Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The 7-Oct conference call has been available on the company website.
http://uplandres.com/media/ or at
https://youtu.be/sXVl4sHjYAw
(2 or 3 minutes of CP's introduction of his experience is missing at the start)
CP returning from Malaysia over the weekend.
Cheers. CP is heading over to KL next week, including to meet with our Asian investors there and also to talk with Petronas. He's clearly also thinking about the unexploited discoveries there, the "marginal fields" we've talked about before (and as featured in that presentation vid) as he intends to talk to Petronas "about potential field opportunities that have been overlooked because of their cost base"
The video of the CORO presentation I attended at end of last month is just released. Relevance to UPL being the section explaining Malaysia O&G opportunities, also featuring offshore Sarawak.
Malaysia section starts ==> https://youtu.be/WMQC9pTi4PI?t=1010
(about 6 mins)
Feature on 173 fields of discovered resources sitting in open acreage of around 20-30mmboe size (often prove larger when drilled) at ==> https://youtu.be/WMQC9pTi4PI?t=1251
Skipping to the present day, UPL modelling of structures in the Saouaf block used gravity data obtained by DNO and ETAP immediately after the the licencing over the old Fkirine block.
This 2018 research paper explores this same data around the SNJ oil prospect region noting several structures capable of accumulating hydrocarbons. ==> https://bit.ly/2oQdC7f
Extract...
"In addition, we see the emergence of new anomalies (Fig. 13). Using the vertical derivative, several new information emerge. The PA8 looms up as an anomaly generated by three different sources. A new positive anomaly PA8''' appears as a structure that can be a trap and capable to accumulate hydrocarbons. This new finding substantiates the importance of this structure called Sidi Naji structure, which was drilled by a petroleum well. The vertical derivative map shows also that PA9 is generated by two sources. We can notice likewise the emergence of two new positive anomalies PA11 and PA12 between PA1 and PA5. Those new structures were hidden, but they can be a good target for the petroleum exploration. We observe that NA1 corresponding to Saouaf syncline is, in fact, generated by three different sources, which prove that the Saouaf syncline is structured."
The illustration in my tweet (below) shows this paper's Fig.13 map alongside the equivalent area of UPL prospects mapped in the Blackwatch CPR. It is interesting to note how the positive anomalies (white PA) correlate against UPL's mapped structures. It also seems to identify additional structures that are not shown in the CPR. Perhaps some of these will be targetted of forthcoming 2D seismic to further explore their hydrocarbon potential.
==> https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1180110630348640257
Some research papers have opened up a new slant on Saouaf's history- the Fkirine block.
In recent years ETAP has redefined some blocks to make each more marketable, a few times. We know SS had long-standing interest in "El Fahs". Old maps show El Fahs with various boundaries to the NW of Saouaf. This link shows how these changed over time. Saouaf's eastern portion was once called Takrouna, which also extended much further south. Later, Takrouna's tail was carved off and renamed Fkirine. ==> https://snipboard.io/FQ5PhG.jpg
DNO (Norwegian) was offered a licence for Fkirine (Oct-2011, gazetted Jan-2012). DNO saw "considerable undrilled potential" and committed to a US$2.5m work programme over 2 years.
So, what happened?
Immediately, site surveys & geochemical studies were undertaken. Results encouraged DNO to expand seismic scope by 30%. 2D was shot within 6 months and, with 300km of older seismic, processed by year end. Commitments fulfilled, DNO were eligible for a 4-year extension & exploration permit.
Things then got vague. DNO was 1000-strong, with 20 licences across 8 countries. Through 2013, DNO expanded exploration into Oman, Yemen & Somaliland. The Tunisian wing farmed-in to a large offshore exploration and production too. By 2014, DNO's SP rides an all time high. Fkirine, just a small mention: "seismic reprocessing is ongoing". Then things turn & within 2 years the SP will hit lows.
Entering 2015, DNO's Tunisia focus is Sfax. They'd sold part of their interest and a drill then hit water. Worldwide exploration budget was slashed by 65%. Fkirine and others are no longer mentioned by name in reports. Talk switches to Tawke, a flagship project and earner in Kurdistan. Work force & licences drop by 25%. Tunisia exploration now just a one-liner: plans for seismic on Sfax & maybe a drill 2 years later.
By 2017, DNO are down to 7 licences worldwide. Fkirine, costing $100k/year is relinquished (but there appears to be no gazette entry to say the licence was ever extended from its 2-year term, or converted to exploration).
DNO sold their remaining Tunisian assets to Panoro on the same day that UPL won it's bid for the Saouaf block.
news/report cuttings ==> https://snipboard.io/sYUkln.jpg
So, despite keen interest and encouraging results early on, Fkirine just fell by the wayside as DNO rushed to acquire more assets. Other Tunisian licences involved partners, possibly forcing a higher priority. They probably looked more compelling too, being further advanced, with 3 oil discoveries already & 29 additional prospects of 500MMbbls+ potential. From 2015-2017, concerns over security caused general caution in onshore Tunisian O&G.
Given the formal relinquishment, it's likely that assets from DNO's $2.5m 2012 work at Fkirine will have been given to ETAP. These would then form part of the block data UPL have access to. The CPR mentions seismic is of various vintages and that "data quality is generally fair to good".
The thread I started 2 weeks ago on Fkirine's part in the history of the Saouaf block got lost under a pile of OT posts. So, I'll repost it now, so that I can append the further research I originally intended to add to it.
A new MoodMac report on how/where exploration is important for PETRONAS’s medium- and long-term growth
https://www.woodmac.com/reports/oil-and-gas-exploration-petronas-oil-and-gas-exploration-summary-16728480
(chargeable - free _brief_ summary)
Valdai piece on Africa development including O&G, recognises "shale gas will soon be available in Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Mauritania and Western Sahara"
http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-africa-summit-a-new-era-of-cooperation/
Thanks warrantwatcher.
Yes, given that the overall volume went up a couple of mil, that could prove interesting.
Another metric to do with liquidity (that I haven't really looked at for a while) is delayed publication trades. It's felt , to me, that there were more this month. But I haven't logged them for objective comparison to other recent months, but...
In September there were ~13 delayed publication trades (all just 1 hour)
The smallest was 325k
Delayed publications are occuring for trades at a threshold somewhere between ~290k and 325k.
To my recollection, that's about the same as we were seeing late last year.
Update for end of September
51.8% with UPL Formally Named Holders, including...
6.5% with BoD
40.7% with Cornerstone Investors (Tune + Acegroup + Optiva)
22.92% is now held across 44 of the Twitter Group members (approx 73) according to credible claims.
Up 0.22% over the month.
I personally know of another 1.4% with other LTH's
So that leaves only ~ 23.9% of all shares being held elsewhere in the wild (LTHs or otherwise)
An average of 1,049k shares/day (0.18% of all) were traded through the month.
At which rate it would take approx 19 weeks to churn just 10% of shares. Which may suggest that many more are tightly held.
Declarations in the Twitter Group suggest they account for only ~5% of buys during the month.
For those that haven't heard/deduced this from elsewhere, this event was by private invitation only, for private & professional investors from across the globe, who were also willing to invest in attending. There's a non-solicitation rule - attendees may not pitch ideas, only respond to interest in them.
Del's presentation was one 35, given to 60 attendees. UPL was the smallest of those put forward, which was ranked 2nd most popular by the organiser.
Quite a contributiuon from a private investor. Above & beyond, Del. Thanks.
We already know the MA63 steering group has extended into October. Local news reports reflect political posturing during the process (of both main sides, amongst others). They don't necessarily reflect a shift in actual progress of the group.
For UPL, "Sarawak" does not only imply Petros. Opportunities exist through Petronas too. UPL has stated it is working both camps.
Petronas have a licensing round in progress, indeed, well overdue. Some bidders most recently saying they expect news _around_ September.
Between Tunisia & Sarawak - SS said last month "I couldn't tell you which will come first"
Your other arguments do not belong here.
Sarawak Chief Min response to PM statement
https://www.theborneopost.com/2019/09/28/abang-johari-new-formula-submitted-on-revenue-sharing-with-petronas-in-light-of-oil-royalty-u-turn/
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2019/09/28/sarawak-pitches-new-formula-on-revenue-sharing-with-petronas-says-abang-joh/1795240
And an interesting article title which seems to have been deleted since they published it
https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2019/09/27/dr-m-promises-to-step-down-before-next-election/1794900
H contributes some of his time to the UPL investor community by maintaining a useful reference resource that helps us understand the likelihood of sells being holdings "thrown to the wall" or "turned for a profit".
Many of us our grateful for that. Perhaps reflect upon what value you bring to this community before jumping in with yet more caustic comments.
Lev, you posting under this subject brings new meaning to the Fkirine thread.
My, what different types of investor we are. While I researched for myself and summarised for others here, the history of the Saouaf block this decade, you bide your time, then as soon as a larger than average sell occurs, scuttle around the boards using various IDs to proclaim your glee about it.
Nobody in the Twitter group claimed it. Nobody left the group. Your one-track limited thinking about this share blinds you to other possible motives that may be behind such a transaction, other than investor boredom.
"Count up" as you call it (and as you haven't figured out yourself) will come at month end. Join the group, then I can add your share! ;o)
In relation to UPL's historical interest around El Fahs, it's worth remembering that our current Tunisian geological and ops advisor was the name on the last El Fahs permit.
==> https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1117765447452172289
Interesting what you see has been formally written when you revisit older docs...
2nd Supplementary Prospectus (Dec 2018)
"Under the Memorandum of Obligations annexed to the Saouaf Licence, the initial period of the Licence will be 2 years from the date of publication in the Official Gazette of the Tunisian Government, which is effected to be in late Summer 2019, during which Upland Saouaf has committed to execute a minimum programme of exploration work including acquisition, processing and interpretation of 300 km of new 2D seismic data, reprocessing of the existing 2D seismic data and desk-based geological and geophysical studies. However, the work programme does not have to await publication of the Saouaf Licence in the Official Gazette before it can get underway"
Some research papers have opened up a new slant on Saouaf's history- the Fkirine block.
In recent years ETAP has redefined some blocks to make each more marketable, a few times. We know SS had long-standing interest in "El Fahs". Old maps show El Fahs with various boundaries to the NW of Saouaf. This link shows how these changed over time. Saouaf's eastern portion was once called Takrouna, which also extended much further south. Later, Takrouna's tail was carved off and renamed Fkirine. ==> https://snipboard.io/FQ5PhG.jpg
DNO (Norwegian) was offered a licence for Fkirine (Oct-2011, gazetted Jan-2012). DNO saw "considerable undrilled potential" and committed to a US$2.5m work programme over 2 years.
So, what happened?
Immediately, site surveys & geochemical studies were undertaken. Results encouraged DNO to expand seismic scope by 30%. 2D was shot within 6 months and, with 300km of older seismic, processed by year end. Commitments fulfilled, DNO were eligible for a 4-year extension & exploration permit.
Things then got vague. DNO was 1000-strong, with 20 licences across 8 countries. Through 2013, DNO expanded exploration into Oman, Yemen & Somaliland. The Tunisian wing farmed-in to a large offshore exploration and production too. By 2014, DNO's SP rides an all time high. Fkirine, just a small mention: "seismic reprocessing is ongoing". Then things turn & within 2 years the SP will hit lows.
Entering 2015, DNO's Tunisia focus is Sfax. They'd sold part of their interest and a drill then hit water. Worldwide exploration budget was slashed by 65%. Fkirine and others are no longer mentioned by name in reports. Talk switches to Tawke, a flagship project and earner in Kurdistan. Work force & licences drop by 25%. Tunisia exploration now just a one-liner: plans for seismic on Sfax & maybe a drill 2 years later.
By 2017, DNO are down to 7 licences worldwide. Fkirine, costing $100k/year is relinquished (but there appears to be no gazette entry to say the licence was ever extended from its 2-year term, or converted to exploration).
DNO sold their remaining Tunisian assets to Panoro on the same day that UPL won it's bid for the Saouaf block.
news/report cuttings ==> https://snipboard.io/sYUkln.jpg
So, despite keen interest and encouraging results early on, Fkirine just fell by the wayside as DNO rushed to acquire more assets. Other Tunisian licences involved partners, possibly forcing a higher priority. They probably looked more compelling too, being further advanced, with 3 oil discoveries already & 29 additional prospects of 500MMbbls+ potential. From 2015-2017, concerns over security caused general caution in onshore Tunisian O&G.
Given the formal relinquishment, it's likely that assets from DNO's $2.5m 2012 work at Fkirine will have been given to ETAP. These would then form part of the block data UPL have access to. The CPR mentions seismic is of various vintages and that "data quality is generally fair to good".
A 2018 research paper: Basin modelling in northern Tunisia (around the Zaghouan fault in the Saouaf block), using vitrinite reflectance data to evaluate hydrocarbon source rock.
Table shows Total Organic Carbon (TOC) consistently well above 1%. Kerogen type II/III
Salient extracts and context maps/info in tweet ==> https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1175723398451859456
Source paper ==> https://bit.ly/2kN08rh
This paper supports the good/very good assessment of a 2013 research paper that I posted about last year.
==> https://twitter.com/_amnesic/status/1059516707553849345
A think tank apparently...
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2019/09/22/sarawak-needs-petroleum-council-says-think-tank/
Might just be a vehicle to support some political bias/spin, but possibly worth keeping an eye on as a source collating some pertinent content. Most looks a little dated now and they don't seem to think very often.
http://spg.org.my/index.php
Perhaps this SPG would've been more persuasive
https://the-bottom.fandom.com/wiki/SPG_%28The_Young_Ones%29
Interesting summary, Del. Since posting about the trade defecit on Wed afternoon, I've pondered the position crude oil plays in Tunisian trade (compared with natural gas). Your post focussing on gas, reinforces in my mind that the Saouaf SNJ oil Prospect (42MMbbl) is a bit of a misfit in the Saouaf collection of gas leads. The CPR gives it scant attention, despite oil being seen on the shakers during drilling before.
Having a geographically concetrated collection of large gas assets, sitting in the middle gas infrastructure and high value markets, we'd want to minimise complications or fragmentation of this portfolio during our early deals... keep the portfolio as tidy as possible as a single asset marketable to majors in the future.
If SNJ is the misfit, then it may be the most useful to isolate and base early deals on, coupling with our potential entry into an oil producing asset(s), perhaps. It already seismics centred on it ( https://snipboard.io/nNQEX5.jpg ). Could we have reprocessed that, earned back some of our $1m deposit, and proved/improved the asset for partner interest?