Courtesy Tex21 Feb 2013 10:23
My take on this is that if they wanted to seize the properties and have a fire sale, the covenant breaches would have allowed the banks to do this a few years ago. Hence there is no reason why this should suddenly happen in July 2011 when debt is due to mature ? If you were the bank, your loan is performing, and your interest rate is probably higher than you could re-lend it to someone else in the current environment, the value of your security is rising ( as evidenced by recent sales) wouldn't you roll over the debt into a new longer term facility ? I would expect that Treveria will have to sell a few more properties in order to bring LTV down to 75% but that should be about it.
The equity in these properties is worth an extra €0.35 per share i.e. >250% upside to the current price.
I agree that there is still risk but the current price is backed by assets and I think the upside is well worth it.
I would expect any kind of good news about new bank facilities in the next few months to project this share upwards pretty swiftly.