Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Meh... if they manage to get their water problems sorted, they'll always be 172+ tankers behind us.
Aliens?
The Lost Treasure of the Sierra Madre?
A s**tload more oil they didn't know about?
I think Aliens.
Of course not.
They've been collecting flow test data since last year... I think they'll have gathered more data than they could possibly need for a CPR by now, personally.
CPRs usually take months to prepare.
What I would dearly love to happen is at 7am one day they announce UKOG shares are being suspended pending an announcement, and then later that day they tell us that the 11 billion barrels under HH are recoverable at a 30% rate, and BP are offering 50p a share to buy us out.
Can't see it happening, but it's a nice dream :)
I think it's difficult to say when positive movement will happen, precisely, but in the nest few weeks work should start on the HH sidetracks... which may inspire a bit more interest.
There is also the CPR that needs to be issued now that we have had extended flow tests. These will be carried out by independent industry experts and will quantify the size of the plays, the expected recovery rates and give solid information upon which HH asset can be valued... of far more interest to the market than "how many tankers are leaving today".
Someone mentioned recently, and I've been thinking the same, that it's a little odd that there is so little mention of the Kimmeridge at HH in the recent RNSs... I'm not sure whether to be concerned or not. If I recall, the flow rates from KL3 and KL4 were perfectly reasonable, and yet we've not been given UKOGs analysis of the test results.
Is it because it turns out the results are actually terrible and we've already drained the Kimmeridge dry, and UKOG are keeping it quiet, or is it because the results are mind blowingly good and UKOG want to perfectly time the announcement to shock the market into rocketing up the share price to where it should be, in short order? The latter hopefully...
The CPR is the key to beginning to attach value to HH, but they usually take a few months to prepare... they're what the markets look to as concrete evidence for valuing oil plays, so the bodies preparing them take their time to make sure they are as accurate as possible!
It also depends on what kind of value you think UKOG has potential for... If you're waiting for 3, 4, 5p then quite possibly you'll see that within the next year or so... if you wait longer... 5 years maybe... then I think the value will be vastly higher than today.
I'll quote myself... "We are literally a few weeks away from the drilling of two wells that will potentially increase production to over 1000 barrels a day and you sell now?"
But I'm a tool? Okay then...
We are literally a few weeks away from the drilling of two wells that will potentially increase production to over 1000 barrels a day and you sell now?
In the future, please don't blame UKOG for your loss.
Yes, it may be frustrating... but just like how when we were all 6 years old we had to wait for Christmas, which always seemed like a lifetime away, we just have to wait for true value to start to be attributed here. Oilfield development is a long, slow process (especially in this country!)
What is it that Warren Buffet says the stock market is a device for again? ;)
Personally, I don't think £12.5 million and the revenue from the two HH sidetracks will cover all the work they have planned for next year... don't forget they're looking at 4 wells at HH, a well and test program in the IOW, a sidetrack and test at BB, a well at GB and maybe even a well at Dunsfold (what the hell are we going to call that? Just D? Big D maybe?).
But...
Once the HH sidetracks are online, and they have CPR's detailed actual reserves, hopefully they will be able to raise finance from other sources than just by issuing more shares.
I think any further issue of shares in the near term will be for the same reason as the last few have been... i.e. to increase UKOG's share of HH, or some other licence, which while not ideal is good for the future value of the company.
Mentioning people is perfectly fine.
Ad hominem insults and slander is not.
Whoops... dodgy fingers... I meant of course Pedantics, not edantics :/
Penguins, I don't believe I've ever "attacked" one of your posts, but my memory is not what is once was... I've barely posted here in the last year and half though, so even if I have, I wouldn't exactly say it was something I have done "as a matter of course", but there we go.
"Semantics are important - RNS are crafted - and I would expect"
Semantics are a toe length away from edantics, and I would expect completed sentences (see what I mean...)
But I still don't see why UKOG's explanation of "prudent well management" is not sufficient for you to accept.
"If they are keeping the rate down to enable them to come under the 5300 tonnes but continue production until HH 1z is being set up why not say so."
Because you seem to be dabbling with semantics Penguins. People have only suggested the 5300 tonne limit as a possible factor in the decision. UKOG have stated what they're doing, they've given a broad explanation of the reason- that's all that really matters... they don't go into excruciating detail on every single other decision they make, why do you feel it's so important about this one?
Yeah, I find it curious that UKOG haven't announced the potential change in operatorship (is that a word?) yet, when all the other involved companies have... so perhaps there will be an RNS combining that and some other news later... could be interesting.
Although I do remember a similar situation once before, where they finally made an announcement the following day, if I recall, so who knows!
Europa have what purpose it serves in their RNS...
They’re handing control to UKOG due to their greater experience of the Weald, and because Europa want to focus their attention on their other locations... I read it as being they can’t be bothered with the hassle of finding another drill site, when their main business is elsewhere.
I think people here read far too much into every little thing. I really can’t see UKOG spending too much time finding a new Holmwood drill site at the moment, when they have a detailed plan of work for the next 2 years... there’s only so much they can get done!
They’re not proceeding with that site any more... the secretary of state for the environment stepped in and refused the planning process to continue, so they’ve been looking for an alternative location for a well site. I think Holmwood has basically been kicked into the long grass... UKOG have HH, Godley Bridge, IOW, BB and now Dunsfold to work on for the next few years!
UKOG have already said why they're producing at a lower rate than previously, in the 18th Feb RNS:
"For prudent reservoir management purposes, the average test production rate from the 114 ft vertical perforated Portland section has been maintained below the previously reported 362 bopd calculated optimised sustainable rate."
i.e. there's no need to stress the reservoir and squeeze as much out as quickly as possible at the moment, and risk damaging the system. When they sidetracks are completed they'll be targeting as much as 3500 bopd, but until then they're taking it easy.
And as Pboo said, they're also nearing the production limit allowed during the "test" period, so they don't want to hit that and have to suspend operations.
Has everyone finished having their hand-wringing, Sanderson slandering, panic attack now, have they?