We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Hydrogen is a dead technic.
- To produce 1 kW with liquid hydrogen, you need to put 3.5 kW power in Electrolysis
- Hydrogen will not be sent on existing pipeline because it is way smaller than natural gaz and will leak on junction… you need to create from scratch a all new infrastructure (gaz station, network, …)
- Hydrogène could have niche market in plane or Cargo .. not sure depending on how fast battery get more dense and cost less but will not make it to car, bus, trucks
- This move from Toyota … is just a smoke to hide Toyota is very late to the electric party and will probably be the first OEM to get bankrupt from rEVolution.
Assuming 1.2B USD for the 50 kpta Capex (which is 20 % more than RK Equity estimate to provide for unexpected increase of cost or extra construction cost)
100 m USD grant form EIT/EBA
120 m USD from european recovery plan marked on Babis 10 item plan (but babis is old story now)
840 m USD soft loan (70 %)
Balance is 140 m USD to share between CEZ and us.
So 60 m share around current level. This number was initialy suggested by Rodney Cooper (RK equity report)
But should Offtakes be signed before construction with partial prepayment and we could have no more cash to put in.
Therefore my valuation is conservative :
- for the 60 m share/ 70 m USD cap raise (ie 1.15 USD/ share) that might not be necessary
- for the 2024 25 ktpa fair price at 70 % NPV
- for the 2024 50 ktpa fair price at 1.8 time the 25 ktpa fair price
- for the 2028 150 ktpa 2.5 times the 50 ktpa fair price
Here is my valuation Model for EMH
As of 18th October 2021
NPV on PFS : 1.1 B USD, EMH share 49 % = EMH/NPV 539 m USD
Current Fully Diluted Market Cap : 190 m x 0.745 GBP = 194.4 mUSD = 36 % of EMH/NPV
Current value : Hydroxide @ 24 USD/kg, Tin @ 39 USD/kg
PFS value : production : 25,267 tpa, Hydroxide @ 12 USD/kg, Tin @ 22.5 USD/kg
Tin credit :
on PFS : 1,441 USD/t LCE, Tin price + 73 % since PFS -> updated tin credit : 1,441 + 73 % = 2,493 USD/t LCE
Opex before tin credit on PFS : 4,876 USD/t, with updated tin credit : updated OPEX 2,383 USD/t
Updated Ebitda
=> updated Hydroxide price - updated OPEX => 24,000 - 2,383 = 21,617 USD/t
Production 25,267 tpa => 25,267 x 21,617 = Updated Ebitda 546 mUSD
Ebitda on PFS : 216 mUSD -> updated Ebitda = PFS Ebitda x 2.53
=> Updated NPV = PFS NPV x 2.53 = 2.78B USD
EMH/NPV = 49 % x 2.78B USD = 1.36B USD
Should we consider emission of 60 m new share for capex partial financing -> 190 m -> 250 m shares fully diluted
Start of production scheduled 2024
Fair Value 2024 25 ktpa = 70 % EMH/NPV = 952 m USD / 250 m share = 3.81 USD = 2.77 GBP
Fair Value 2024 50 ktpa -> 5 GBP (x 1.8 25 ktpa NPV for additional capex and additional risk)
Fair Value 2028 150 ktpa -> 12 GBP (x 2,5 50 ktps NPV for futher risks)
I totally agree with you observer, sid, finger.
As I understand it $VUL will deliver by 2025 part of the supply needed by umicore. 28 to 42 kt over 5 y. Which is 5.6 to 8.4 ktpa on average.
Here is last report from wise-Owl
https://wise-owl.com/commentaries/emh-upgrades-its-eu-lithium-resource-as-lithium-prices-continue-to-soar/?utm_campaign=EMH-R05&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social
Here is an article I would love to see for EMH but it is for Rock Tech.
It is a real challenger to get offtake agreement from Tesla.
EMH should be way more vocal for their convertion facility avec ESG credential … because Rock Tech is sourcing from canada (even if they hope to recycle 50 by 2030)
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-europe-largest-lithium-plant-giga-berlin/
Shall I recall the sketic that Lithium price is more than twice the PFS, Tin price is 50 % more. KC has stated multiple time they will evaluate doubling the initial production which could lead to an NPV increase 4 time ?
One good information that could be made public anytime soon (end of Q3 2021 on timeline) is the life cycle assesment. This will confirm the good esg credential for EMH. This will atrrack ESG theme funds.
Tesla and northvolt as well as VW have to explain where they get their battery raw material from.
There is also a possibility that the tcheck coalition are more honnest fellow and will move on this project faster than babis-always-on-delay .. which could attrack attention on Cinovec.
And the EBA sarm our EIT could give some information on the financing
There are still some good news possible before DFS, EIA, funding secure, permit
In europe, each country has a dedicated recovery fund that need’s to ush for green transition.
Each country provide project they will support with the european fund and it is exactly what Chech Gov did with the 11 selected project.
- Including 1.25 B check Crown ($60m) for giga
- another 1.25 B check crown for Geomet.
This money has clearly been traced to geomet and Cez. It still needs to be passed by authorities but it is in the pipeline.
Finger, you forget last week article about 1.25 B czech croawn (60 m) from the European recovery fund.
It is not linked to the European battery Alliance grant and soft loan.
So together with offtake prepayment there is plenty of potential cash available.