Of Interest12 Jan 2021 21:55
CAMMESA Payables to Stress Argentine GenCo Cash Flow, Liquidity
Fri 31 Jan, 2020 - 13:25 ET
Fitch Ratings-Chicago-31 January 2020: Compania Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Electrico's (CAMMESA) rising payment delinquencies will begin to stress Argentine generation companies' (GenCos) cash flow and liquidity, according to Fitch Ratings. AES Argentina, Capex and Pampa Energia are better positioned to accommodate the slower payment frequency than Albanesi and MSU Energy, due to strong liquidity and manageable debt maturities. Albanesi and MSU Energy could seek bank financing if payment delays continue in order to support working capital.
CAMMESA, Argentina's off-taker and electricity market coordinator, is highly reliant on support from the federal government to make timely payments to GenCos. Fitch has taken numerous rating actions on Argentina since August 2019, downgrading Argentina's Local-Currency IDR to 'RD' last week. We estimate the government transferred roughly USD2.1 billion to CAMMESA through YTD October 2019 and note USD334 million as budgeted for November, collectively representing nearly 31% of the system's total cost. The cost of the system is roughly USD8.0 billion, as of November 2019, when assuming the average monomic prices for 2019 of USD67.07/MWh to the total net power generated of 119,716GWh.
Argentine GenCos in the last few years received payments from CAMMESA within 45 days after the close of the period but payments have been delayed to an average of 52 days in recent months and reached 65 days in October 2019, with payments being distributed in increments. In October, CAMMESA disbursed 30% in December, 45% in early January and the remaining in mid-January. At this point, CAMMESA paid only 15% of its November payments without any guidance of when the remaining payments will be disbursed.
Tighter liquidity will make Albanesi even more vulnerable to refinancing risk due to 2020 and 2021 maturities. Improved capital market conditions in Argentina would be required by 2021 in order for Albanesi to continue to meet its commercial and financial obligations. MSU Energy is in the final stages of completing its combined-cycle expansion project, which is expected to nearly double EBITDA on a pro forma basis from the current level of approximately USD100 million. The conversions will add 300MW of capacity at a total after-tax cost of USD490 million. We expect combined-cycle conversions to be completed in mid-2020 but have incorporated a two-month delay into our base case, due in part to tighter liquidity.
Unlike Albanesi and MSU, Genneia's EBITDA is relatively split between conventional purchase power agreements (PPAs) and RenovAR PPAs, which have a support mechanism to assure payment within 45 days. It is our understanding that RenovAR PPAs have been paid on time.
Argentina's electric system is highly vulnerable to currency risk as CAMMESA pays GenCos in US dollars and end-users pay distribution companies in Ar