The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
CompassWars – There hasn’t been a whole lot of detail on the mechanics of the proposed BP funding provided in either the re-admission docs or the earlier investor presentation (unless I've missed it somehow).
We do know that the prepayment loan is underpinned by a hedge with a gainshare / painshare arrangement where if the oil price is > the hedge price, UOG retain a chunk of the upside and if the oil price is < the hedge price, UOG don’t suffer too much. What the hedge price is and the details of the gainshare / painshare arrangements are, I haven’t seen formally disclosed nor the interest rate on the facility.
For interest, Delboi mentioned a couple of months ago on here and twitter that Serica (SQZ) had a BP prepayment facility until recently. Digging back through their old annual reports for 2017 & 2018, the interest rate charged was LIBOR + 4.5%pa and repayments based on a % of their retained share of revenue from the project assets, so I’m expecting a similar kind of mechanism for UOG based on a set % of net revenue post PSC deductions
Page 66 of the attached gives some detail. The note in their 2018 accounts is v similar
https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/reports/Serica%20Annual%20Report%202017.pdf
Fwiw having a quick play on excel, $8m over 30 months at 5.5% interest, would give monthly repayments (incl interest) of around $290k pm ($3.4m pa). Optivas analyst paper from Dec'19 refers to $3.2m pa, so same ballpark.
Hope that helps a bit
Cheers vwt25.
This meeting was when JL forgot to crouch when the photographer said cheese..
https://twitter.com/UOGPLC/status/1227887407690899456
JackDiamonds - FYI very similar cash position to my calcs. From an alternative method..
£2.8m …. Cash at 30/06/19
a, Inflows:
£2.4m …. Placing July'19 £2.6m x 93%(post fees)
£22.5m … Placing Oct'19 £24m - £1.5m fees
b, Outflows
(£1.0m) …. Aug'19 Rathlin investment
(£0.8m) …. Sep'19 Danube investment - Option 1
(£16.0m) ... Nov'19 Rathlin additional investment, transfer of funds confirmed
(£0.1m) …. Nov'19 Corallian investment - G&A /IPO Prep
(£2.0m) …. Nov/Dec'19 Danube Investment - Option 2
(£0.5m) …. G&A to Feb'20 (incls California). H1'19 Admin Costs £0.4m x 8/6
c, California
£0.9m …. 150bopd x 240 days x $30 contribution pb = $1.1m
(£0.6m) … VG-6 drill 50% of well costs (estimate $1.4m gross)
d, Estimates / Contingency
(£0.1m) … VG-4 Development costs - well back online from end July'19, all costs in H1'19?
(£0.2m) … MS1/2 wells - re-entry & clean, new intervals, additional facilities (estimate)
= £7.3m at end Feb'20
… if LSE let you embed s/sheets it would have saved a lot of typing
artyth - hope alls well mate
.. at the Egypt Petroleum Show (Tues-Thurs), so hopefully they can get the deal over the line whilst in country
https://twitter.com/UOGPLC/status/1225361132426231808
Looking at the mugshots on the EGYPS 2020 website, Kuwait Energy (Abu Sennan operator) has a number of speakers at the show + lots of other industry grand fromage's in attendance
https://www.egyps.com/
DelBoi - there should be a decent re-rate on the 2.6mboe 2P reserves as there's next to nothing (0.5m barrels gross )for the ASH field in the CPR
levistubbs - you've joined the RBD 'party'. Please let myself and PDMSPiper know if you find out whats happening at West Newton!
PDMSPiper - Welcome aboard, you've timed your entry better than many of us. FYI, 4 Egyptian wells planned in 2020 (3 development + 1 water injection) and unconfirmed plans for 2x development wells in 2021. They also have to drill an exploration well by mid-2021 per the licence terms - given the recent success with ASH-2, quite possibly a prospect in the AEB formation as per DelBoi's posts below. $20 per barrel netback is about right once you knock off the impact of the PSC (from your Friday morning post)
BurtonD - cheers for the link
Given we've had 2 extensions to the planned completion date recently, i'm assuming that BL is v busy trying to herd Egyptian cats. They can have a cosy fireside chat when the deals closed and talk about Egypt and BL's future plans for UOG... hopefully that'll coincide with an investor call too
Gwillerz1978 - Targeted production is 150,000 cubic metres of gas per day (c. 5.3mmscf/day) gross. UOG holds a 20% interest.
Italian gas prices c0.25 Euros/cubic metre, gives revenue of 13.7m Euros gross, 2.7m Euros / $3m to UOG pa. Opex, royalties, tax etc to deduct so c.$2m pa to UOG post costs. This figure also quoted on old investor conf calls.
The Jamaica comment is in the full report rather than the overview commentary on the TLW webpage. I might listen to the teleconference call over the weekend to see if the speaker gives a bit more flesh on the bones.
I'm comfortable to sit and hold. Egypt should give them a solid platform to build upon now and they ought to have a decent cash pile at 31/12 incl the $3m from Hibiscus to take into '21. In the event of a *rappy placing I can fly to Dublin from Bournemouth and meet you at UOG !
Indeed Uggy. Increasing the share count by nearly 2/3rds and bloating the market cap to unrealistic levels is only going to result in one thing happening to the SP if a company goes into silent mode on the project its raised the bulk of the cash for... and here we are !
levistubbs - The first UOG presentation I printed when I bought my 1st shares in 2017 had Waddock X 'potential spud in 2018'... shame as its only 10/15 miles from home and I can stick my head over the fence when there's some activity!
Jamaica gets a mention in TLW's report and its not good:
' The remaining write-offs include Jethro, Joe and Carapa well costs in Guyana as a result of drilling results and Kenya Block 12A, Mauritania C3, PEL37 Namibia and Jamaica licence costs due to the levels of planned future activity or licence exits'
I know the new broom at TLW is going to be prudent and get out all the potential bad news out and accounted for but we could do with clarity from BL.
I assume the initial reaction to Benin was +ve as they've stayed in the game post work study. Would be good to have many expert eyes on the dataset though before committing
Agreed about the 3's... no amount of silly pompom waving here or on twitter will change that overnight esp. with the large overhang of placing shares and old warrants. Once the deal completes and the market starts to get regular info flow on production levels, cash etc then it will start to build but I'm expecting slow and steady. ASH-2 will help if that gives us a nice % uplift in production once its stabilised.
levistubbs - Benin appears to be an open ended option deal. UOG spent around $200k last year on an initial seismic data review and the option was supposed to have been exercised 60 days after that, which has long since past. BL was awaiting other potential partners to show interest so i'm assuming the option commitment date is being formally / informally booted to the right.
If you think they are quiet on Benin, whatever happened to Acle?
Agree with your 'most of the things in place to push on' comment - assuming Egypt completes. Production with lots of scope for upside, decent reserves / returns / cashflow and a solid financial backer (BP). The existing portfolio does need some review and shareholder comms though. With the exceptions of Italy and the 31st licencing round N Sea blocks, I've mentally filed the other assets under 'god knows' until BL or the operators give some details. The TLW ops update wasn't promising for Jamaica this week. The only +ve on most of this portfolio is there is very little cash committed in 2020 and they'll have little to distract them from integrating 'UOG Egypt' into the fold in H1.... after that the question is how quickly BL gets bored and looks to add something else.
Only 150 net for the 1st half of Sept in the placing docs grewber so its a big difference. RBD have been repeatedly asked about these higher figs for a number of weeks without response by a number of folks in twitterland. If accurate, you'd think they'd be shouting it via RNS.
I'll believe it when I see it an RNS or see the figs in the accounts.
The placing docs also dated September have a much lower figure. Given the placing docs & presentations were a sales pitch to would-be II's and S&S aren't known for being bearish, they would have presented a higher figure if justified
I remain sceptical.
Given his CV reckon this guy will lead the Parta IM-1 commercialisation programme for ADX during H1'20. As he's based in London he can pool knowledge and contacts with S&S too.
https://adx-energy.com/documents/adx-board-renewal---appointment-and-resignation.pdf
No worries, i'd noticed there was a poster here who was trying to start a war with everyone for a while
I don't do twitter groups as I don't believe in 'group think' and they are always ridiculously pompom waving or wrist slitting
If you watch the ADX Proactive Oil Conference presentation, they cover Parta first and then it switches to Austria for the rest of the 30 mins. You may want to bail after about 12 mins
Haha I hope its a lucky one!
Noticed you'd recently re-bought in, I haven't been posting much here in recent weeks as this board descended into conspiracy theories and pathetic squabbling after the Nov placing.
The only other recent'ish RBD related stuff in recent times (also November) has been from ADX. They've been over in London doing a couple of oil conferences and a Proactive Interview. They are looking to potentially list in Europe, possibly here on AIM. Easily found on youtube if you want to watch.
I think so, they were the 2x talking heads next to the old pot plant S&S did for WN & Parta in Nov. There was a very general Vox audio update on 19/12. Nothing else I've stumbled upon.
Chris - the Directors % on the website is up to date and reflects the shares the Directors acquired in the 18/11/19 RNS. The major shareholders list is out of date as Betty73 has rightly pointed out. There's c. 207m shares held by the Directors (3.08% of the total).
Historically they aren't quick to update the major shareholders list post placings, TR-1's etc. Personally I take a screenprint of the list and play spot the difference when its updated. ATB
levistubbs - nice spot on the PO Valley environmental approval.
Personally v interested in how the story unfolds on the latest N Sea licences they acquired last year in the licencing round - whether post technical work they take it through to drill or 'do another Crown' and flip it. The size of the prize appears to be potentially much larger than Crown (which if I remember correctly was c. 4m barrels mid case) and the Hibiscus / Caldera development is in the next door block (who've acquired Crown) so they'll have their eyes on it