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Whats your thoughts on estimated cash balance? Is that including for sale investments I assume?

As end of year is was £33m broken out as £28.27m cash, £4.95m Barclays stock, that barclays stock is down about 170k as I type to £4.78m so do you think cash has gone up by £3m in half a year? As FY FCF was 'only' about £4.2m, so I would have it more at flat cash wise based on say £1-1.5m half year FCF with headwinds and some extra capex.

But our numbers are very close as O jabe stub market cap at £17.3m, but just wanted a feel of if I missed something in the guidance or balance sheet.

Still a 24% FCf yield trailing haha, or if FCF dropped by 50%!!! then still a 12% FCF yield. Very curious what AGM will say, anyone going?

Did anyone here make it couple weeks back? Wonder if any questions on buybacks and cash use were mentioned

Wonder if this was every looked at by volvere management, assume might be a competitor or potential competitor? Went into administration and then James SInclair bought it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MBEidXFW_8

They must either have an activist aim (payout cash?) or a buyout endgame building that stake.

Yes its a good place to put in terms of should be fairly defensive and resilient, there are a few others stocks in UK and US I like too that are moderate safe havens currently due to valuation and types of business.

They should just do a £20m ish buyback on the market. means they can regularly buyback way less than 80p I expect, and also if liquidity needs come up they can stagger it as needed.

The cash balance is/will be at a point during this year where they will basically need to do something with it, the very nice and welcome dividend increase wont solve that issue, so buyback of some sort I expect would be the obvious. As I cant see their increased investment such as in the US and COPD needing all their cash.

I expect next week or so we will get a date for AGM, so if no news by AGM I would be suprised if shareholders dont ask about this excess cash.

Buying Pets at Home 176p before the FY close statement tomorrow morning.

I think the only real thing that takes it lower is a dividend cut used by new CEO as part of kitchen sinking it. Anything else likely means we see 200p+ soon & collect 13p div, 7.4% yield

For me its all about cash flow. Cash pays for dividends, cash can be reinvested, but income statement shenanigans get all the attention.

For example another company I own have high D&A but their maintenance & replacement capex far lower, so people misunderstand the real profitability.

Yes you need to look at the cash flow statement and the notes regarding tax. Only £0.1m of tax was paid in cash, with something like £4.1m saved by tax shield.

Dividend wise I would expect we see maybe 1.5p? Unless they can execute a good buyback at market prices (not tender) then I would say put most cash into that, but even a 1.5p they will have cash left over to tender or buyback.

The whole market is weak, i imagine if any of it is specific to Pets at Home its that their shipping costs and cost base of retail operations could have negative such as energy costs, products etc. Keep in mind they have reduce prices on lots of products to try and reinvigorate retail.

Really the only question for medium term is, will the dividend be safe, if so its a 7% yield right now, and will retail further deteriorate or will it have some modest improvement.

I am close to buying more, as I said before I think we are in a 190-220 range for now so dipping below that I like for buys.

Yes thanks, I agree, I think in my FCF estimates I had factored that in, as its about the high £4m up to £5m using assumptions and the trading update.

One thing I have thought of though, is a small portion of the cash will be attributable to minority holders too, but probably sub £1m so havent factored in until we can see balance sheet and more detail at full results.

I bought some more today at 60p. Downside is mid/high 50s, but upside is we see probably 10-20% increase in dividend, tender/buyback. They literally have said they have no major ways to deploy most of their cash. So barring something unexpected, they will be returning 5-6% of market cap to shareholders in coming months.

Some figures I base things of are:

Mark the £4.95m investments down to £4.1m, as using AI this stock movements in recent years this is likely to be Barclays, as they mention 'stock' singular. So YTD movement as they mention brough it down.

Then net profit attributable to Volvere shareholders is likely about £3.2m, this is adjusted to take out the minority stake (we dont own 20% of the profits from Shire), and also take out he investment income so we dont overvalue the cash/investments by double dipping.

So take out cash and adjusted investment, its about a 6-7 p/e or probably about 5x FCF for Shire.

Cash and investments are almost 60% of market cap, feel like even at 50% still big safety net to do deals, hopefully on todays increase in volume we bought some stock back as 5x FCF seems a like a no brainer to buyback own stock.

Let me know if I have got something wrong.

31 shares traded today haha, is that a record? not seen so low before for any stock I have owned.

Based on previous ones it would most likely be Tuesday next week (17th) but almost certainly 17th-20th we will see it.

Yes, someone similar say a bigger rival or adjacent business or I believe as long as NIOX itself is still doing similar / the same business under a more generalist holdco owner.

Opened a position here around 63-64p in last week or so. I like the dual way to win in terms of:

Cash returns:

FCF 80% return with probably about a £14m underlying FCF and currently £19.9m sitting in the bank. So buyback or tender likely in this months results. Also dividend (likely a raise of that too).

Buyout:

Tax shield and recurring FCF make this attractive to a larger company that could get real short term value from the tax losses that NIOX can't make use of themselves.

The only caveat is I think some might not have factored or back out the cash flow boost from the beyond air and so might be suprised when FCF looks a bit softer, but the underlying will likely be nicely up I would think.

I was wrong on when buybacks ended, but seems they have ended now? As totting up the total shares bought back and avg prices its about right and no filing today.

Can see my range of 190-220 being valid until earnings if no buyout/CMA news.