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Thinking about potential future local markets for gas, here's some misc bits on Tunisia Energy demand and infrastructure.
33% of Tunisia's 2018 $7.2b trade deficit accounted for by oil & gas imports.
Last week - Tunisia electricty demand hit record high of 4250MW
https://snag.gy/Z1BPcK.jpg
In 2018, natural gas & oil respectively accounted for 53% & 47% of Tunisia’s primary energy demand. 83% of electricity generation from open and combined cycle gas turbines, 15% from dual fuel steam units (natural gas & heavy fuel oil) and 2% from renewables (mostly wind).
Despite low economic growth, primary energy demand increased steadily since the revolution, gas demand quadrupling compared to 1990s’. Peak electricity demand also increased (~ 5%/ year 2010-2018). However, STEG( the public electricity & gas utility struggled to expand generation capacity, which grew by only 3.6%/ year 2010-2018 (7-8%/year during 2000s)
The World Bank is considering a loan of US$151m, predominantly to bolster HV electicity transmission capacity between North and South of country.
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/296941561687292260/pdf/Tunisia-Energy-Sector-Improvement-Project.pdf
Ostensibly, this will expand network capacity and provide market (in North) for a 200MW PV renewable energy project (further South). "including: (i) approximately 284 km of high-voltage lines connecting Skhira with Kondar and with Thyna, and Kondar with the Bouficha-Sousse transmission line" ==> https://snag.gy/Apfg6h.jpg
Conversely, improved electricity supply from Northern power generation to the South will also open up further development opportunities down there. Is Skira familiar? Tunisia's largest oil terminal!
https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1148640692459266054
https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1145255614571896832
Lots of good background reading in that World Bank report. Enjoy!
Thx Del. Always good to have lots of options and opportunities!
As for fit with Saouaf, my mind keeps going back to the Oued Bahloul & JBL-1 discovery & prospect (mentioned last night) - just into the Douleb block andvinclyded in our leads map - perhaps ETAP want to incentivise their early development alongside Saouaf.
PA Resources reported that the DST fields were "very profitable" to operate in 2007 at US$53/bbl price to local market. Their average operating profit margin (inc other assets) at that time was 46%.
Fields licensed to 2035.
Douleb:
40 km north of the city of Kasserine and located in a mountainous region (altitude: 1000 m). This site was discovered in 1966, developed and put into production in 1968.
4 production wells with ESP pump;
7 producing wells with pendulum pump;
3 production water injectors.
Storage and transport of crude
Storage in Douleb 2,600 m3
Storage in Tamesmida 300 m3
Transport to La Skhira by pipe
Length 174 km Diameter 6 '' Frequency of shipping 12 hours / week
Semmama:
40 km north of the town of Kasserine and located in a mountainous region (altitude: 1000 m). This site was discovered in 1967, developed and put into production in 1968.
1 producing well with pendulum pump;
1 well injector of production water.
Tamesmida:
60 km southwest of the city of Kasserine and located in a mountainous region (Altitude: 1300 m). This site was discovered in 1967, developed and put into production in 1970.
1 producing well with ESP pump;
3 producing wells with pendulum pump;
1 well injector of production water.
Transport to Douleb by truck
Back in April, UPL reported that ETAP had asked UPL to farm-in to producing fields (100+bbl/day net)
I've mentioned before that the Douleb, Semmama & Tamesmida fields in the Douleb block next door are likely candidates. I looked a bit further into the history of the Douleb fields. What stood out about these fields is the high interest that ETAP has in them (70%+) whilst the remaining portion is owned by Serept (which is a 50/50 ETAP + Perenco venture).
It turns out that back in 2015, a Swedish company, PA Resources, was distressed due to low oil prices and unable to pay creditors, became insolvent. After selling other assets, they were eventually forced to sell these fields to ETAP in May 2016. Price undisclosed, but shareholders were told not expect any value back from the sale.
So aside of the production volumes matching UPL's RNS, it seems ETAP never planned on holding so much of these fields. Perhaps they are now willing to move them on at cost (having said they bought under "economically advantageous conditions")
Illustrations and some source text ==> https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1148640692459266054
(including pipeline)
Ah! Douleb (next door) has other attractions too.
Oil storage facilities and a 174km pipeline South to port at Skhira (where Tunisia's biggest oil terminal is sited). At least 50% spare capacity by the looks of it.
http://www.serept.com.tn/Fr/site-douleb_11_100
Could be useful!
Bartering... maybe! UPL's leads map (in prospectus/CPR) did show 2 prospects (Oued Bahloul & JBL-1) over our block's border, in the Douleb block (which Serept's+ETAP's 3 fields reside in the SouthWest of) ==> https://pasteboard.co/In4YXkJ.png
Looks like we've already bagsied them in our licence...
"The terms of the Saouaf Licence also allow the Company further scope to build on the initial acreage position"
Possibly the BAR-1 prospect in the Jougar block too.
Oh... on the pipeline, I notice today that the contract has been awarded. Being rushed through!
https://www.africaintelligence.com/mce/business-circles/2019/06/20/bouchamaoui-industries-is-steg-s-favourite-gas-contractor,108362217-gra
Potential access for gas delivery direct to local markets. Pipeline due within 25km of our block North and West. Illustration here ==> https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1145255614571896832
Indeed Del
ENI look very likely as a partner somewhere down the line. They're heavily into Tunisia onshore, involved in nearly a quarter of concessions with ETAP.
http://www.etap.com.tn/index.php?id=1160&lg=3
ENI - 53 billion Euro market cap, operating in 67 countries
https://www.eni.com/en_IT/company/international-presence.page
Perenco (possibly via Serept subsidiary) may also feature. A large Anglo-French company operating next-door - 3 mature producing fields - possibly the ones we've been asked to farm-in to (match well to info given by SS in interview/RNS)
I'm very comfortable, thanks Lev. A benefit of researching thoroughly. Takes just a few moments extra to share via my posts here and many here seem grateful for it. Perhaps read and digest them yourself. No apologies- no need!
41 inconvenient truths about "new energy economy" (re economics & physics)
https://fee.org/articles/41-inconvenient-truths-on-the-new-energy-economy/
The 23-Apr RNS mentioned "elsewhere" again:
"A number of additional producing fields in Tunisia and elsewhere are also being assessed as candidates"
At least one high-level briefing about opportunities took place that month! This one being "elsewhere" in Asia ==> https://snag.gy/eFEMxv.jpg
Translated tweet today from Tun gov
"A new ten-year agreement between Tunisia and ENI consortium envisages the employment of 5.25% of gas exports, amounting to about 500 million dinars, as the annual revenues of the Tunisian state."
ENI have a Tunisian subsidiary with interests in about 10 licences - seem to prefer onshore, only 2 offshore.
It's often useful to revisit older documents in the light of later knowledge.
Looking at Optiva's broker note from January it seems it did recognise the "early stage" Saouaf licence when concluding its valuation of Saouaf (which considered only Dekrila discovery & SNJ-1 prospect) as worth approx US$45m to the company (roughly 7pps).
Extract: https://snag.gy/qxZ0L6.jpg
Full Broker Note: http://uplandres.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Upland-Resources-Tunisia-update-14-Jan-2019.pdf
Conversion of the permit now from a Prospecting licence to full Exploration licence, with contract in place and full legal entitlement, should offer potential for a good chunk of that value to start being realised in the SP, aside of any farm-in news.
The financial year just ended, prompting me to look the present holding in my unoffical register.
51.8% with UPL Formally Named Holders, including
6.5% with BoD
40.7% with Cornerstone Investors (Tune + NZ + Optiva)
22.4% is now held across 38 of 74 members in the Twitter Group according to credible claims.
I personally know of another 1.4% with other LTH's
Claims volunteered on this board account for near 2% (reliability of this is less certain, given infrequency of such posts and potential for duplicate counting.
So that leaves only ~ 22.4% to 24.4% of all shares unaccounted for, free, in the wild.
Trading at an average of 1m shares /day, means it takes approx 3 months to churn 10% of shares. So likely many more are tightly held in stickier mits.
(I maintain an unoffical register on ongoing basis based on holdings/purchases that regulars mention publicly in Twitter Group and here or to me privately/confidentially. If I have reason to doubt, I ignore. On rare occasions of contradictory declarations being made over time I choose lower or remove altogether. I remove entries of those who have fallen out of communication for some time as assumed sold. Only first-hand declarations of personal holdings are included - not second-hand friends/familiy holdings - to avoid duplicated inclusions)
Hey Reaper! Good to see you here again :o)
On the sunject of the video, @Nadj31 kindly gave me a summarised translation of what the Minister was saying, as follows:
- - -
He basically stressed out the fact that domestically Tunisian energy consumption will dramatically increase in the next few years with the economic reforms the new government is trying to carry out and thus there is an urgent need for exploration and the fact they awarded the six licences and the signing of these contracts is a signal for the government’s intent to support foreign E&P companies in the energy sector
He also went on for quite a bit to stress the need to show that Tunisia is open for business and that the government is determined to positively promote that particularly given the recent events that might have scared some foreign investment
One thing he also mentioned was that the signing of the contract was the first step and it still needs to be approved by parliament although he sees that as a formality given domestic needs and the government’s push for exploration
Just watched that bit again. It basically goes through various steps of approval, the last being the senate (parliament) approving the contracts that have just been signed. He says it is in the interest of Tunisia and so there should not be any issues. It’s almost as if he is saying it is done and dusted
(But in typical North African fashion he said a few things over and over)
- - -
So our position in the process fits my earlier tweets (below). Tunisian parliament publishes decrees frequently, every Tue & Thu. These can be extensive documents and frequently only available in Arabic first, with French translation lagging a few weeks, so given various spellings/translations it may be difficult to spot unless otherwise mentioned.
Cheers copperpot. You're welcome.
Of course they wern't going to go to the beach. The coastline there isn't that pleasant with all those gas-fired power stations and HC storage facilities! ;o)
Good to see Bolhassan made the trip with Steve. Wak there too.