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Jimjam, I too recently had my second jab and was in town to collect something so went to M&S to see how the stock and shop appeared since I am nursing an 8K loss which has not been ameliorated by dividends. I was rather disappointed. The menswear section was poor with limited choice. The cheaper products, aimed at competing with Primark, were rubbish and comparatively expensive. What the hell is cashmilion? The wool V necks, standard fayre, were £35 each which again is more than the competition and they were tucked away. Everything was geared to summer holidays with shorts and T shirts to the fore. Meanwhile the storm raged outside unabated. Food was the only bright spot. Plus ca change. At least there were people in the store and a large queue outside the cafe.
That untalented chap who did a fantastic impression of a pub singer managed to emulate our performance of 2003. I find the failure rather reassuring. We are universally hated and we know we are. In addition, the final of the Heineken Cup was contested by two French teams while the Challenge Cup was also lifted by a French club. At least there is always football where two English sides chock full of foreigners will contest the final. Not to forget the Tour de France where British, or more precisely English, Zimbabwean and Welsh victories were all wrapped up in the Union Jack. The French fans spat on Froome and abused him constantly on the hills. Maybe we should revert to the home nations as in Football? At least we could all fall out and insult each other regardless of the overall result. On a positive note Josh Taylor became undisputed World Boxing Champ in tartan trunks. That should not impact his nomination as sports personality of the year. Congrats Josh and Scotland.
Good God man what on earth is wrong with a good pair of brogues made on a bench by an English artisan at Trickers or Church? No wonder this country is going to hell in a hand cart. If you can't make it to the continent I suppose you can have a taste via your footwear.
Agreed that anonymity is considered by adopters as a huge advantage since it enables criminality e.g. Silk Road and all the ransom attacks. However, governments are keeping a very close eye on forums/ platforms and can trace and shut down activity when they want.
The other constituency that use crypto extensively are those seeking to avoid capital controls or evade taxation. Hence the use in China and Venezuela. It is much easier to transfer 10 million dollars on a memory stick than in gold. Crypto is a wonderful way to store concealed wealth. That said, when Western Union charge 10% to transfer money from the US to Mexico or from Europe to African countries there is an enormous saving of transaction and FX costs.
Finally crypto appeals to libertarians and those who are sceptical about the future of fiat. Crypto is governed by mathematics rather than a bunch of self-interested plutocrats at the IMF who meet each year at Davos to congratulate one another and decide the fate of the world's poor. It represents a challenge to the authority of nation states and pan global institutions. Will 'they' allow it to flourish? It poses a major threat to entrenched financial interests and Nation States themselves. I find the idea of the distributed ledger fantastic but suspect it will be put out of business by international agreements.
Theosus, figuring out what might be the next 'big sector' is precisely what I advocate; identifying market inefficiencies and moving before or against them. Oil and Tobacco are currently unfashionable as is Gold. Thus I look at fundamentals and accounts, concluding these sectors are due a significant rise when people reject fairy tale stocks with no income and switch to dividend producing equity. When the sh** hits the fan we will all need to eat, drive, heat our homes and smoke! Tesla will look like Disneyland when the bills need to be repaid!
The point is not 'risk' per say but the analysis of said risk vs the potential reward. How did diversification work post Sept 15th 2008 compared to the returns for Burry, Bass, Lippmann, Eisman et al? To beat the system you have to recognise when risk is fundamentally under priced and the market sentiment is unbalanced. It is also about the nature of the risk and the mentality of the investor. What is the order of pay-off? Is it scalable? Tail risks discounted by complacent investors who rely on Gausian models are precisely where enormous potential gains hide, Taleb (07).
Some posters advocate 'security' strategies without even comprehending the theoretical underpinnings or systemic risk. Diversification is a comfort blanket for the risk averse and unimaginative. Backing a horse at 33:1 is a smart bet if it stands a 5% chance of winning. Some of the tired tropes trotted out on this board are out of date, especially in a world dictated by by passive and algorithmic trading.
To spread the risk perfectly just buy a Vanguard FTSE 250 tracker. Otherwise you are just trying to emulate an index with outsized transaction and holding costs. You invest to beat the market not mirror it.
Congrats Bruv. Kudos on your successful bet. But.....if you are prepared to gamble like that, you'll be back! I agree that diversification is a 20th Century concept, especially with the quantum of passive investing. Find something you believe in and put your money down. As Buffett says, why invest in the stock that is your 20th choice? Buy more of your favourite. Happy retirement if you can ignore the urge to get back in the market!
Neil prices dictate all things. As long as the UK public demand jeans that cost £6, cordless drills for a tenner and microwave ovens for £20, the inexorable trend is downward. Producers are forced to compete on price which invariably means exploitation of cheap labour unless, or until, automation can be substituted.
If you recall the indignation when hundreds died in the Dhaka factory collapse a few years ago or a similar fire where over 100 workers lost their lives in 2012. All the big brands tried to distance themselves from association. Look inside your knitwear and see how much comes from Bangladesh. Don't get me started on Apple and Foxxcon where margins could support better pay and conditions.
The reason that Aldi, Lidl, Screwfix and Tool Station are doing so well is because we buy cheap carp and don't care about the poor sods who make it.
Ultimately the blame lies with human nature. We are driven to desire what we don't need and consume at a rate that destroys the planet and exploits the poor and needy.
If you are trading those volumes frequently and need advice you are in the wrong place brother. This is a BS insults pit.
CSDI I feel like a stalker. Every share I follow with interest you seem to be invested in. No doubt we both have the bargain hunting, prudent, old school value metrics approach. I am heavily into oil, tobacco, finance, mining, telecoms and some bounce back retail/ pharma. I bet I have 80% of the same stocks as you. Like you I find the current valuation justifications ridiculous. But then we live in a world where a serial fraudster and fantasist is the richest person on the planet, where a banana duct tapped to the wall is considered fine art and some cretin in New York sells a years worth of digital recordings of flatulence to other morons at $75 a time as NFTs, whatever the hell they are. Talk about spending a penny or taking the p***. When the PE and Yield are separated by a couple of points I conclude that the company is facing imminent bankruptcy or is radically undervalued. In the case of IMB the yield is 3.33% points above the PE compared to Tesla with a PE that exceeded 1600. Proponents talk about potential but I rather think they have been smoking potential! Reassuring to see that great minds think alike......but fools seldom differ. We shall see. Good luck and I hope you don't live up to your name for both our sakes.
Morningsun, what makes it even worse is that if a bank like GS does a trade within a dark pool introducing buyer to seller it does not have to pay a market maker and can also trade from its props desk in the same equity. A lot of really shady stuff went on concealed from view prior to the GFC. Transparency gives us all a fair chance, but major institutions keep market sensitive data under wraps while making side bets, see Fabulous Fabien of Wall Street infamy .
Is it just me or do other readers recognise the curious similarity between this board and the old Barrymore game show Strike it Rich with the audience screaming higher or lower?
Red, glad to see you are still posting. I recall with a smile the ill natured exchanges between you, PostmanPorsche, Falkland and STD. I cashed out 46K worth at circa £2.44 and was relieved to have made about 20% including dividends. I did the sums recently when the sp hit £5.30 and missed out on just under £54,000 as a result of being lily livered. Congrats to all those who had the faith and courage to hold. I now see Falklands posts on the Lloyds board. You will be pleased to know that he is still creating mayhem, only this time he is positive on the stock! I wonder if Fruitster stuck to his guns? It was his posts along with your own that convinced me to double down and at one point he was holding £800K worth. If so, he will be a happy man! Take care and best wishes.
TP not heard of him but will have a look. Down day at kick-off. Lloyds needs to break the range bound trading pattern 40-42p. A bit of good news could give us a leg up. We need it because this rally looks to have run out of steam.
TP, the MSM is designed to cause hysteria. If you take it too seriously and follow it too closely your worry yourself senseless. Twain said that if you don't read the newspaper that makes you uninformed, whereas if you do, that makes you misinformed. I love the Wilde quote in Dorian Gray, "Yet the roses are not less lovely for all of that." Life goes on and true enlightenment is accepting your own insignificance. Stocks go up, stocks go down, the world still turns.
Thunder, I like tobacco because it is unfashionable and pays great dividends. I read last year that BAT had been the best stock over the preceding 20 years taking capital and dividends into account assuming reinvestment. I tend to focus on Macro. Are people going to keep smoking? Yes. Is tobacco an addictive product with elastic qualities? Yes. Are EM sales volumes likely to replace DM reductions? Yes. Are the tobacco companies well run with a strong history of dividend payments? Yes. Are share prices historically low with a market caps below NAV? Yes. There are so many strong business reasons to buy BAT and IMB to my mind. I also like oil majors which are unloved. However, signs are emerging of economies roaring back to life which would change the horizon dramatically. I am invested in both IMB and BAT and see them both as a good bet but I think companies holding big debt burdens may encounter issues depending on the nature of the debt.
Thunder I agree with your inflation predictions. The POO (price of oil) being a major driver and unprecedented levels of money printing. The only thing that has kept the genie in the bottle thus far is distribution. In the US particularly, much 'new money' has been concentrated on Wall Street leading to share price inflation see Tesla and all the SPACS. There have also been huge rises in crypto with BC exceeding $60,000 recently. The velocity of circulation has slowed however meaning that each dollar in issue moves around the system more gradually counteracting quantum increases. With QE for the masses, aka stimulus cheques, that money comes out to play. If you also factor in supply chain contractions caused in response to Covid, increasing commodity prices, and a load of pent up demand due to lack of buying opportunities over the past year, you approach near perfect conditions for inflation to return. Finally if you factor in that governments around the world have manipulated interest rates downwards to prevent a repeat of the Great Depression debt deflation phenomenon, the writing is on the wall. The Fed, EcB, BoJ, BoE etc. cannot increase rates to counter inflation because by so doing they bankrupt a nascent economic recovery and themselves into the bargain. Current debt levels can only be serviced (note I don't mention repaid) at near zero rates. Thus all economies will be allowed to run hot, inflating away debt and benefitting borrowers over savers, profligacy over prudence once again. TINA.
Eccles, it is simply boredom and dogmatism. Not directed at anybody simply a suggested cause.
Wait till tomorrow. I felt like i had run a marathon on the next day then fine the following day. GL