percent, but it can rise to 30 percent or more, so with the development cost having risen to US$53 billion, Exxon[Mobil] was looking at under-the-counter payments of nearly US$8 billion, and that's difficult to hide in any accounts, even if it wanted to do so," he told OilPrice.com.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Replaces-Western-Energy-Firms-in-Iraqs-Supergiant-Oil-Field.amp.html
With shipping being attacked in the gulf and the resulting jump in crude oil price, a lot of shipping is now being diverted around Africa to avoid the conflict area. This will cause crude loading delays as shipping times will now take longer or not at all. It is now becoming an international issue. This will probably effect Iraq's ability to export from the gulf.
Even more pressing need for SOMO to commission the over land export route to Turkey and bypass the gulf route.
This will further increase pressure to get the crude flowing again, and the costs for not doing so.
Iraq knows full well it cannot force the IOC's to change contracts. It also knows and accepts the now transparent price rewards (with completely different risk factors) from its own contracts on established oilfields. That is $8 compared to $21 for kurdish IOC's.
It has not stated it is unfair, but also understands that Turkish companies are large beneficiaries. This is why Turkey is putting so much pressure on Iraq right now along with huge financial losses and unfilled pipeline penalties exceeding 1M per day and approaching 10 B $ for lost production to the pipeline.
It is exploring how it can tweak its legal payment system to allow payment at contractual rates and will then give the arears payments due. They know they cannot win now Turkey is holding out on critical water flows, just sorting out the legal payment mechanism.
How unlike you Madaboutmedtech to again abuse the poster Odysseseus when he puts a very true personal viewpoint. Points a negative opinion about your character that is best binned sir.
Please lets keep discussion company based.
Nice find space tomato,
Iraq seeks a fair and equitable source of water , the same that Turkey seeks in crude oil. Article also links the two issues as well pointing out that we have been correct in our assumptions and can clearly see the solution to the export issue.
I really believe that if it was just the Kurdish IOC's and Iraq, they might have withstood the crippling financial losses in order to put down the Kurdistan people.
However having Turkey so financially inter twined in Kurdistan puts a whole new perspective on the issue. One that Iraq cannot easily bypass, ignore or basically try to hide behind legality issues to resolve.
They will give in for sure now its effectively 2 against 1, but will outwardly give a "all brothers working together" approach and try for any last minute gains or concessions from the other two parties.
We are going to see the crude flowing and contracts ratified fairly soon.
The shareholders here deserve the large gains that will then arise it for their perseverance and foresight. Actually a good time to buy.
This is actually good news for all parties concerned and well worth another read. Pretty well factually correct.
Some points I take from it.
Iraq now knows what it needs to do to resolve issue, tweak some articles in its own law.
It also now knows how much the Kurdistan gov gets from the IOC contracts, would be an advantage for Iraq to get the Kurdish oil exports up to max, then deduct that income from the amount it sends Kurdistan. They will like that.
It says the amount the IOCs get is higher than Iraq but fail to mention the additional risk, higher difficulty of extraction, and lack of infrastructure when projects started. So although it says payments are high they are not unfair.
Also the biggest advantage for the IOC's, comments that Turkey stands to gain a lot due to its investment in the region in companies , pipelines etc. Again this is probably correct, but is again not unfair.
Turkey also knows this, and if Iraq wants a regular water supply in the future it better fast track those legislation tweaks because if they don't its going to be a dry summer indeed in Baghdad. Turkey wont aid them water wise which is a cost to Turkey in loss of hydro power unless they expedite exports PDQ.
At last we have full transparency and a route to export market. Don't know if they can "guarantee payments under contractual terms as a sign of good faith", so crude exports can start much sooner , then make the required legislative rule tweaks in order to rubber stamp those payments to the IOCs.
yes my only concern is the iranian influence on the baghdad ministers and those in power. are they looking after the interests of the peoples of iraq as a who or the interests of iran.
their actions point at the latter to date, however they were elected, but it seems the old sunni / ****e hostilities still prevail while trying to keep the public pretence of working together and representing all iraqis.
Hello Toyin,
Yep have a merry Christmas yourself. I believe in when you invest thousands of pounds its very important to have clear transparency of the now primary income stream. Anyone not completing this due diligence has only themselves to blame if they did not push harder to uncover the facts and not allowing themselves to be side tracked by over glossing of the facts or be silenced by other investors not wanting you to probe too deeply.
I've fallen for the same thing myself once believing that axis pre-subscription interest numbers were going through the roof when told by our CEO that they "were going up at an alarming rate". Later to be told in more private correspondents that numbers had already surpassed 50K. History proved that these were false claims. However must not dwell on the past but look forward to the future, but I am totally right to ask hard uncomfortable questions like exactly how much is our royalty per sale, and how many product lines does Croda envisage putting our product into.
Also the beauty parade, what was Sedermas customers responses, and how many have expressed very serious interest.
Our product is well copyright protected so why any secrecy.. Also have good factual answers to these questions will enable investors to draw more exact timelines on income stream, because the huge issue with axis was the terrible sales numbers..at least with Croda we know current turnover as it already commands a huge market share.
Its not negative to discuss these things, indeed given accurate transparency for everyone and for free I believe will really increase interest and share price. These details will promote SBTX
When I look back over many years of investing its stocks where I failed to fully probe all angles that let me down, and ones that passed the bar with due diligence that performed best.
When knowledgably the most informed investors seem to dislike probing questions it can raise red flags into hidden skeletons. However understand that investors don't like regurgitated points if they repeat themselves but a company stands on its performance and timeline to market and profitability. Top marks for Stuart for performance in getting Axis to launch and market, is a clear positive example.
So if anyone actually knows how much per sale we will be getting and how many lines our product is likely to be included in I'll be very interested indeed. Understand things are taking much longer than initially envisaged, as I know with big companies just how long it takes to schedule in an extra reactor test run, having actually run them myself.
Hi AquaeS and Cliostock,
Thanks for your honest replies, I find when fellow investors try to play the player and not the ball they have lost the discussion. I most certainly am keeping close tabs on what's happening with this stock, although I don't see what's behind a paywall any more.
One thing that surprised me is that Croda has not made a move for the overall company knowing and having checked out their previous acquisition history and size of their war chest.
when I ponder that while asking myself the question why not if what we are hearing in bits and bobs is correct the formulation does have unique qualities in skin rejuvenation and suppleness, compared to other additives like matrixyl.
while not querying these facts because we have seen the data, I come to the view that it might be pricepoint, and what Croda is due to pay us for the royalties. This is when these terms were agreed our company was really pushing the main launch of our primary product and Croda was said to be a "free carry".
I've yet to see what our returns per sale will be with Croda, yep I know their quantities are huge and products expensive but if we are not getting much per kilo of raw product a sprinkle might be worth fractions of a penny, rendering us as a company not worth taking over. This revenue stream has yet to start, and I have concerns that even when it does we might be far from happy due to the above facts. Certainly hope these fears are unfounded.