Member Info for ArbInv

See here for write yp and analysis.... https://substack.com/@thepredictableyieldengine/note/c-177918729?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=hbmf

Not everything needs to shoot the lights out. Some you just tuck away and let compounding work its magic. No need to check this very often just let its inflation linked assets grow overtime. If it double in five years I am happy!

With much else at all time highs this becomes a lot more appealing. For sure I would not have held this sine 2020 but looking forward over next five years IMHO I think this is one which through a mix of dividends, reduction in discount and a little capital appreciation has potential to double (ie average 14% pa). This is my goal.

Been spending time digging into the UK infrastructure space where discounts have blown out to levels we haven’t seen in years.

HICL Infrastructure stood out with a 7% covered yield, trading roughly 23% below NAV, and using disposal proceeds to buy back its own shares at those levels. It’s one of the few with the scale and liquidity to manage through rate volatility instead of being forced into mergers or wind-downs.

What’s interesting is how that 23% discount acts like a second dividend if sentiment normalizes AND you’re getting paid to wait.

Full deep dive here: https://predictableyieldengine.substack.com/p/hicl-infrastructure-7-yield-at-a

Just finished a deeper look at Volta Finance (VTA) and thought I’d share a few highlights for anyone following the name. It’s currently yielding around 9%, with 2.6x dividend coverage and still trading at roughly an 8% discount to NAV. The portfolio is almost entirely CLO debt and equity, managed by AXA IM, and continues to throw off strong cashflows even in tougher market conditions.

https://predictableyieldengine.substack.com/p/volta-finance-a-9-yielding-clo-the

I did a deep dive analysis on PHP a few weeks back and meant to share. Let me know where you sit right now. I am adding:

https://predictableyieldengine.substack.com/p/primary-health-properties-an-8-nhs

I have been tracking this one for a while along with one of its sister funds (which I might write about another time). It offers specialist exposure to European ABS, a built-in NAV crystallisation option next year, and a payout north of 11%. Most investors have never even heard of it, which is exactly why it deserves a closer look. https://open.substack.com/pub/predictableyieldengine/p/twentyfour-income-fund-london-listed

Hi -- can anyone recommend a platform which will allow me to trade from either UK or USA stocks listed on New Zealand Stock Exchange?

Any thoughts on how the likely changes in health policy following the likely win later today by Labour. I presume growth in health expenditures and commitments on new targets should help but unclear what exactly the role of private sector might be in expansion in primary care. The Blair years were generally good for PHP with PFI being ramped up but this time around I am less certain. I would have expected to see some analyst work on this but nothing I can find so far?

Held this one for quite a while but the fees / charges are ridiculous in 2024. Expecting another activist play here as they will no doubt need to merge or slash fees. Great thesis and I like the holdings but simply charge way too much. They need to get this below 1% and ideally half that.

even in an industry littered with shysters, liars and bull****ters this crew stand continuously take things to new depths. betts family need to be removed along with coo and cfo.

In this whole farce there is only one thing I am sure of and that is the leadership of HUM are a bunch of clowns. From one slip up to the next. Board needs to take control and replace. The level of value destruction is criminal. Problem is really no serious institutional shareholders left. Total joke of a company.

the issue is that 0.61% of a big number is a big number. $10.7mm paid for such **** poor performance in 2023. they should receive no more than the cheapest fee of the cheapest tracker etfs ie circa ~0.01% as their team not only added zero value they actually lost us a lot of money relative to a tracker.

i cannot be in london on that date but i am hoping someone is going to properly roast nick train. he has become a multi-millionaire while trotting out excuses year after year for underperformance. if you ever listen to his update videos he literally talks to the listener as if they are in the special needs class in junior school.

"iven the growing number of activists looking at closed-end funds in the uk and us, i am hoping someone comes in to shake up the cozy relationship between lindsell train and frostrow capital. fees keep rolling in regardless of performance, which has been nothing short of appalling in these last few years. the strategy continues to fail, and while part of it is obviously due to the mandate of investing in uk companies/uk market, with the agm coming up in a few weeks, i hope some folks start to light a fire under the ****s of the board and pm team.

arby

As part of the US Debt Ceiling negotiations Sen. Manchin of WV has seemingly gotten the green light for the Mountain Valley Pipeline project. https://www.mountainvalleypipeline.info/

Any ideas if DEC might be a beneficiary of these recent development?

Bloomberg Quick Take Video.... https://twitter.com/bponsot/status/1447892627127476225?s=20

Pleased I had my stop losses in place which took me out of 50% of position at 117. Just bought back in at 1.00 which I am happy about although may well head lower.

Its unclear from the article and company press release if the journalists believe these are bad actors. For sure Rusty et al are 'oil men' and looking to make money on other peoples trash. As they say this side of the pond "where theres muck theres brass".

I have been following this story for a while and slowly accumulating. I think that DEC is probably the best place for these old wells to land and the type of scrutiny which holds the fires to the feet of operators in the oil and gas space is a good thing for investors. I for one want to see renewables replace these old last century relics but in the meantime at least to me it makes sense to not be adding new (fracked) wells and to be getting as much energy out of these old wells as we can to help bridge us to the future.

Currently Avon is my very worst performer in my SIPP down 52%. Always cut my losers but there was something about this one. Never understood why the company does not as a minimum dual list in the US and likely even better just relocate listing to NYSE or NASDAQ. London in 2021 is a poor market for a company like this likely this would provide a positive boost. I am looking at holding this long term as from what I see / hear in the US the company is very highly regarded and they are likely to see some decent growth in their govt contracts in the next few years. '

But interested to hear from folks who are cutting their losses and running.

I am sitting on some substantial gains on my BHP holdings. If the delisting goes ahead will I be a forced seller and have to close out my position. My broker does not support Aussie markets. I am sure that all those holdings in SIPPs will also be forced to sell??

Thanks

Arb

Not quite sure what Rusty is alluding to here in relation to "the challenging lending environment". Maybe its only in sub-investment grade debt in O&G companies but the last thing this environment can be called is challenging when it comes to financing...!

Commenting on the enlarged Credit Facility, CEO Rusty Hutson, Jr. said:

"I would like to express my gratitude to our banking group for their continued support of Diversified's ambitious growth vision. We are very pleased with the significant increase to our Credit Facility amidst a challenging lending environment, and believe it reflects the enlarged bank syndicate's affirmation of the quality and strong free cash generation of our legacy and recently acquired assets. We are thrilled to welcome several leading financial institutions to the family of world-class banks participating in our facility, and we look forward to further advancing our lending relationships as we capitalize on the many consolidation and growth opportunities in the market and that others present to us."