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The RNS from Providence on Thursday was in large part an effort to address the environmental issues around Barryroe in the era of Climate Change. Focusing on a carbon neutral gas development as an option for the Barryroe field is a good idea politically and may help with reassuring any new investors that it is a project that will be given the green light by government. The focus on preventing the LNG terminal at Shannon, if successful, would require that supply of LNG to be replaced by another source; hopefully the "renewable" natural gas from Barryroe. Of course if Barryroe does go ahead, and a large oil find is discovered, it would be something that would capture the public's imagination, and hopefully change the discussion around bringing ashore our own oil, which would provide revenue for the government. Two and half billion euros according to Davy stockbrokers.
https://www.thejournal.ie/shannon-lng-ep-5004429-Feb2020/
Perhaps some good news on the political front, in that Fianna Fail have said that they are not going into coalition with Sein Fein, which means a Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and smaller party government. The RNS today addresses the main issue with Barryroe, which is the climate change environment that exists today. The problem is not that there isn't oil in Barryroe. The problem is to be able to get government approval to drill for it in the first place.
Since the last government have given the green light for gas exploration, it is a wise move to embrace it and talk about a oil field with a gas cap or a large gas field surrounded by a oil rim, to say nothing of the fact of a carbon neutral gas development, with the potential of sequestration of carbon by using nearby depleted gas fields.
Hopefully Sein Fein will want to use Ireland's own natural resources instead of buying North Sea oil from the British. ( No offence to our English friends)
I agree ps300306. It looks like another election will happen. Sein Fein and Fianna Fail are the most likely possibility to form a government after every other party has tried to come up with a alternative. Hard to see a Sein Fein and Fianna staying together, so it would led you to think that every party will use the talks on the formation of government to position themselves for another election campaign. So it might be a couple of months before there is any new government in Ireland. Hopefully all this will work out in Providences favour, and they can quietly get on about their business. It is wishful thinking I know, but by the time the government is formed hopefully things will be working out for Barryroe and the narrative going into any election will be that Barryroe will provide two and a half billion euros in revenue to any new government.
It might take a couple of weeks or more to form a government. Hopefully Providence can get on with its business in the meanwhile
Brid Smith had being in 7th position with four seats available. She had 3553 votes. She received 4994 votes from Sein Fein
Brid Smith just got re-elected. Sein Fein transfers of over four thousand votes when to Smith
You are right about Brid Smith being elected. The Sein Fein candidate will have a big surplus which will bring in both Brid Smith and Joan Collins of People before profit. Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have said they will not go into government with Sein Fein. Leo Varadkar has said that if it comes down to it; in the national interest, they would support Fianna Fail in government. Sein Fein have a large percentage vote, but only ran 42 candidates.
It would look like that Sein Fein's surplus votes will save Brid Smith and People before Profit, and help them get reelected.
40% of all power will still have to come from either fossil fuels or nuclear due to the intermittent nature of weather related energy production. John Defereus of CNN
You are right Manyana. The plan in Ireland is to have one million electric cars by 2030. The car dealers of Ireland have said this is impossible The government is offering a grant of two thousand euros to help buy a electric car and if we have a million electric cars by 2030 that is two billion euros in tax payers money handed to the car companies, to say nothing of the cost of installing charging points, the increase in electricity generation and the lose of revenue from petrol and diesel
Just looking at Prime Time on Irish TV. Both the Fianna Fail and the Fine Gael spokespersons did not rule exploration of fossil fuels offshore Ireland. They also did not rule out importing fracked gas from American. The Fine Gael spokesperson was Richard Bruton the minister for the environment and climate change
You are right Manyana, a vote on a united Ireland is a red line issue for Sein Fein. Interesting to see Sein Fein are only running forty candidates, compared to Fianna Fail would are running over eighty. Both parties are now leading in the polls, with 24% of the vote each. Eighty seats are needed to form a majority. All parties are promising a lot, as would be expected. For example, Sein Fein are promising an extra four billion euros in spending. Barryroe, occurring to Davy Stockbrokers, will provide two point five billion euros to the exchequer. Hopefully the next government will make the exploration of Barryroe a red line issue.
looks like it will be a hung parliament in Ireland after the election. Last time it took three months to form a government. Hopefully the political impasse will allow Providence to go about their business
I would agree that the election will turn out that way, but I think Fainna Fail are very pragmatic and will realize that the tax take from barryroe is something that no government would pass up. The following is from the Irish Times:
The Sunday Times reports that stockbroker Davy, the house broker for Providence Resources, has calculated that the Barryroe oilfield off the southern coast that the exploration company is developing with Chinese investment could yield €2.5 billion in taxes for the State. Davy says the field could produce 100,000 barrels of oil a day at the peak of its 16-year production cycle.
The arguments that Ireland should use its own reserves instead of importing them from other countries, thus avoiding increasing the carbon footprint is a good one. Also they can make the point that the oil can be brought ashore to the oil refinery in Cork, creating jobs, and that the Kinsale Gas field can be replenished by gas from Barryroe.
These are some of the political arguments to be made in favour of going ahead with Barryroe, and being political, they do not even have to be completely true.
The Greens are expected to get eight seats, but Fianna Fail or Fine Gael will be able able to form a coalition government with the Labour party and independents instead.
There will be some change in the makeup of the Dail, but the economy is good, therefore I expect some change but nothing too big. The Green Party have two seats at the moment and are projected to increase to eight after the election. They will gain these seats in Dublin. The rest of Ireland will not vote for them.
PROVIDENCE'S NEW CEO MUST STRIKE OIL AT BARRYROE
Troubled Irish oil and gas exploration group Providence Resources has awarded its new chief executive, oil industry journeyman Alan Linn, 15 million new shares under an incentive scheme.
The fact the award price is 4 pence sterling per share is, in itself, an indication of the scale of the problematic situation into which he is walking.
Often, when a chief executive joins a company following a troubled period, that person will spend time trying to assess potential, formulate goals and come up with a vision for the business. Linn goal’s at Providence is clear -– get the Barryroe oil prospect off the coast of Cork over the line. Nothing else matters.
ONE BILLION BARRELS:
Linn must succeed where his predecessor, Tony O’Reilly jnr, failed. He must find a partner to fund the development of the oilfield, which lies in shallow waters off the southern coast of Ireland with potentially up to one billion barrels of oil.
O’Reilly’s failure to do this was the reason behind his departure in December. The company is at a low ebb and, as investors turn to Linn, he essentially has a free hit. If he succeeds, he will be a hero. The problem is that his predecessor thought he had succeeded twice before at the same task.
DRILLING PLAN:
In 2015, O’Reilly thought he had sealed a Barryroe farm-out deal with Sequa Petroleum, but that collapsed when the backing didn’t materialise. In 2018, he thought he had found a worthy replacement when Chinese group Apec agreed to fund a $200 million drilling plan. It signed on the dotted line and stumped up the first $9 million. Yet 18 months later, it hadn’t provided any more funding.
It has been eight years since the full potential of Barryroe was uncovered, and not a drop of the black stuff has been pumped commercially. For the international reputation of Ireland’s entire exploration industry, Barryroe simply must be delivered. Linn may be its last chance.
I noticed on Bloomberg that they mentioned that CNOOC are going to increase their investment in exploration by 20% this year
There is a update on Pat Plunkett's T5 Oil and Gas company today in the Irish Times. Also interesting to see that the Oil price has not really moved in response to the killing of Qasem Soleimani. When the response comes from Iran, Oil could easily spike to $100 a barrel. I also spotted this little paragraph in the Irish Times in a article talking about opinion polls going into the upcoming election:
"Polls just can’t cope with a real-life situation such as in 2016 where the tiny surplus of Joan Collins in Dublin South-Central allowed Bríd Smith to pip Catherine Ardagh (Fianna Fail) for the final seat."
The court case to decide whether the Government have the right to dismiss Brid Smith's ban on Oil and Gas is up for decision on the 20th of January.
Here is the Irish Times article about Pat Plunkett:
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/irish-led-t5-oil-gas-warns-of-business-risk-after-aborted-ipo-1.4131983
If Providence were to be taken over by another company, Lansdowne's position in the new company would remain the same. Holding 20% of the flagship project
Our member companies are the leaders not only in developing new technologies that would allow us to repeat the success of the Kinsale and Corrib gas fields, but also in developing offshore windfarms, solar, hydrogen and geothermal power, as well as harnessing the power of waves and capturing CO2 emissions.
Many have come to me and asked what is going on in Ireland? The contrast between the approach of Scotland and here was often mentioned. Companies that are being actively encouraged by the Scottish government to develop wind, wave and solar alongside a well-established oil and gas exploration sector feel frustrated here. Scotland knows energy companies plan decades ahead, not months or years, and it is working towards a future when renewables will largely replace oil and then gas.
What made the situation even more difficult to fathom is that our politicians embarked on this course knowing that post-Brexit we will be vulnerable when it comes to energy. Without another offshore gas field like Kinsale or Corrib, we will be reliant on imports via Britain.
Not only is this a strategic risk, relying on a country which itself has only the capacity to store eight days' supply of gas, but it also does not make sense in terms of climate action. The UK has to import supplies from Qatar and Russia, generating a much higher carbon footprint.
The Government has finally made clear that it is policy to support and encourage gas exploration. It has again acknowledged the importance of natural gas as a transition fuel and its key role as we move towards a zero-carbon economy.
The policy paper brings us in line with other European countries and those further afield who recognise that natural gas gives us that bridge and allows us to have power to sustain and create jobs while also meeting our climate obligations.
It will provide a clear commitment that Ireland is open for business to develop the energy potential of our offshore.
For more than four decades, natural gas from Kinsale Head and Corrib has kept us safe from a repetition of the energy shortages, rationing and long queues resulting from the 1973 oil crisis. However, both fields are now in decline, with Kinsale Head due to cease production in 2020.
It is time to return to the frontier and harness new technology and ensure Ireland becomes a leader in developing and implementing new energy solutions involving all sectors of the energy industry.
Mandy Johnston is CEO of the Irish Offshore Operators' Association