Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Maybe that was what he was told by Umesh Modi shychap, after all didn't Manprit attend a sales person award ceremony in Dec 24? Look, I strongly suspect the Company knew a miss was likely from Umesh Modi but had not had it confirmed. TW's main complaint centres around a SP of 17p that the Superdrug Fundraise was done at "based on a false revenue picture" inferring it would have been lower if the miss was revealed.

So if SA had been totally transparent and said to the Investors look we are unlikely to get anywhere near the Dermatonic's part of the forecast based on receipts so far from Umesh Modi but that the forecast profit 0t £2.9M has not been affected at all because of better than expected royalties from Croda, I would of anticipated the sp would have been higher than 17p not lower on that news at the time

Shychap, Umesh Modi manufacture the Dermatonics product under license themselves so wont be placing orders on SBTX but providing a cut of any sales. Now if, and I stress it is an If, they failed to notify SBTX of the scale of the likely miss until year end then the Company would have been in the dark re actual revenues albeit they would certainly have suspected a big miss was looming but had not had it confirmed.

Net, today's selling can be attributed to TW;

"I have now written to both regulators demanding a full enquiry into Stuart Ashman and Skin biotherapeutics (SBTX) as , at the very least , they have broken AIM Rule 10 at worse they have done a placing at a false price because of non disclosure to the wider market of adverse trading performance. In the wake of December 5 prelims there now needs to be a full formal enquiry"

If there is a case to answer then the FCA may choose to impose a substantial fine on BOTH the Company and Directors so hope my theory regarding the late notification of actual revenues from Umesh Modi proves correct. Regarding the fundraise the gross Profit forecast at the time was £2.9M and they delivered £2.9M and the fact that was achieved by a greater than expected royalty return than the market expected was actually a huge bonus. Singer in their July Broker Note appear to have put nothing in 2025 for Croda Royalty as they also forecast Gross Profit of £2.9M but against a higher revenue figure of £5.1M hence confirming the Market expected nothing or minimal royalties 2025 so in terms of any deception to investors taking place in the raise you could argue the share price at the time would have been higher than 17p if the extent of the Croda Royalties were known as they deliver 100% margin

Hi Toyin, yes of course. I do not think the near anticipated £800k additional sales from Umesh Modi are missed orders but a huge overstated optimistic forecast from Umesh Modi in the first place that they did not notify they were going to get anywhere near until very late in the reporting cycle. The late orders I suspect purely relate to BTS for the smaller £500k miss which I do expect to be delivered in 2026. I can understand any reluctance to recognise and upgrade on any revised future forecast from Umesh Modi in light of their past predictions

Could ask the same questions of the agitators led by Tom Winnifrith.

The main issue raised by TW in his letter to the regulators surrounds the placing in June and whether the revenue miss was known but not declared by the Company then. One scenario where it may not of been known is:

"Dermatonic's forecast was £2.9M, up £1M on the prior year and the bulk of that uplift was attributed to expected Umesh Modi Sales. In the event total ROW sales were just £144K having been £80K in 2024 prior to the Umesh Modi launch so obviously a big miss and it may well be that SBTX were not told by Umesh Modi by how much they were going to miss forecasts until post the placing. SOH suffered from a similar optimistic forecast from Dr Morepen who's CEO actually went public with his forecasts for Lightlife so we know it wasn't just a delusional figure plucked out of the air by SOH.

Spot on ox, fat fingers on the keyboard

Well what a day yesterday, scan read the SBTX Results made the odd observation and then off for a Breakfast and several beers around Bath with 14 ex work colleagues. Incidentally, Wetherspoons was packed at 10.30am so might be worth buying a few of their shares before the next trading update. Heard a good joke whilst out concerning the Guy that bought his wife a fur coat made with 3,600 hamster skins, then took her to Blackpool and couldn’t get her off the Big Wheel for 2 days.

Regarding Croda sales, in my rush I ignored the impact of rounding on the potential figure; Total Revenue was actually £4,638,147, so deducting £2.2M derma, £1.4M BTS and £0.280M Axis leaves a balance attributed to Zenakine of £754,147 which is nearer £800k.

Toyin, one observation regarding the revenue miss. I have gone back to the 29th July 2024 IM Presentation and it was obvious from the comments there that most of the forecast uplift in Derma Revenues from £1.9M to £2.9M were anticipated Umesh Modi contributions. Looking at the current results geographical breakdown, the ROW figure for 2025 was just £143,957 compared to a pre-Umesh Modi launch in 2024 of £35,363 ROW figure so a big miss and I suspect why SA may have left this years forecast figure unadjusted; i.e. Croda rev offsetting a possible further disappointing year of Umesh Modi sales.

Agree Toyin, markets have got it wrong the potential of Zenakine is huge no doubt MD is rubbing his hands at the prospect of picking up some more cheap shares.

Axis missed revenue forecasts by £120k, Dermatonics by £700k but net £200k with the earnout reversal of £500k, and Dermatonics by £600k based on Manprit's original £5.3M revenue projection.

Yes net, excellent seeing it's not even in the shops yet

Net, total Rev = £4.6M

Axis = £0.280k

Dermatonics = £2.2M

BTS = £1.4M

Balance = £0.7M = Zenakine Royalties

Croda revenues of £0.7M will do for me, Axis, Dermatonics and BTS all missed forecasts and the earn out of £500k was not paid (shown as a £500k reversal)

Would be good to get everything aligned. But with regards Companies House, Manprit's prime Board role was CFO hence registered as that only despite acting as Secretary, whilst Emily's non-board CFO role leaves just the Secretarial role for registration I would suggest

Toyin if you bother to read the RNS appointment properly you will realise Emily acts as the Group's Finance Director in a non-board capacity whilst she acts as Secretary for the Board

Emily will be dual hatted just as Manprit was; check the sign-off on last years AGM Notification

https://www.skinbiotherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/269664-SkinBio-AGM-2024-Chairmans-Letter-and-Notice-of-AGM-WEB.pdf

Shychap, you miss the point. There would be very little appetite to watch a AGM without a presentation of the results and just consisting of a series of votes for the Agenda items so it would need to change to a longer format to combine the two

Jansy, I suspect it is permanent as Cross never release specific financial forecasts or data for individual ingredients. That said it does not stop SA releasing combined group forecasts going forward and to be fair that would do me.

Toyin " My only issue with the NDA is simple, it cannot stop you abiding by rules and regulations on revenues" 100% agree and what's more the Auditors will not sign off on Accounts that do not abide by the regulations so what we will all see in the imminent Audited Accounts will be a factual account of the revenues received and very much like the Opti Accounts, if one Customer is responsible for a significant element of those Accounts, then they do not have to be named but a statement that "One Customer Accounted for X" will need to be included.

Shychap, I suspect companies that arrange hybrid AGMs elect to integrate their presentations within their AGM rather than have separate presentations via Investor Meets but by all means pursue a change to SBTX articles to permit electronic participation in future years so that a combined AGM/Presentation takes place instead

Toyin I didn't say it was acceptable, just that if you don't trust a person to give you a truthful answer the forum is irrelevant.