RE: Results next week31 Mar 2021 13:34
I spotted the massive trades yesterday but didn't get time to write here. Unsurprised to find an RNS this morning - Arbuthnot selling. Not sure if this accounts for all the big trades. Wondering who is on the other side. Googling history Arbuthnot had stated plans (11th April 2019) to sell down from 8.8% to 3.1%, partly to reduce regulatory capital burden of stake. I don't know if they accomplished this at the time (sorry not got time to go through old RNS's), but if they did they obviously bought back in size and maybe did very well in the trade. Obviously some risk of further selling (they are now at 5.7%).
On results - ST are flagging that this year's growth will (obviously) feed only fully into next year's NII (average balances), while costs will jump. Presumably fees will also recover. Overall operating profits may not grow in 2021. They also flag possible further Covid bad debt provisions, but a) I am confident these will be less than 2020 and b) actually they may already be over-provisioned already and are trying to be cautious. In any event, 2022 should see operating profit growth AND normalised provisions so 200p eps achievable.
My position is getting disproportionately large but I hate to trade given massive spread and among largest upsides in bank sector (now that clearers and Virgin have recovered). Set an alert at 1300p. Knowing my luck they will find a fraud and price will halve.