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RedBull thanks for sharing. FWIW, my model for H2 and 2022 is below. Estimates based on the averaged historical API4 benchmark price, and the forward curve used in the future.
H2 2021E
Benchmark export price: $157/ton
Export Equity Sales: 6.8 mt
Operating Profit: £294m
Adj. EBITDA: £335m
Operating FCF: £192m
Dividend: £58m
2022E
Benchmark export price: $127/ton
Export Equity Sales: 17.3 mt (incl. the excess 2021 stockpile)
Operating Profit: £452m
Adj. EBITDA: £519m
Operating FCF: £295m
Dividend: £88m
In addition to gas price movements, perhaps this media release from Transnet is weighing on the SP today:
https://twitter.com/ReliableTFR/status/1458393093754036224
It's interesting just how quiet the order book is today with the JSE closed. I hadn't realised how much JSE participants (and what i presume is automatic price arbitrage between the exchanges) has been driving the SP action lately.
sjsrace - you are right. It seems the note has been updated since this morning, with the the events section changed. The Q3 and Q4 results entries have been removed now and it now lists "FY21 results" sometime in late Q1. So much for getting my hopes up...
The note i'm looking at was published by Liberum this morning. Maintains the buy rating with a TP of £4.80 (from £5.20). Q3 results event is listed as 21st October on the top right corner of front page. I'd post a pic if the forum supported it.
Rylidan - from where do you infer that they've lost a large amount of RBCT exports? The revised export saleable guidance is reduced by a few percent and as BCrader just mentioned - it's still within the range of the initial interim figures!
As someone else on twitter called out - you can think of it as a timing impact on sales. As long as current operations do not become significantly constrained, it represents a shift in revenue (adjusted by the coal price) to FY22.
I think the RNS is pretty clear - the company has not lost a significant proportion of spot exports. To reiterate: the export "saleable" production guidance is revised down from 15-16Mmt to 14.8-15.2mt, so based on the mid-point change (0.5mt) this represents a very small reduction in H2 revenue. Note - this is not caused by a decrease in ROM production - it's a bottlenecking in transport infrastructure, hence the company will continue to build its stockpile of export inventory where possible (guidance of circa +1.3mt in FY22)
FCF yield is significant whichever way you spin it. Here’s a reference set of numbers from Bloomberg’s Andrew Cosgrove (note this was estimated at near peak prices a week ago) : https://twitter.com/acosgrove003/status/1445422194775953410?s=21
For an indication of TGA’s realised price vs spot price have a look at the H1 interim presentation on slide 15. You can see it tracks the spot price closely. Similarly, if you overlay the API4 one month forward contract price, it correlates well. In short - it suggests to me that they are able to sell into the current export market and are not held back by long term contracts.
Whilst barchart.com is great for API4 and other western contracts, I've been struggling to get regular updates on thermal coal futures for key markets that impact the global seaborne trade (namely China and India).
I managed to find on measure for daily china thermal coal futures here:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/1316/china-thermal-coal-futures
They also have a global view here:
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/39415/global-coal-prices
Thanks for sharing Gubby. The worldbank Sept average for SA coal in Sept looks a bit low to me (whilst Jul and Aug seem consistent with other data sources). Can anyone else confirm?
I estimated the Jul, Aug, and Sept monthly API4 averages as $121, $138, and $164 respectively (based on daily API4 RB 1 month in front contract prices.)