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The pipeline of work is only starting to bear fruit. And the numbers are frightening.

The LFT alone could conservatively value Avacta at over £3bn. A realistic takeover position could be at £20bn, once precision is proven and affimer licensing deals are struck. Monetising affimers is limitless in an astronomical market. Hence the focus on licensing in this Thursdays presentation. I’m convinced this will be the sell.

I thought today that their could be a surprise RNS tomorrow...

PL/JRDC - agree on both accounts.

The test has the required use case and blows the market to bits. There’s an education to be done at a PR level, and even amongst the investor community, to clarify just how good the test is.

I would be pretty confident, based on studies and anecdotal evidence, that the other leading tests used in our setting, wouldn’t get close to 50% sens. That’s how good our numbers are. Tremendous.

It’s unfortunate today with how things finished, but the reality is:

No new information. Confirmation and competition realisation is good.

No manufacturing confirmation (at scale anyway)

No orders

Delayed commercialisation from March to May. And this is the biggie. The market will no doubt assume June May even be reached. It’s that sketchy.

But investors should rejoice today as the best test in town is now officially real. Even better for me, time will not allow a competitor to emerge as they don’t have affimers. Mabs and Aptamers have failed to get anywhere close.

Time brings frustration - today was the time for me to switch off and look forward until June when we could could be staring at the projected annual revenues of £1bn+ On LFT alone. Then AVA starts...

Summarised well.

But PL, you can’t compare them due to the sample methodology. Real world data would suggest that, in AN sampling, they are terrible, I.e 40%.

This fact makes our performance incomparable and so much better than most believe.

That’s the thing Jimmy. I think he was just showing off using Ct 31 :). Very much a PR excessive I think, just to prove how special the performance is.

I don’t think we’ll realise just how special until AS dissects the data on Thursday.

This manufacturing route is to gain CE quicker than using their own.

He has a choice what figure to declare on the performance data, I’d say.

100% up to 27?? Nice option to have :)

Just wow.

AS highlighted the lack of competition. These results, with the AN sample are phenomenal.

"As part of the study the same clinical samples were tested with two leading, commercially available lateral flow antigen tests, and the data show that the AffiDx® test had better clinical sensitivity across the range of Ct value and in particular at lower viral loads.

Declaring there is no conception in an RNS is bold. And he’s smashed it.

I still can’t find any competition.

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf

The sample method phrasing is misleading, especially ‘nasal swab’. This is actually a swab inserted into the nasal canal until resistance is felt. Therefore, not AN.

At first glance, some might see the Sofia (quidel) test of similar performance to ours at 96.7/100 @ cT 20-30. However, it requires the above sample method to achieve this.

https://www.quidel.com/sites/default/files/product/documents/HT1018300EN00.pdf

https://www.quidel.com/immunoassays/rapid-sars-tests/sofia-sars-antigen-fia

If Avacta can deliver an AN test in that performance ball park, it’ll be on its own. And as coined before; a Unicorn.

More investable based on that link? Joking, surely?

Thanks Mart.

Indeed.

I’m less impressed and haven’t read too much into those tenders. I see them as placeholders only - bit of a market research piece.

They lose their credibility with some of the outfits included. Excalibur specifically.

Just thinking the same thing. The only ‘new test’ type I can think of. Especially with the emphasis on forgoing the throughout part.

Joker in the pack?

Yes, of course. But the market prices in the future prospects, driven by sentiment and balance. You know that. I’m highlighting the constant head-banging discussions.

With respect, I’m not interested in discussing anything outside of research. No offence by the way.

But this is the market. And the SP is not £1.

For obvious reasons. Unless the LFT fails catastrophically, and they achieve zero revenue, the SP will fall. Their backstop is prospective success of AVA, which will be spun and hyped until that happens. Or not.

Why do people torment themselves. It’s not just discussion and a ‘realist’ side either. It’s torment. And investors have heard it all, to death.

We should believe what’s in the RNS’s. Anything else is conjecture and rumour. All of which informs your investment case and risk perception.

Because anything less than that, once complete would be negative.

Plus he’s given us the early heads up with 56 samples.

Good point. And I assume the validation aligns with the requirements of all potential customers. I.e. scale and testing strategy.

I keep coming back to the 22nd Feb RNS.

“ We believe an accurate, rapid antigen test, that has been appropriately validated, will help to limit the spread of the coronavirus and support the safe return to work and play. In the UK, the DHSC is a potential CUSTOMER and PARTNER in the roll out of such a validated test. While Avacta continues to be in dialogue with the DHSC, and with other organisations in the UK and abroad, with a view to future supply of its rapid antigen test, it is prioritising the full clinical validation of its nasal swab-based SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen test as a pre-requisite for CE marking and broad commercialisation.”

Choosing customer and partner is deliberate. They plan on selling to, and being part of a supply chain with HMG.

Yes, it’s not all about HMG. But this is what I return to when joining the dots.

The point is, people don’t need to be fed fraudulent doubts. Look back, this is what happens to you remember.

Stockholm syndrome?