Member Info for Andii

The operating margin is likely at or below 50%. They made £3.146m

So £1.5m gross profit. Out of that comes admin expenses which are likely a bit bigger than last year due to growth so say £1.2m. Lower grades means more legwork for the same output but to.kitigste this, they now operate pre-concentrate units. The pre-concentrate units are now the bottle-neck.

Due to customer delays in making payments, they likely can't afford new pre-concentrate units right now. I guess they spent a small amount on Montepuez studies also.

Without extra debt funding we ramp up production but due to reduced head grades, maximum production capacity will likely not exceed 20ktpa. This bottle neck is at the pre-concentrate units, not the processing plant. Training we are told is ongoing so perhaps they can squeeze more out of the resources they have.

For me, an ideal situation would be a nice big debt package to open up production at Madagascar to 36ktpa AND to continue building Montepuez in Mozambique. Hopefully Shishir can give us an update on the economics of Montepuez without having to invest too much more on those studies. He has the experience and the staff to complete this in-house.

I feel that now is the time to expand as rapidly as possible so that by the next graphite super-cycle, we have customers already pre-qualified ready to take on the extra production volumes the company have in mind for the futire.

The one caveat is the CLN repayments, is there a payment due and if so, how much? There was something mentioned about a delayed repayment schedule in the FY results but there was also a few comments made either here or on telegram about a missed payment.

There's no evidence they are burning cash. Surely debt financing is to build more pre concentrate units and to increase plant design beyond 30ktpa? Maybe to even build Montepuez in Mozambique

Https://www.asianmetal.com/Graphite/

Flake graphite +195 (natural flake graphite medium size and above, 95% purity) up 0.35% in the past 180 days

Flake graphite +895 (natural flake graphite large size and above, 95% purity) down 2.75% in the past 180 days

30% of the Madagascar graphite is large and 50% is jumbo.

From Syrah resources message board regarding the Q3 investor call;

"BMI are reporting natural graphite prices bounced in late September due to demand increases so keep an eye out for any confirmation from Fastmarkets (usually in an article about graphite) and Asian Metal."

Https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/

Quite easy to search for vatomina and sahamamy projects in Madagascar.

Vatomina looks like it is progressing the fastest in the past 3 months. The ariel footprint at both locations have grown significantly in the past 6 months.

The prepayment discount is only on 15% of 6 months worth of production. The other 85% will be at spot prices, market rate which according to Asian metals, our large and jumbo flake prices are down less than 5% in the last 180 days.

From the prepayment RNS

"These orders represent c.15% of the quantum of sales the Company expects to make over the six-month period.

· A discount of between 7 - 15% has been applied to the price in return for the pre-payments and which also reflects recent market price softening."

Regarding the tax rebate, this was one of the questions asked at the 1:1 q&a, here was the response

"VAT receivables - election year in Mozambique means it’s harder to get much out of the government but that the money will eventually come, and they are working closely with the government to that end."

Here are some calculations to do;

2023 total production 4,770MT

2023 total Cost per MT of Production £321

Average sales price per MT $875 / £726

1H of 2023 total production 1,731MT

1H total cost per MT of production £454

Average sales price per MT US$833 / £689

This puts the Average selling price per MT in the second half of FY 2023 around $940/T and the Average cost down around $300/T with costs trending down every 6 months

Syrah resources flake sizes are as follows;

5% jumbo

7.5% large

7.5% medium

80% small

Tirupati flake size

50% jumbo

30% large

20% fine

Tirupati operational update April 2023

"Targeting c.10% uplift in basket price realisation from Madagascan production to between US$910 - US$935 per metric tonne in the fiscal year to March 2024."

2023 full year results, average selling price per MT $875 / (£726)

^The above was the average for the full year. It was lower for the first half and higher in the second half.

If they were aiming for $910 but prices have slumped by 5-15% then I'm guessing they are selling for $800 or above. The prices of large and jumbo have only fallen 2 to 5% in the last 180 days according to asian metals graphite data

3 months after the end of September so likely sometime in December.

Before this, expecting a operational update before the AGM next week

*4 x the volume sold vs Tirupati's forecast production target sometime this quarter.

Much of that 27kt volume @syrah was from their stockpile. This was also a good quarter for them, they made a gross profit. See their historical numbers here

https://ibb.co/T2G1JrF

Actually TGR achieved costs around $300/t for the second half of last year and considering they only brought their second plant online in the second last month of the FY, I'm really looking forward to the interm results to see what the production costs and gross margins are april-september.

Syrah sold 27kt in Q3 for $528/t costing $484/t

Total gross profit = $1.18m

Tirupati aiming for 2000t a month in the current quarter = 6000t a quarter for $800/t (10% reduction vs last years price) costing $400/t (most likely less than this due to improved efficiencies thanks to pre concentrate units)

400x6000= $2.4m

TGR soon to be making more cash than Syrah resources.

Their market cap is 10x ours

We are now so far into Q3, I wonder how far off they are from there 2000t a month in Q3 target.

Not bad considering that will be 6000t a quarter and syrah just produced 18,000t last quarter (at higher cost and lower basket price)

BAT minerals, our seller released news today. They are acquiring a new gold asset for shares. They also have $1.2m cash (not sure if that is US or AUD)

Their share price is up 50%. Good news for the next tranche of TGR shares we give them, hopefully their share price recovers and they don't need to sell any.

Forget the last few lines after

today 281k

On 3rd October we had the announcement that BAT had 1618944 shares left.

4thoctober 606k buys vs 525k sells

5thoctober 687k buys vs 360k sells

6th October 246k buys vs 18k sells

9th October 28k buys vs 72k sells

10th October 87k buys 217k sells 25k unknown

11th October 221k buys vs 259k sells

12th October 250k buys vs 117k sells 3k unknown

13th October 295k buys vs 111k sells 60k unknown

Today 281kbuys vs 228k sells

295 111

250 117

221,259

87. 217

27

Wondering how we would score today vs April when this report was made

http://www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/tirupati-graphite-valuation-analysis-05.04.2023-5.pdf

The RSI looks to be turning. The Stochi RSI has already turned.

https://twitter.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1713822481973215401?t=pOT2-ft3QmT3KsvjJC-hlA&s=19

I notice that back in April the same setup appeared before news and we jumped up from 26p to 35p

Zak Mirr thinks 21p by the end of October

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1ZkKzjDYqrqKv?t=Loj0uMIr3CqOp6huEC8rCQ&s=09

Dummy quotes,

16.4p to buy 10k shares, 16.7p to buy 100k shares, 18.5p to buy 500k shares.

Https://thebusinessmagazine.co.uk/companies/cheltenham-graphene-manufacturer-secures-1-95-million-mod-contract/

Versarien started supplying graphene to the MOD and pretty much ended their prospects completely.

Anything aerospace or military I would be wary of as if it is ground breaking/world changing it will be spun into legal loop holes under a patent for decades and never see the light of day again and be secretly developed out of sight.

Lucky they had an ace up their sleeve. Increasing the resource size by 12x for not much more than 10% dilution. Masterful

Here is a tweet with the different scopes for production milestones. All still rather opaque as we don't know what the average basket price is vs operating margin for the past 6 months but spot prices were trending up until around March and costs were trending down so here's hoping for a simmilar margin as before. Doubt it will be better but could be surprised. New mantra is under promise/over deliver not over over promise and deliver.

https://twitter.com/solastalgian/status/1711816809295286656?t=UY-6-Xi4tQjBf9ePBQNxAw&s=19

I expect an operational update any day now.

Then some news to announce along with the AGM, potentially new environmental study and hopefully a Q&A session (this can be requested through investor meets company portal and I urge as many people to ask for this as possible)

Then sometime in November/December we will get a new director appointment, half year results, hipefully an updated timetable of production growth and expansion plus a progress update on Montepues DFS upgrades.

So good news due

Production, improved sustainability, maybe plans for next 6ktpa expansion, new director

Bad news

Weather/roads/grade issues/delayed receipts of payments could all work against us