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AB - I have been on the Telegram, I dont comment though, but the telegram channel is dangerous in my opinion, it is all up only talk.
Nick Slater for example was on there, so was Sausage Dog, both however warned of considerable down turn when at top, I think Nick called for 50p and explained reasons, but because was not up only was thrown off I believe
@wolfofwarks - ""However a good chairman oversees the ceo not vice versa, unless a founder and PW isn’t. PW is inexperienced a wise chairman overseeing this all would be wise imho."
I wouldn't say the chairmen oversees the CEO, they are two high powered offices who should be working together. Yes the chairmen and NEDs should hold the CEO to account on strategy but this is more for scrutiny rather than a reporting line."
Chairman = Eyes on, Hands Off
CEO = Hands On, Eyes On
The Chairman's job is essential, as he/she will be looking for things the CEO has not seen, as an independent, since the CEO can be to engranded with the culture and people to be totally impartial
But, PW is both, and PW has also hand chosen the board, so there is limited, if any independence - do remember one Director even named her boat after Argo and publicly praised PW for this, hardly independent? (she was later hand chosen to be a director, despite questionable credentials and, amazingly, PW 3 months later put to shareholders a new remuneration package for himself, which directors had approved)
If not a red flag unsure what is
@chaebol
Agree, people were warned in Sept/Oct last year, I didnt heed that warning and go full cash, but did exit Argo for different reasons
But yes, Shorters will be those who will become more wealthy over the next 9 months IMO
Short the main exchanges will be no bad thing I feel
@harchris
I hope works out for them, however.
That growth was during a period of extended QE, where 20% of all dollars ever in existance being printed in 2020!
When BTC was created it has since benefitted from an ongoing and uniterupted Bull Market
BTC was, from its creation, a punt, but now it has become highly speculative
Very speculative as no one knows how it will behave in a recession, or potential depression - this is the big question
If it survives and retains value then yes it could become the asset to hold value, if not, then it will just become a play thing for computer geeks to trade
It could also, just as much crab for the next 10 years
@harchris
Agree with your comments, hence playing the trend is the safest option, than just HODL, which, despite being the be all and end all when comes to Crypto, means that you will be down if HODL over past 12 months
@stnz "AIG what are you on about, I’d love to buy more at 25p."
I am sure I remember people saying the same at £2, £1.80, £1.10, £0.87...... before the respective bounces, whilst in hindsight in a downward trend, now that trend is alot more clear
So you may well get that opportunity, may also get the IPO price, or even levels other long term holders got
@jayblu48 - "all these calculations, but what happens if/when Bitcoin goes on a run back up."
Please see my comment, follow the TREND.
And the current trend is.......?
Chaebol "Totally agree with what you’re saying, what’s the re entry level you are looking for in Argo ?"
I am looking <25p, now the cult and PW following wont like this, but the reality is the trend is down.
At present in middle of London Fuel costs are around £2.40 a litre, come Christmas this will be the norm nationally, if not cheap
Argo is a retail focused stock, regardless of what people say, so the TREND is down
However, I am not precious, nor looking to get the top, or bottom
When I first bought Argo, you could say I was lucky, but I saw the upward trend so bought 40k shares mid December, followed by 60k before New Yrs (all those investors in since this was the upward trend).
But I never maximised profit, as overtraded
My issue through downward trend was cutting loses, so since learnt to sell the downward trend
So I will neither look to get top, nor bottom - but, IMO, this is not the bottom and if someone thinks it is, pick up the FT or go to your local chip shop and see how much extra your fish special is, then think to yourself does the casual investor have spare money to pump your bags? (or does Bill, the casual dude with £500 in Arb, more than likely need to cash to buy the kids school uniform in July?)
However, if I were having a guess, mid 20's in Q4, maybe less
But, you never know, ARB may improve governance, get a COO/CFO who take their responsibilities more seriously and compliment the excellent Perry, look to get an independent chair, etc, which encourages more institutional investment..... but, at same time, what happens if Riot, for example, poaches Perry?
So yes, have a price model in mind, but at same time, follow the TREND
Hexam
My feelings are that the management team are working toward a breakeven point of c$20k, which is their reluctance to discuss anything other than the direct costs, because they know what will happen to the SP 'when' BTC retraces the technical levels
Chaebol - totally agree, she got out of there as soon as the 'drunken' converstation happened
That should have been a huge red flag, that those who were basically dealing with insider information, all put over Twitter, remained in post and it was a director who left?! She left, imo, because she became immediatly aware of something which she did not want to be associated with
Also, the attempt of PW to improve own terms, whilst acting as independent chair
Said it before, all of the directors are yes people for PW & are part of a legion of PW fans, not healthy
And this all goes bk to the numbers, where senior mgt are unwilling to discuss the number in detail and continuous errors
All being said, ARB is still investible (due to UK based interest), just not at these levels, especially when I am expect to see RIOT at a $1 ($6.8 currently) for example, so that gives some sort of indication as to how the economy will impact Argo SP
BTW, not shorted ARB (and wont due to access), but have MSTR, MARA and Tesla
BTC Price is the main driver, all agree to this
However, ARB is a little more complex now. Early 2021 the SP increase was driven by retail
PW looked to cement more stability by getting more institutional investors, who will look at these financial basics and instituitions have in the main sold out of ARB, leaving retail carrying the bag
Problem investors have now is they are hoping those £3+ targets are reached, but will they, maybe in 3+yrs time, but for time being retail don't have the spare liquidity to pump the price - this is if ARB survives in current guise.
if BTC goes to <$20k for 12-18 months how will it survive, this is why being so dismissive of the real cost is a concern and why I think institutions have bailed.
And 3 years is a long time in crypto
Just to point out as well, why has PW and the board delayed the appointment of an independent chair - from a governance perspective investors should be asking about this, but almost silent
Seems to me, the real number, moving forward, will be between $20k and $25k
For senior management of Argo to be so dismissive of this number is quite concerning, either they are laissaz faire about it, or trying to withhold it, either which is concerning for investors
But, what investors need to think about is, is a $20k to $25k cost worth the risk for an asset trading at around $29k, with a likely drop off to <$20k imminent?
Always remember, that BTC is a speculative asset, more so now, than 10 yrs ago when it was just a punt. ARB is a leverage against this asset, and the upside leverage only kicks in once BTC has positive sentiment, which is continual, at present the sentiment is very much down and low.
Agree, there is some adoption, however, still very speculative
One thing I do know though is we are in a downward trend currently, BTC has retraced 85% from ATH last two bear markets, currently about 60%, so still potential downward trend
For every argument surrounding more adoption, there is a counter one that retail is exhausted, people have no money, QT, interest rates, etc
In any case, my advice now, after trading crypto related stocks for 2 yrs, is be mindful of the trend and the current trend is down and while central banks say there will be pain take note - like we all should have 6 months ago when FED staff dumped all their stocks
The reality is:
* there is limited, if any, new money coming into Crypto, regardless of what influencers tell you
* there will be continued QT, Bitcoin (and crypto) has benefitted from continous QE, with rate rises and inflation there will be less money coming into Bitcoin
* is Bitcoin speculative now? it is an asset now which has benefitted from QE and when was $100 was more just a punt, but now at $30k it is speculative as to whether it will be the store of value (or whatever), so will industry look to put a speculative store of value on their balance sheet during economic, geo political and environmental uncertainty?
* Technical Analysis points to a retest in low $10k's
* ARGO itself requires, at present moment in time, BTC to be around $30k to breakeven, when/if Texas is fully up and running I expect the breakeven point to be around $20k, maybe lower if zero down time
10 bagger in terms of m/cap, not share price I should add
There are currently 468m shares in issue
£3.50 * 468m = £1.6b m/cap
So just shy of a 7 bag from here
But, if there was a run, I would expect at least 2, if not 3, capital raises before got back to that point, taking No of Shares to 550m as a guess
That would equate to a m/cap of £2b - so nearly a 10 bagger
Now, if BTC does run, probably in 24 to 36 months time, yes you may see £3.50 again - as this is an m/cap already seen by Riot/Mara
Quarters, Years, Decades
The real question investors should have is, is ARB the best chance of a 10 bagger, or are there other potential 10 baggers out there?
@ArgoBull
You will also be aware that last year there was an investor presentation, around June/July time, where they also said there were no plans to raise further capital - which they went and did in any case
I personally would take assurances like that as a pinch of salt, because if BTC continues to drop and overheads cannot be met there will be no option to raise further capital, planned or unplanned
Always worth remembering that PW did state Argo joined NASDAQ due to greater opportunities to raise capital
Cheers Hexam, basically confirms my concerns that the real Mining Cost, for Argo (and all miners), is considerably understated and the various vague statements and information releases are, IMO, purposely designed to distract from this
Cash Burn will be an issue.
@HarChris - it depends, if 'crypto winter' is from now to the next halving that is <24 months, during which time cash burn will be considerable to just survive. The key here will be limited down time, ability to scale bk, including overheads (Argo now has the issue of a large site to fund), and ability to raise cash
In terms of raising cash if BTC is <$20k then, unless costs can be reduced capital raises will be required - will there be demand for this?
But who ever survives to the next halving will have a huge advantage
@Hexam
"As per results "average direct cost per BTC mined of $9,779 (£7,448)"
So actual costs for each Bitty is probably double!"
It's actually more than treble. The numbers are all there to do the calculation accurately and the all-in cost is $33,904 per BTC mined in Q1 although even this excludes share based payments and interest. This should come down a fair bit with Helios though.
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My quick fag packet calculation was just looking at cash related costs, so if throw depreciation into this, yes agree, the Cost Per BTC is unsustainable and very high - if there is a 12 month bear market where Bitcoin crabs between $13k and $20k then Argo could have some serious cash flow issues (as well as profitable issues)
However, on the flip the new site SHOULD offer a range of increased efficiencies, but there will be opportunity costs associated with these new efficiencies - wont be just extra revenue
All of this goes back to the CASH FLOW query I was asking a couple of days ago
Considering the Directors bought when the Share Price was 3 times the price it currently is I am sure a significant share holder purchase now at these 'CHEAP' prices would alleviate potential investor concerns
As per results "average direct cost per BTC mined of $9,779 (£7,448)"
So actual costs for each Bitty is probably double!
For those who will say no way, look at the costs used to calculate GROSS PROFIT, then compare to the costs after Gross Profit, more than double.