RE: Pre-production broker target: 3.6p (+800%). Upgraded note due.21 Oct 2025 08:17
Using the data from the Blue Star Corporate Presentation that Gordon posted last night, this is what the numbers look like…
Stage 1 Annual Revenue (Galactica Development, Full Capacity):
The Piñon Canyon plant is projected to produce 32,100 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of helium and 37,000 tons of beverage-grade CO₂ annually at full capacity, based on the provided assumptions (continuous operation, 4.2 MMcf/d raw gas input with 2% He and 50% CO₂ composition, no downtime).
Using the given helium price of $750/Mcf and a merchant CO₂ price of $600/ton (high end of the $200-600/ton range from the document, consistent with recent US merchant/liquid CO₂ market data around $590-766/MT from sources like IMARC Group and ChemAnalyst):
• Helium revenue: 32,100 Mcf × $750/Mcf = $24,075,000
• CO₂ revenue: 37,000 tons × $600/ton = $22,200,000
• Total gross annual revenue: $46,275,000
Beyond Stage 1 (Expansion Potential):
Stages 2-4 outline scalable growth as follows and assuming successful execution:
• Stage 2 (Galactica/Pegasus Expansion): Potential for 30+ wells and up to 4 processing plants similar to Piñon Canyon. If each replicates Stage 1 output, this could yield ~128,400 Mcf He and ~148,000 tons CO₂ annually (4x Stage 1), for gross revenue of ~$185.1 million at the same prices. This assumes full resource development and similar gas compositions/flow rates.
• Stage 3 (CO₂ Commercialization): Unlocks additional high-grade CO₂ (up to 99%) from the Serenity discovery, with up to 20 drill locations. This could add a substantial CO₂ stream (no quantified estimate, but potentially comparable to or exceeding Galactica/Pegasus output), boosting revenue by tens of millions if commercialized at $600/ton.
• Stage 4 (Acreage-Wide Expansion): Targets 300,000+ gross acres with a large prospect inventory and historical success. Could support multiple new discoveries and plants, potentially multiplying production/revenue several times over (e.g., 10x+ Stage 1 if fully realized), supported by farm-in partners for risk-sharing.
Overall potential: Multi-year scaling could drive gross annual revenue to $200-500+ million, driven by helium/CO₂ demand growth (e.g., semiconductors, AI, food/beverage). However, this depends on drilling success, permitting, financing, market prices (helium $350-1,000/Mcf; CO₂ $200-600+/ton), and risks like commodity volatility or environmental regulations.
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