Member Info for B2HS2L

SteveV, Come the update at the end of January, competitors will want to compute the NCYT market share.
Everyone knows we've done well, so the next thing might be to look at our strong points - large distributor network, and owner of a handy little portable instrument manufacturer, how much IP we have, how many really good skills we have and how many innovative ideas have we brought to market. - How many contracts do we have.
Thats when things might get lipsmackingly good for those with a big wallet.

Not before our share price has advanced some though.

EXMEX & troublesome -
The contract is for supply of direct-to-PCR RNA extraction kit Exsig™ Direct, - no extraction required.

Jungla ref your 21:05-
"When estimating unit prices I think you must take into account whether support to a particular buyer (or reseller) will be needed or not.
When selling to a distributor, I suppose one or two training sessions will suffice (if at all) and then the distributor (once his people are trained) will take over the support to his customers, usually labs who won't need much support anyway.
When directly selling to hospitals it is very well possible people will have to operate the devices that have no lab experience at all. Makes it more complicated. Hence more support needed."

++++

The second DHSC contract to supply 300 instruments and kits was signed at the end of September.

September and October 2020 - from spreadsheet - eight Field Application Specialists and eight Account manager roles identified and recruited, (can't recall if contract or permanent).
I believe one of these two roles, included within the job specification, that they would be training customer staff on use of q16 / q32 instruments.
They would have been busy when PROmate was launched, one of the main reasons I believe for their recruitment.

RNS 16.11.2020 Introduced "PROmate, - a new CE Mark approved product designed to further improve the workflow efficiency of COVID-19 testing when used in combination with the Company's q16 and q32 instruments. The reagents involved in the Company's COVID-19 RNA extraction and PCR test products have been repackaged, with some reagents also freeze-dried, to reduce the amount of consumables and the number of steps required, thereby reducing operator complexity and improving cycle times. In addition, PROmate™ uses a viral inactivation methodology validated by Public Health England for potential use outside of laboratory environments.
As Novacyt's NPT system continues to be deployed across the NHS, and globally, this improvement in workflow efficiency for COVID-19 testing is expected to make the system one of the quickest and easiest to use PCR platforms in its class."

At least some of the cost of the above staff would be attributable to the DHSC contract, but equally, some of their time will be attributable to new customers as and when identified.

Independent newspaper - 26.10.2020 - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-tests-hospital-target-cases-nhs-rapid-latest-b1346668.html

AFAIK this article is the only report of < 300 instruments being made available to DHSC under part 1 of second contract, so IMO discussion of delivery of < 300 instruments is incorrect.
Please advise if the Independent is not the only report of this lower than expected instrument delivery.

++++
Thanks for doing a wonderful job of collating all the research Shaun.
The spreadsheet is the added value that is the difference between this BB and other BB's IMO.

The difference here IMO is that the contract has been split into two announced phases.
As I explained, I think there could be circumstances where no announcement for a phase 2 commencement need be announced, leaving us all wondering if any of phase 2 has been taken up, due to lack of an announcement.
GM won't want shareholders to be out of the loop like this, but he has taken every opportunity so far to minimise what news the market gets.
To the extent I wonder if the contract was written in this way, because it suited one party if not both.
I believe 300 instruments was all that could be arranged for phase 1 in the time available, remember IT-IS was a supplier and not an integral part of Novacyt at the end of September.

Yes Hartlebury, I tend to agree. - GM has advised the market of the two phase deal.
"Depending upon the uptake - the second phase of the contract, which is optional by the DHSC,
allows for the provision of UP TO ".....

To my way of thinking the phase 2 states what the maximum requirement only could be.
If the phase 2 order was substantially different, or as described, GM could say nothing because
he has already stated there MAY be a phase 2.

In particular, - if DHSC want to be drip fed instruments and test kits, GM has reassured them that "Novacyt has the capacity to meet the demand of both phases of this new contract", and as drip feeding means GM is unaware of the final value of phase 2 until it ends, or is extended, he might say nothing to maintain the usual radio silence.

Thank you LSE - now for the formatted version..

RNS 29 September 2020
New contract with UK DHSC for instrument platforms and COVID-19 testing kits

"Novacyt announces it has signed a new supply contract with the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for its q16 and q32 Rapid-PCR instrument platforms, exsig® COVID-19 Direct kits and genesig® SARS-CoV-2 Winterplex kits."
++++

Consider how much bad press the unsatisfactory Chinese made 'Innova' product has had.

Consider how much bad press the q16/q32 product has had.

I am aware of an adverse article in the Independent authored by a rooky sports writer, that had one or two updates, but little else.

Training and maintenance services for the q16 and q32 instrument platforms is a feature of the contract, so if training were judged by DHSC to leave some questions unanswered, the company could easily make the required changes, with the area reps previously recruited.

We are certain the instruments and test kits work.

If there was dissatisfaction with phase 1 of the contract, I'm sure we'd know.

The RNS has this to say about phase 2:

"The second phase of the contract, which is optional by the DHSC, allows for the provision of up to 700 additional PCR instruments, related kits and support services, as well as additional COVID-19 products from the Company's portfolio where required. Depending upon the uptake, phase two of the contract could generate considerably more sales than the first phase."

+++

If the DHSC are unhappy with the instrument and / or the test kits, everything is in place for Primerdesign to rectify the situation quickly for a valued customer in a home market.

DHSC stated they were willing to try using the products in different environments, - Hospital triage, Doctors surgeries and care homes. - I'm not aware of any adverse feedback.

300 instruments are enough to identify how much value and trust is placed on the instruments and kits.

Returning to the RNS, GM states "Novacyt has the capacity to meet the demand of both phases of this new contract, as well as to continue to build its sales across international markets."

Thus I remain confident that Primerdesign will be successful in winning the second part of this contract.

ps - What evidence is there that having announced this two phase contract, nothing will be heard of transition to phase 2 please?

RNS 29 September 2020New contract with UK DHSC for instrument platforms and COVID-19 testing kits"Novacyt announces it has signed a new supply contract with the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for its q16 and q32 Rapid-PCR instrument platforms, exsig® COVID-19 Direct kits and genesig® SARS-CoV-2 Winterplex kits.++++Consider how much bad press the unsatisfactory Chinese made 'Innova' product has had.Consider how much bad press the q16/q32 product has had.I am aware of an adverse article in the Independent authored by a rooky sports writer, that had one or two updates, but little else.Training and maintenance services for the q16 and q32 instrument platforms is a feature of the contract, so if training were judged by DHSC to leave some questions unanswered, the company could easily make the required changes, with the area reps previously recruited. We are certain the instruments and test kits work.If there was dissatisfaction with phase 1 of the contract, I'm sure we'd know.The RNS has this to say about phase 2:"The second phase of the contract, which is optional by the DHSC, allows for the provision of up to 700 additional PCR instruments, related kits and support services, as well as additional COVID-19 products from the Company's portfolio where required. Depending upon the uptake, phase two of the contract could generate considerably more sales than the first phase."+++If the DHSC are unhappy with the instrument and / or the test kits, everything is in place for Primerdesign to rectify the situation quickly for a valued customer in a home market.DHSC stated they were willing to try using the products in different environments, - Hospital triage, Doctors surgeries and care homes. - I'm not aware of any adverse feedback.300 instruments are enough to identify how much value and trust is placed on the instruments and kits.Returning to the RNS, GM states "Novacyt has the capacity to meet the demand of both phases of this new contract, as well as to continue to build its sales across international markets."Thus I remain confident that Primerdesign will be successful in winning the second part of this contract.ps - What evidence is there that having announced this two phase contract, nothing will be heard of transition to phase 2 please?

4,400 adverse events reported in US after receiving Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine

Unsure if this is a reputable source:

https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/diagnostics/4400-adverse-events-reported-in-us-after-receiving-pfizer-biontech-vaccine/80148578

Hi Wilson,
My father had the same operation, and was very poorly before.
Within 4 weeks he had little difficulty climbing the Portland Bill lighthouse, 153 steps.
He got to the top, took one look at the view and decided it was time for a pint, and went strait back down..

You will be fine, good to hear they know what you need, - good luck.

FAO ShaunP

EXMEX 10:30 this morning:
ShaunP, i can't see this US distributor in your file, although I could have missed them .They supply federal, state and local governments in the USA.
https://www.govsci.com/product-detail/Primerdesign/COVID-19-GENESIG/EA/

Is this worthy of spreadsheet inclusion Shaun, - I think you might have missed it?

HarChris -
"can you imagine what's going to happen on here if sales are £400m? It's going to go crazy. Novacyt going from £65m in H1 to £335m in H2 with guidance for 2021 in line or better than 2020."

++++

The present situation seems to be that II's are buying a lot of shares.
With 70 million shares in circulation, there are going to be fewer and fewer shares available.
IMO, when the update arrives in three weeks, there will be a rush for shares, and the sp will swing wildly.
It did this in Feb/March 2020, and the issue will be the timing of any bail-out for those wishing to.
Lots of luck will be required to time exit correctly.
We can't say where the sp will climb to because we don't know the sales figures, but it will be significantly north of present levels.

The main feature will be sp Oscillation, and I'm prepared for sp to test the lows as well as the highs.

£400 million might be on the low side:
1 because we don't know anything about income from the original Covid-19 distribution deals with Bruker and Biotype.
2 We don't know how many Primerdesign products are now being sold by Bruker.
3 We know there are now 3 more Primerdesign tests being sold off the Biotype production line, but nothing about income from this agreement.
4 We don't know what to expect from USA sales, (unsure if we will find out who the US manufacturer / distributor is).
5 We have lots of Primerdesign distributors, but know nothing of their success rate selling Primerdesign products.
6 We don't know if the 5 fold increase in IT-IS output has been sufficient to meet demand.
7 We don't know if the two gene COVID-19 test has been a success, or whether its late arrival in the market means sales have been slow.
8 We don't know if sales to Germany have remained good.
9 Did we win a German or Spanish contract that was mooted on this BB?
10 Have sales to France improved, our other home market?
11 Winterplex, - have sales been in line with the high management expectation?
12 Has the launch of the Antibody test been received well?

Relying on the news we know about to extrapolate likely turnover etc is not likely to be anywhere near accurate.
Looking at the above I think we know 30 to 40% of the whole story, and that's not enough to make educated guesses.

My guess is sales will be higher than £400 million.

Finally, Anthony Dyers important new role in the recent RNS reflects the Company's growth strategy, which includes selective potential M&A to supplement organic growth initiatives.
It's the biggest news in the RNS, because we will have somebody dedicated to M&A and organic growth.
However the following surprises me:
"Anthony Dyer will remain a Board Director until James McCarthy is elected to the Board."
So what will be his future status when McCarthy is voted on, - Non-Exec Director?

That's what I like to see, - somebody who is fed up with sideways sp movement making the situation work for himself, and making himself feel better about his investment.

Dissatisfaction on twitter has over-spilled onto this BB, and we do not have sufficient to complain about when much will be revealed at month end.

I agree, shorter term investors will have a bigger problem, but when the sales results are revealed many of them may adopt a longer term PoV.

Stay patient and stay safe.

https://collectionhub.com/ (bottom of page for Novacyt reference)

I advised Novacyt's use of this global debt factoring service last month, here is the cost of the service:

How does Collection Hub work?
We match global companies struggling with unpaid invoice with vetted and certified professional collection agencies.
We facilitate the debt recovery process from the time you upload your first invoice until the moment your company gets paid.

How many collection agencies have signed up so far?
407

How many countries do you cover?
130

Debt Collection Hub:
We charge our customers 1% of the debt value, but only if your debt is successfully collected by our agencies. No win, no fee.

What is the average collection rate offered by the agencies?
9.99% of the recovered value upon successful recovery
++++
So typically the customer (Novacyt) gets 89% of the debt value.

That's another one recruited by Graham..

That's another one recruited by Graham...

https://celticdiagnostics.com/product/genesig-novel-coronavirus-strain-2019-ncov/

Rapid detection and exclusive to the COVID-19 strain
Daily bioinformatic analysis of the Primerdesign Coronavirus COVID-19 ORF1ab and S gene assays confirms the assays still show 100% detection with all good quality SARS-CoV-2 sequences published on the GISAID EpiCoV database. This includes the South African variant called 501.V2.

Does not detect other related coronavirus strains
High priming efficiency
Accurate controls to confirm extraction, and assay validity
Lyophilised components for ambient shipping
Highly specific detection profile

+++

Great news to have this confirmed, and well done Ted for spotting this info.
Celtic Diagnostics showing the company how it's done!

Courtesy of gggg21 on twitter:

PerkinElmer to Acquire Oxford Immunotec Global PLC

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210107005419/en/PerkinElmer-to-Acquire-Oxford-Immunotec-Global-PLC

.."We have to assume that Graham is doing his level best to create shareholder value and is still on track in turning Novacyt into a mid cap company"...

Many posters want updates when the mother of all updates is due at end of the month.
Graham (bless his cotton socks), can only provide the highest shareholder value by keeping quiet about lots,
so the competition don't find out about the status quo.
Chaps, I can feel one of Shaun's P words coming on.

Sometimes the hardest thing to ask an investor to do is sit in their hands..
Think of the sp we might expect in Jan 2022, and you will realise there ain't no rush..

Stanley,
...to no great effect etc etc.
We'll see to what effect at end of January.
What dates are hot on the Avacta diary Captain. - Exactly