Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I am under constant feeling someone is slowing down the project as much as possible.
I can’t understand
Why OEM are not fighting to put their hands in the most strategical and biggest deposit in europe with great CO2 credential
Why the latest drilling result have not been released yet
Why an updated PFS is not released with the 50 kpta and up to date lithium and tin rice as suggested by KC many times on interview
These calculation are based on 25 ktpa .. we all know we will go to 50 kpta on DFS or even earlier and 150 ktpa is a normal developpement for 2025-2030.
The tin credit cannot be given to the further production and we can expect some increase of the capex … so we cannot multiply potential NPV by 2 or 6 this meaningless.
Regarding the NPV,
On the PFS we had 25,267 tpa at 12,000 $ with an opex of 3,435 $
So an Ebitda (cash flow before financing) of (12,000 - 3,435) x 25,267 = 216 m$/a
With a decrease of opex to 2,860 $/t while the Lithium price increase from $12,000 PFS to 16,500 $ spot price.
Revised Ebitda is (16,500-2,860) x 25,267 = 344 m$ (+ 59 %).
-> Revised NPV by 59 % from 1,1 B$ to 1.75 B$
Are current market value is around 224 m$ (190 m stock x 1,18 USD) around 13 % revised NPV
Here is my view on the new cost of production with credit
On the PFS Tin was at 22.5k$/t and the operating cost was going from 4,876 $ to 3,435 $ so a decrease of 1,441 $ In the tin worth 32k (+40 %ish) then the credit should rise by 40%ish to 2,017 $/t
Then the new operating cost should be around 2,859 $/t
More over the capex to mine tin is the same, so an increase of price of 10 % leads to an even bigger increase of credit
The metal in the mine is worth 100 billions on market price.and we know lithium and tin are in strong demand low offer.
So selling a 49 % stake in a 100 billions potential turnover and at least 30 billons potential EBITDA for 400/500 millions based on 2x spot price will be a very bad investment.
@mktv
On CEZ Q1 conf call, they clearly state that they intend to build one or 2 giga in czech republic and the lithium to be sourced form cinovec. It is written black on white on their presentation for Q1 conf call.
Of course we don’t know how many ktpa and at what price.
The good thing is they would like to JV with Skoda .. so if they share roughtly the same stake on both project, there is no reason not to buy the Lithium at fastmarket price.
But They need to sign with Skoda before to sign with Geomet.
Now the US listing being put forward is a good thing as well, maybe an hint to a Tesla offtake that would be way more visible than a CEZ offtake.
We also wait for a doubling of capacity, result from drilling, result on EPA, confirmation of permit and finaly DFS for Q1 2022
A lot of news on the pipeline, and the SP is only quite well despite any official news.
Sorry @Malik, At current share price, EMH worth 200 m$ which south of 20 % of the NPV.
And the current NPV for EMH is undervalued with hydroxyde 11k on PFS against 15 k spot and tin price 22.5 k PFS against 31.2 k spot.
So I would say currently EMH is valued at +/- 15 % of it’s NPV
@finger. I am very happy to grant you an extension until July 31st.
If we still miss, this one, then as soon as our price reflect the fair value of this stock, we will organize a gathering of this board to celebrate.
Every single day, we have report from media, including main stream media (BBC reuters) point out at the supply crush for batterie raw material, project of giga in europe and/or in Check Rep, NorthVolt Expansion, VW looking to secure lithium (Reuters) … and all those junior are going down !!!
I really don’t understand hox it is possible with this level of public media information.
The way I understand it a 60 GWh gigafactory needs 50 ktpa of Lithium.
So Northwolt alone need 50 ktpa lithium when ramped
Skoda/CEZ giga would as well need 50 kpta
And Tesla aims to 100 GWh at Berlin another 80 ktpa
These 3 giga together need more lithium than EMH can produc on the most rosy scenario …
Mid Term target (2027-2030) could be 150 ktpa of Hydroxyde … so another x 2.5 minimum on NPV -> over 6 B USD
Factor hydroxyde price over 20 k … and there is long term room for a 10 B USD valuation.
Closing price ( 0.72 gbp = 1,02 USD) x 190 m (fully diluted share) = +/- 200 m Market Cap
Short term (18 months) potential : x 7.5 to x 12 on current price
Long Term potential ( 5 years) : x 20 to x 30
Shall I keep my share ???
The PFS NPV is 1,1 b USD. Since them the tin price as gone from 21,5 kUSD to 33.5 kUSD/t and Hydroxyde from 12 k USD/t to 14 kUSD/T.
Applying those figure to the PFS (25 ktpa of hydroxyde) give a 1.5 B USD NPV.
You can still double the production for around 1.7 time this NPV (more CAPEX)