The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@Greengrass and Lowpay Agreed on both points. The best thing BH could do is issue a Mill progress update with some photographs so PIs at least feel involved and valued ... lack of information just gives space to those that just play on fear
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@Bebeto You really should read all of my response where I clearly say what I think and why rather than attribute things to me that I did not say such as "You seem to think non compliance isn't the Company's fault."
I cited your prior comment and agreed with you by clearly stated in my post "I do agree that "The company would need to take decisive actions to address its ongoing compliance issues, rectify the reasons for the delayed financial reports, and demonstrate a clear commitment to timely and accurate financial reporting.". "
For clarity you initially did NOT say that you had asked the FCA you just asserted a position WITHOUT saying this hence my deliberately open question about how you had arrived at this view.
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@Bebeto You are posting on a public BB making an assertion about how the FCA works and how it may view GCATs actions/inactions ... I was asking what the basis for your assertions were, so I see no reason why I should have to guess these, ask the FCA what I think you meant in order to understand if I agree with you or not.
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@Bebeto I am interested in your assertions around the FCAs future treatment of GCAT in light of the 2 suspensions for failure to post timely financial reports.
On what basis do you believe that "Such a situation would significantly impact the FCA's assessment of the company's ability to adhere to regulatory requirements and maintain transparency." and "The FCA would likely have even greater concerns about the company's compliance record and its ability to meet its disclosure obligations. Approving a new prospectus for share issuance under these circumstances would be highly challenging." ?
I do agree that "The company would need to take decisive actions to address its ongoing compliance issues, rectify the reasons for the delayed financial reports, and demonstrate a clear commitment to timely and accurate financial reporting.". However, I note that RM has already said in the recent StockBox interview that they do not have a CFO and separately that that they have hired external consultants to address these shortcomings.
I think everyone on this BB can agree that the current situation following withdrawal of OCIM funding last January has been a s***show, but in hindsight I am not sure how RM could have anticipated the event or done much more to ensure that GCAT remains a "going concern" until further funding via Royalty stream agreement and/or TZ JV has been secured.
IMHO RM has and is doing what he can in clearly challenging circumstances ...
> Appointment of chairman to deal with regulatory and governance issues
> Progressing issue of Prospectus with FCA
> paying down bulk of Mill End facility
> Appointment of external consultants to complete overdue audit
> completion of Stage 1 Mine Plan to underpin primary funding for Kilimapesa mine
> progression of DD for primary non-dilutionary funding via Royalty stream
> progression of DD for JV on TZ Nyakafuru project ... expect it will be an earn-in model to DFS or even mine build?
> putting Kilimapesa underground mine on C&M and reducing running costs
> Running just Plant 1& 3 plus mining shallow high grade ore from new Kili vein to keep costs low
I guess we will find out more when the suspension is lifted
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@Folio Heap Leach pads 1-3 are 7.5kt each for a total 22.5kt and HL pad #4 is the first Commercial pad which was planned to be 120kt, but scaling it from pad 1-3 plans & photos I suspect that it is actually 60kt but has not yet been commissioned.
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@jaac Good spot and excellent news
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@Bebeto Thanks very useful but typical company structuring of holding companies (name gives it away) and their operating subsidiaries particularly when they hold have multi-jurisdictional operations with subsidiaries operating in different country typically with different legal and tax frameworks.
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@1digger most of the prior free cashflow discussions on this BB were focused on the previously held Kalaba existing small scale plant & mining area that has now been carved out of the current licences and not the Cheyeza area that AA now seems to be targeting.
There is nothing to say that AA will not go for early cashflow from a smaller scale project, but given that there is relatively little drilling done at scale and depth this seems unlikely as they would want to avoid placing a camp, process plant and/or tailings and waste over an area that they may later find holds substantial resources.
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@Travelcard Ask yourself the very simple question ,,, would ARC have been able to fund $74m of exploration costs to retain a 100% ownership of the asset, complete necessary DFS et al and then be able to build a mine?
Even if possible the dilution would have been eye-watering! Instead ARC have negotiated a deal where they get paid $14.5m over 3 years and retain their 66% share of 30% of the asset via Unico and take no risk and pay no costs until AA have finished. The fact that as an eventual 30% owner Unico retains 2 directors out of 5 is a good thing.
Nobody can disagree that Greatland's JV was outstanding for GGPs shareholders and yet I do not believe it was as generous as ARC's current JV with AA.
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@Bebeto Yes we already know that hence the Royalty based primary $7.5m funding discussions (DD underway hence recent Stage 1 Mine Plan), the farming out of the TZ Nyakafuru project to a JV, putting Kili underground on C&M, high-grading the recent found Kili shallow, high-grade zone and why the SP has been hit so hard.
For balance the RNs then goes on to say "The Company has since raised further funds and taken on further consultants to assist the Company to meet its reporting obligations going forward."
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LOL I don't think TW does accounts as a historic loss actually has value in current and future years as that loss gets carried forward and set against any trading profits thus reducing in-year tax liabilities until such time as the loss gets "used up" or can be carried forward no more.
Anyone would think that he was trying to imply that these historic losses have to be paid off in some way or make a current operation somehow insolvent when in fact they actually do the opposite as companies often buy loss making enterprises to offset profits elsewhere!
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@peggy LOL relentlessly optimistic as normal I see
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@Caddy Market probably wants to know about ...
> confirmed $cash payment from AA
> what the AA exploration programme looks like & timescales
> when and how many AA drills are arriving and where deploying first
> What is ARC going to do next with its $cash?
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@Jedster Sadly CCZ seems to follow a repeating pattern of ramp, raise, do some work, find very little, buy something else, wash and repeat ... having been on board and watching this pattern repeat 3 or 4 times since it launched on AIM with much promise.
Cangai has been owned by CCZ throughout this period and despite its JORC and clear promise nothing has been done to advance it and little or no talk of a JV until now ... why is that?
The Mt ISA area licences have been the focus of lots of exploration mainly at the Big One which came up with good grades but little volume so only suitable for mining if something else of size could be found elsewhere so onto the next big thing at Arya and virtual silence before we pivot again, repeat with possible JV elsewhere and now a strategic review and possible asset sale.
I don't normally comment on BBs that I am not invested in but I kick myself hard for staying invested as long as I did. I really do wish LTH luck with this one and hope it comes good, but I will be staying out unless something substantive changes.
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@Bebeto I think you are deliberately choosing not to understand that the Stage 1 Mine Plan analysis is a conservative estimate of what the funding when deployed will achieve so that the funders have some comfort that the plant will AT LEAST produce the amount of gold and revenue indicated and this is used to underpin their payment to GCAT under the Royalty deal.
Anyone paying attention knows that:
> plan assumes $1,700 POG when comfortably above recent $1,820 low and now pushing ATH circa $2,000
> Plant 1&2 Mill/IL @75% recovery - GCAT themselves have delivered 92% before upgrades
> Plant 3&4 Heap Leach @50% recovery - Pilot produced 53% in less than 3 weeks, cook cycle likely 2-3 months when plant 4 gets going as per my posted calcs and RM Stockbox interview. I expect minimum 60% HL recovery
Run the calculations for yourself and with the same throughput quoted you will get over 2koz/month recovered once the plant has been tweaked and %recoveries increased
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Yep spot on JC you beat me to it!
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My take on Interview Https://youtu.be/1PHnZQ-s2Pc?si=sj3yH9OTHrZKBei-
CGAT focused on:
> Anchor Funding = Royalty non-dilutative deal $7.5m from Feb/Mar-23 term sheet signed
> Additional funding = relies on Anchor funding being in place
> Kili mine expansion with OCIM was $15.5m now costed at $10.5m and likely lower so additional funding "gap" narrowing
> Q3 Operational update by end Oct-23
> Funding Timeline ... Mine plan done & feeds into updated financial model for securing Royalty funding & associated Legal work with any conditions precedent to close deal in Q1 2024
> Heap Leach Pilot plants 1, 2 & 3 (22.5kt capacity) still in operation
> Heap Leach Pad 4 (upto 120kt) commercial HL still in construction ... possible camera install? and other pads to follow?
> Annual Report delay & suspension ... how & why? Purely admin delay on accounts as only 3 directors focused on mine running, FCA prospectus & funding WIP, Nyakafuru JV with no CFO. Adamant not a governance issue & FCA advised suspension in advance which RM said was very unusual!
> Prior suspension 3 days ... RM basically trashed previous FCO and "Paul" did rescue job with 18m of history to resolve
> Why RM £40k loan? Could not issue prospectus to raise funds as had unaudited financials as was an RTO, but could not proceed despite £20m MCap so took $1.5m short-term Mill End facility in order to complete audit and close OCIM funding. Kilimapesa operation has now repaid Mill End facility & £40k has contributed to paying these funding costs
> Mill End shares gone? Confirmed have sold down shares
> Tanzanian mining licence and progress - application licence is in and JV discussions progressing but depends on licence
> Vim Rutha & world class? Systematic exploration needed in Kenyan greenstone belt as extension of TZ deposits. No exploration work since Aug/Sept-22
> Drilling rigs at Kilimapesa hill first and VM after as 3-5 years worth of work
> When 24koz target? Funding dependent to expand Kili plat & expect 6m build ... funding Q1 2024 then 6m build
> Role of Simon Renick? Corporate Governance, mining plan & prospectus focused then strategy focused
> Mill End settlement - shares and cash payment due to close once prospectus issued
> New CFO & NEDs due? Looking at candidates and likely resolved in parallel to funding as everything scales up
Hopefully captured main points
> Heap Leach recovery rates? Cook cycle & time curve dependent but expecting 45-50 day cycle. Current pilot plants limited space to operate
> Funding dependent on Phase 1 Mine Plan only - MRE update part of phase 2 report increase I&M confidence & LoM
> Target 16koz gap to 24koz - Mine Plan states 75% recovery but 90%+ expected which will lift to 24koz with new plant crusher, CIL & HL capacity upgrades
> 650 employees? operation went onto care & maintenance, closed underground and scale back employment
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RNS at 10:41 .... Conditions precedent satisfied, Drilling underway. Minster announcement and 1st $3.5m cash payment to ARC yet to be announced
RNS May-22 ... Initial terms below:
The key commercial terms of the Joint Venture that have been agreed in principle in the Agreement are as follows:
- Upon signing of the Joint Venture Documents ("Effective Date"), a Joint Venture vehicle will be formed with initial ownership interests by Anglo American and Arc of 70% and 30%, respectively ("Initial Ownership Interests");:
§ USD 3,500,000 upon signing of the Joint Venture Documents ("Effective Date");
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Agreement with Anglo American
Arc Minerals is pleased to announce that the substantive regulatory conditions precedent with regards to its Joint Venture Agreement with a subsidiary of Anglo American plc ("Anglo American") as previously announced (the "JVA") have been satisfied.
Arc further announces that the parties have completed the subscription of shares in the joint venture company resulting in a 70% interest having been acquired by Anglo American and a 30% interest having been acquired by Unico Minerals Ltd, a 67% subsidiary of Arc Minerals Ltd.
In addition, Arc is pleased to confirm that drilling at one of the key joint venture licences has commenced.
Nick von Schirnding, Executive Chairman of Arc said "This marks a major turning point for Arc and our shareholders. I am delighted that we have now satisfied the substantive regulatory conditions precedent to completing the JVA and that the joint venture drilling campaign led by our partners, Anglo American, has commenced.
We recognise that President Hakainde Hichilema's government has prioritised additional foreign and local investment into the mining sector and it is with a sense of excitement that we can start the next phase of the exploration program. I would like to extend my appreciation and thanks to the administration and various government agencies of the Republic of Zambia who have been working tirelessly to ensure the required regulatory approvals were obtained."
Statement by the Minister of Mines and Minerals Development, Hon. Paul Kabuswe ... see RNS
@JC Agreed ... I can see lots of upside but still lots of risks to be addressed and worked through not least of which is rebuilding some investor trust!
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For me the next most important Study output is the MRE as this hasn't materially changed despite considerable exploration and drills results especially Vim Rutha and Kili high grade zone so some proper figures would be very useful
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