reading the future12 Aug 2020 13:25
This is my reading of what is going on on both sides: finance and Mali politics in the covid 19 era.
FS vs DFS: as the mining plant changed size and budget, borrowing money from banks become obvious, hence the need for DFS.
BA and SC and Mali gov are all happy with FS as it is so ML will be granted in time. DFS is likely to be brought to the front as talks for finance with banks took place. At the original plan, both BA and SC where sure they can provide finance without the help of banks, as the original plant was small. Given the conservative nature of BA, the speeding tickets and the will of SC to keep the competition off, I guess DFS will be more fare to shareholders in general, it will match or exceed FS value.
DFS will be produced by external party to give independent view of the situation. Extra waiting time may rattle BA financial plans, so better be cautious about spending on gold at the moment.
Mali politics and possible outcome:
Malians being watching how politics unfold in their northern neighbours for a while now and decided to give it a go themselves. what are their chances of change.
1) Algeria, strong army and economy and not willing to repeat the 10 years civil war, helped to change the gov by the help of the army peacefully. The prison population is still growing there by big pockets and despots.
2) Lebanon burning out, they have no strong army or economy and the political elite are holding power through sectarian divide.
Mali has no strong army or economy, the army is barely covering the southern part of the country. This is why the presidents of west African nations advised to keep the gov as is and proceed to some changes. The model in Mali is closer to that of Lebanon but better still if they adopt the Tunisian model "take what is on offer and ask for more, Progressive pressure". That is if they don't go to the Libyan experience.