The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
BARRICK Gold CEO Mark Bristow has been grumbling about other people’s deals for nearly three decades. Yet nearly every year the gold sector finds new ways to merge and acquire. This year, Newmont broke all records, buying Australia’s Newcrest Mining for $19.5bn. The deal takes Newmont’s gold production to nine million ounces a year. PwC, the auditor, forecast a ‘mega-deal’ in gold every few years, with at least one substantial deal every year.
“No-one spends any money on their own future through exploration,” says Bristow. His long-standing contention is that the market will reward Barrick for replacing production for the next decade at a cost cheaper than can be achieved in M&A. This approach at Randgold Resources, Bristow’s former company, earned it a premium rating and led to its merger with Barrick in 2019.
Lately, however, there seems to have been a slight switch in Bristow’s thinking. In 2020, he offered to buy Grasberg, a copper mine in Indonesia, from Canadian firm Freeport-McMoRan. This year, Bristow was linked with the takeover of First Quantum Minerals. The two targets have one thing in common: they produce copper, which Bristow thinks has strategic relevance that makes deals in the metal different to gold.
Newmont would agree. Its swoop on Newcrest takes its copper output to 350 million pounds annually, rivalling Barrick, which has forecast production of up to 470 million pounds of the red metal this year. “I think with the big copper deals there’s a lot of upside in the price,” says Bristow. “We have a view about copper and gold: when we announced the Barrick deal, I was very clear this is a copper and gold company. The logic is it comes together.”
Gold’s fortunes are intrinsically linked to global economic conditions. In high inflationary environments, such as the current one, the metal is popular. Political shocks also boost its price. In more sanguine economic times, gold underwhelms. Over time, the metal is a proven portfolio hedge. It’s different for copper, however. Government-sanctioned efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions are forecast to underpin its price for years to come given copper’s heavy usage in renewable energy and electric mobility. “We forecast copper demand in renewable energy to increase from 997,000 tons in 2020 to 1.9 million tons in 2030,” said Jefferies, a bank.Bristow also says gold miners have no choice but to accept copper into their portfolios because new gold discoveries are predominantly porphyries which are copper containing. He also thinks the structure of ownership in copper output needs to be changed to achieve the best investment outcomes – something investment banks have yet to get their heads around. “The rest of the mining industry has to reallocate its assets or rearrange it because a copper mine in BHP or a copper mine in Rio, you lose
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/54430-deal-shy-bristow-to-break-form-as-barrick-eyes-copper/
We all agree Havieron is under valued and other assets will be undervalued by NCM as well why? because they want the merger to go through at the price offered by Newmont if more UpToDate valuations are put out then NCM share holder are going to rock the boat .Once the deal is completed Newmont can revaluate the assists with all the new current data and say look what a fantastic deal we made for our share holders
However, there are several factors to suggest that the project value may have changed since then:
therefore we will assign it a value of between $500 and $600 million including Telfer.
NCM cannot sell there 70% of Hav and Telfer in one deal we have no obligation to buy Telfer .Telfer has a minus value on it own and Hav has huge cost to finish and build a new processing plant so catch 22 .Any other miner that is thinking about taking there 70% of Have and Telfer would have to bid separately as we have first refusal so what value for Hav on its own an independent valuation must make it very low because it cannot include Telfer in the calculations and up to now all the previous valuations have been based on Telfer processing the ore . In my view it would make no sense for Newmont to sell at this time
JiffyBag these are my rough calculations
To raise $50m .
at 7p = 350m shares issued.
at 8p = 312m shares issued = around 7% dilution.
at 9p = 277m shares issued.
at 10p = 250m shares issued = around 5% dilution.
A 5% dilution I think would not do any damage in the medium to long term but we do not know what kind of sums they have in mind if they do a capitol raise .
Antipa Minerals out to unlock Minyari Dome potential with expanded drill program
Antipa Minerals Ltd (ASX:AZY) will target substantial resource growth and new greenfield discoveries at its flagship Minyari Dome Gold-Copper Project in Western Australia’s Paterson Province, with an expanded phase 2 drilling program that’s set to commence this month.
Pacman targets
The Pacman targets are about 30 kilometres east of the Minyari deposit. Two of the three targets are magnetic highs with partially coincident gravity highs, also bearing some resemblance to Havieron.
The other Pacman target is a gravity high with a partially coincident magnetic high, bearing a geophysical likeness with the regional Nifty high-grade copper deposit.
All three Pacman targets are hosted by interpreted Havieron-equivalent stratigraphy under around 350 metres of cover. The closest effective drill hole to any of the Pacman targets is around 10 kilometres away.
Diamond core drill testing of two of these large-scale greenfield targets is scheduled for November, supported by a further $220,000 government co-funding drilling grant.
Antipa managing director Roger Mason said: “The 100%-owned Minyari Dome Project offers Antipa a compelling gold exploration and development opportunity in Western Australia’s Paterson Province, and is strategically located just 35 kilometres from Newcrest’s 22 million tonnes per annum Telfer processing facility.
Cross-listing on the ASX which is targeted to occur during the September 2023 This is what is written in the RNS dated 2 May 2023.
Greatland confirms that its ASX Listing preparations remain on track and it has been evaluating whether to conduct a potential equity capital raising as part of that process. RNS dated 16 May 2023.
Advancing preparations for a cross-listing on the ASX which is targeted to occur during the September 2023 quarter, subject to regulatory
The ASX listing is on track and is going to happen by the end of the month there has been no RNS to say its not just SD saying lodged ? in the September Quarter in so his interview its this kind of confusing information that makes my blood boil . we need a clear statement now
We are working towards the publication of an updated MRE, which will incorporate data from a further 80,000 metres of growth drilling at Havieron since our March 2022 MRE update. We are targeting completion and announcement of an updated MRE during the December 2023 quarter and look forward to updating the market in due course."
Should this statement also be taken with a pinch of salt and the MRE may not be published in the December quarter but in the March 24 quarter .We can only believe what we are told and right now we need a clear statement so there is no confusion
Cross-listing on the ASX which is targeted to occur during the September 2023 This is what is written in the RNS dated 2 May 2023.
Greatland confirms that its ASX Listing preparations remain on track and it has been evaluating whether to conduct a potential equity capital raising as part of that process. RNS dated 16 May 2023.
ASX Listing
Advancing preparations for a cross-listing on the ASX which is targeted to occur during the September 2023 quarter, subject to regulatory
clearance. Greatland’s AIM listing will be retained such that existing shareholders can continue to trade Greatland on AIM
Corporate Presentation | May 2023
ASX Listing – Update
§ As part of the ASX Listing, Greatland is evaluating a corporate reorganisation, so that the Greatland
group would be housed under a new parent company incorporated in Australia (Reorganisation)
‒ If progressed, the Reorganisation would be effected through a scheme of arrangement under
the Companies Act 2006 (UK), and would be subject to approval by Greatland’s shareholders
and the UK courts, meaning that shareholders would have the opportunity to consider and vote
on the Reorganisation
‒ Applications would be made for the admission of the new Australian-incorporated parent
company to trading on both the ASX and AIM
‒ Greatland appreciates that shareholders may have questions about the Reorganisation and if
the Reorganisation is pursued, shareholders will be provided with detailed information to
consider ahead of a shareholder vote on the matter
§ With a high quality base of UK shareholders that have supported Greatland on its growth journey to
date, Greatland remains committed to the UK market and will remain listed on AIM should it
complete an ASX Listing
This to me says it will be completed in the September quarter they have had more than enough time to say its not going to happen at the end of this month why constantly say Advancing preparations for a cross-listing on the ASX which is targeted to occur during the September 2023 quarter, Occur (happen; take place).
Further to previous communications, Greatland is advancing its preparations for a cross-listing on the ASX which is targeted to occur during the September 2023 quarter subject to regulatory clearance (ASX Listing).
So far there has been no updated information other than SD saying it remains on schedule so we should be listed this month. If its not going to be completed then we should have been informed by now .
Do not understand this bit potential joint venture with Greatland Gold. Don't we have 2 joint ventures with Newcrest.
The Havieron team, work in a highly collaborative environment, with interaction with early development teams, mining studies, mining and exploration teams. Our exciting Havieron Project the primary target of the Newcrest-operated farm-in and potential joint venture with Greatland Gold and forms a key focus of Newcrest’s growth strategy. The Project is located in the Paterson Province, Western Australia, approximately 45km east of Newcrest’s 100%-owned Telfer mine.
I am sure I will be corrected but here goes
The money involved in GGP buying NCM 70% must be at least $1Bn based on a 25% increase on the $60m 5% valuation.
other costs
$50m loan repayment ( think we still have to pay NCM)
The cost to buy Telfer and its liability's or build a new processing plant (500m - 1Bn )
The cost to finish the decline and mine
The Transport needed ( trucks )
contingency money in the bank 100m +
GGP do not have that kind of money and I do not think any bank will finance us without GGP raising at least half of the costs involved so going it alone is in my view not an option.
A new partner on a 50/50 % share would still be a huge expense and will need funding . The backing from the banks we have now would have to be renegotiated and I think they would want us to raise funds first before they commit to that.
The hole take over of NCM is a massive headache for SD and the stress he must be feeling right now we can only imagine. The best out come would be if Newmont continued with the JV but that's starting to feel like wishful thinking .
There is one other option that one of the big mining company's makes an offer for our 30% and NCM 70% as well as Telfer . If we are offered say around $500m we could get around 7-8p a share pay-out( Special dividend) but what would GGP be worth after that. SD said an offer would have to be a eyewatering amount but the value at this time is not going to be eyewatering . GGP could be taken over completely for under 500m that's almost 50% on the current value
The possible sale of our 30% maybe why we have gone 100 mph on the Rio deal it could be like starting Hav all over again but with GGP owning 70% of the asset . All the long term investors wanted to see us build a mine go into production and start to get dividends and start to build a multi million dollar company .
EVs can use as much as 80 kgs (176 pounds) of copper, four times the amount used in a typical combustion engine vehicle. In a report this week, Goldman Sachs said EVs accounted for two-thirds of the global demand growth in copper last year
With all the uncertainty you have to ask the question if you are a new Australian investor ( private or Institution) would you jump at the chance to buy GGP shares my answer is no so the next question why list on the ASX right now makes no logical sense.
Gold Fields looking to add ounces in Australia
SOUTH African miner Gold Fields is looking for organic and inorganic growth opportunities in Australia.
Gold Fields has four mines in Western Australia which produced 509,000 ounces of gold at all-in costs of A$1879 an ounce in the first half of 2023.
subscription needed to read the article
https://www.miningnews.net/leader-interviews/news/1457855/gold-fields-looking-to-add-ounces-in-australia
someone posted as share price Greatland gold fields 0.9 usd just probably a strange coincidence.
In 2015 Telfer was up for sale then Newcrest changed there mind.
2016
Newcrest not interested in JV for Telfer, but open to sale for the right price
Newcrest Mining Ltd. is content with the growth path it is on with respect to its Telfer gold mine in Western Australia and is not considering bringing in a partner.
Managing Director and CEO Sandeep Biswas told attendees at a Nov. 21 investor day in Sydney, Australia, that he does not see a need for a joint venture partner for the operation, which the company considered selling in 2015.
"There's got to be a reason to do it," he said. "We don't need the money. Our balance sheet is strong and getting stronger. The question is how will you get a differential add there and still hang onto 50%? So theoretically we're open to it, but I see no compelling reason to seek it."
Philip Stephenson — executive general manager for the Gosowong, Telfer and Bonikro operations — said Newcrest's decision to keep the mine was paying off.
"Obviously we elected to keep Telfer and I think that's already proving to be a prudent decision, and by the way that was against the headwinds at the time," he said.
"You'll remember a lot of our North American peers were divesting their Australian assets, sometimes at fire sale prices, or what I would certainly consider to be a fire sale price, but last year alone we spun US$126 million out of Telfer. It's a low-grade, high-volume operation. When the Aussie gold price is reasonably buoyant it spins off a lot of cash."
Newcrest wants to maintain its optionality going forward, and instead of investing in large cutbacks has decided to undertake incremental cutbacks to extend the life of the mine.
The company has hedged about half of Telfer's gold production over the next three years to support the investment in a series of cutbacks and has indicated it may hedge more when additional CapEx is needed.
Newcrest has committed between A$50 million and A$70 million to access ore at Main Dome stages six and seven through to the 2018 financial year and West Dome stage three interim through to fiscal 2019.
However, the company is yet to make a decision on future cutbacks and has more work to do on its cost base ahead of a final decision.
"Obviously that will be heavily dependent on our cost base, and I guess that's one of the reasons that we were so committed to reducing that cost base through the transition from owner mining to contract mining," Stephenson said.
"So we've still got a bit of work to do on that and we'll make those calls as we approach those investment decisions."
The all-in sustaining cost for Telfer in the current financial year was US$967 per ounce.
Newcrest is also looking at converting additional resources to reserves to extend the life of Telfer and has undertaken its first seismic survey in 20 years which has identified new structures.