Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Lejjb
Firstly I agree with your comment re "SC...repeatedly shouted partial pictures" etc, a very accurate assessment, imho.
However, concerning the debt, I have an email conversation with Findlay, the previous CEO from 2016 which is still both relevant & disconcerting in 2023 and I quote ;
"of total debt of £1.273bln, £853mln is long term, (out to 2035) & secured on freehold properties. It is at a fixed rate of interest of approximately 6% (fixed at some time in the mid 2000's). To repay this debt would incur a very significant redemption penalty"... and then it goes on to discuss the other debt which is less inflexible.
I suggest that this is why the debt reduction programme is so modest relative to their current debt mountain.
I guess paying 6% today with base rate at 5.25% is respectable but it does not take very long to work out what paying 6% when base rates were at nothing to a jjam tart over such a period of time led to under investment & ultimately sellng off control of the real jewel, their brewery.
However as I also posted that with the SP down here in a 30p dustbin it is option money (& of course every dog has its day).
Thus I believe Mr Market is about right, yes they might get lucky & sell off a bunch of pubs or they will continue to wallow in the gravel & grit that they are currently in.
Personally I would much prefer to re read what Findlay wrote then, which is even more relevant today without control of the brewery & having gone through lockdowns, than "poundland puffs" every few days from the usual suspects.
Oddly enough I normally find Fairdealer posts well researched knowledge as opposed to out & out puffing like some others seem to specialise in.
I too would very much like to see how many pubs on the "for sale" list have actually been sold. It is totally disingenous to take one, rather questionable sale, to a buyer who wanted easier access, and is now considered to be a possible case of arson, to read across that all their properties are undervalued when those of us with memories remember well the fiasco of the aborted Pitcher & Piano sales, pre covid when property markets were buoyant !
As I posted earlier with the shares at 30p or under we are really looking at option money, but it is important that buyers realise options are more like a punt with a spread better or a trip to the bookies as opposed to conventional investment.
So long as buyers know what the risks are that is fine, but stocks like this are never a simple one way bet.
Clearly the lack of a bid from a VC specialist or a vulture fund leads me to believe that the assets may be worth less than they are shown in the accounts currently.
Dave
I agree, there is a consistency in their brief & not terribly illuminating updates, which is less than encouraging, it is a surprise to me that they are guiding us lower as you would think the interest rate hikes would have taken up the slack in less activity.
As to the rise in costs re the investigation of the trusted person, this is a surprise that we weren't guided on this earlier than now.
All in all a disappointment today.
Dulyred
You are quite correct in thinking that Amati will likely sell some more, imho.
Reason I say this is that they recently had a vct portfolio manage (1 of 3) to leave and to "stay at home looking after the children" & she was always giving a bullish impression of this & a few other under performers.
It seems Dr Jourdan is taking a more pro active role again, as well he might with a large personal shareholding in the vct whose nav has halved in a short space of time, & that would reinforce your thoughts.
I am certainly not saying he will sell the entire holding but when they do sell in these underperforming stocks 20% is quite common.
Not saying it will mean he will keep on selling but certainly not to be dismissed on past performances.
I see the RNS today shows that Amati reduced their holding, they were one of the original backers of the flotation.
Anyone else seen the RNS today giving directors awards for their efforts last year and this year ?
If it was a plan connected to the SP we might be getting some money back.
How can they seriously be given awards on their performance?
I am flabbergasted.
Well they have had a serious hit again today, despite being long & wrong I felt I had to buy some more at just under 72p.
Fortune favours the brave (I hope) !
Onsolid
Sunday Times ran another story yesterday on BOO as well, which is that BOO suppliers are having their credit guarantees halved by at least one guarantor, Allianz.
This indicates that they are not confident that BOO are as credit worthy now as they were, which makes a bid for REVB much less likely & indeed could encourage a sale of their stake in REVB in order to become more liquid.
dyor
I thought these looked encouraging, certainly no shockers in there that I picked up, trading volumes low, as we guessed, but made up for by higher interest rates.
Stuart
Given the time this is taking my best guess is that the 3rd parties who use Jarvis platform & clearing etc under their own name are causing this issue. If, for instance, one or two of these 3rd parties were a little sloppy with selecting their own customers this would flow back to Jarvis hence the need to look right through their systems & into 3rd parties.
If this was a JIM only issue my guess it would have been cleared up some time ago as from my experience they KYC, but it is much more difficult to if the customer has been approved by a 3rd party.
Just my take on this but it seems logical.
Alfredo
I was given a phone call about February as I had been told before Christmas how valuable it was likely to be !
Things are never quite what they seem in Mercia land, hence my considerable cynicism...
Alfredo
I suspect that you are spot on, clearly Koch appear better at this game than Mercia are.
Scharnhorst
As an eis holder in Sense bio I totally agree with you, they certainly suckered me (some years pre covid) & looks like they suckered themselves during covid.
Divi less than generous too...
Phil
You & me both !
Old
I fear you are correct, they definitely had a focus on gaming, which must make us wonder how astute their stock selection really is ?
Lejib
Spot on.
A perfect observation !
If people post on here news is much better than history, sadly some regurgitate history pretending it is news, presumably for their own agenda ?
Thevid
Sadly I am long & wrong, but still hopful !
They are still offered at 86.7p.
The 2 trades at 88p of 150k each were yesterday, so not wonderful.
They go XD next week
Shape
I agree with you, the real fear here is interest rates and despite posters saying they won't be high for long rates always tend to stay higher for longer in every cycle, what's worse is they are almost certainly not at their peak yet.
The other issue is the Pub itself, younger people often prefer recrational substances (if you want to get stoned these are way cheaper than alcohol today) or also many are now totally teetotal. So are pubs ex growth ?
They certainly appear to be in large parts of the country, if this spread to MARS country it's hasta la vista.
Against this the SP is so battered down here they are option money, if I were a shorter which I'm not but I often was before retirement from the market, I'd be scared to go short here just on the upside downside risk.
When I was first involved with this stock it was so comfortably ensconced in the FT250 that nobody would dream that one day it would be out but that is where we are today, relying on hope & charity, (I suspect more hope than charity from this board)...