Member Info for Alfacomp

Endion, no they are actually dropping the price so that day traders don't get to walk away with as much profit as the would have otherwise done. The thing is there is every likelihood that we get an after hours RNS that says that everything is agreed and everybody expects to be back at work next week and monday AM we'll be up another 10% before you know it.

So Mr Day Trader this is for you - perhaps you should know a little more about the companies in which you by shares ?

And lo there was a 250K buy that fell upon the land

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-14th-sept-2018

now updated - certainly does look like obfuscation at present - I mean up 10% and less Buys than Sells, c'mon guys we weren't born yesterday !

Can't even buy 500 quids worth now

@BM - I think you need to change your name

SOTRR - ta will do

That 25.525p is a sell - they are asking 26p for Buys

It has gone now Knuttie

Endion - that ask is nonsense - they are pay 25.2p already !

Mrdavozz - you will need to explain your terminology for those who may be unfamiliar

We all remember the be careful what you wish for warning

No prizes for any explanations as to what this might have been referring to

Sorry I'm not interested in those that claim to be stalking company employees on facebook.

I guess that those that agree will recommend this post.

for today:-

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/trading-analysis-14th-sept-2018

wish to own up to a large unreported buy at 8:24am ?

Yep I saw those - someone got a deal

7) Fortune Mojapelo and Mikhail Nikomarov - I have spoken to them and seen them present numerous times. Unlike most other AIM company executives who give the impression of simply marking out their time until their next paycheck or NED job comes along these guys have my complete trust and confidence. They are in this to really create an entirely new industry in south africa and I think both see this as their life's work and greatest ambition. In addition I think they are both strategically excellent thinkers and have exactly the right attitude to building commercial networks and relationships with VRFB technology partners and Energy Storage customers. Mikhail is now in charge of Vanitec's Energy Storage committee and meetings and is putting in place a global marketing campaign on behalf of all VRFB manufacturers. Fortune of course controls 5% and ultimately >10% of world Vanadium production. Between them I believe that they will be able to create the long-term relationships that will nurture the global VRFB industry and not simply kill it whilst in the cradle via excessively high Vanadium prices. Between them they run the BMN subsidiary Bushveld Energy, which handles the Energy Storage side of the BMN business. ( http://www.bushveldenergy.com/ )

It is easiest to get a feeling for these guys by watching them, on video:-https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/bmn-video-1

Huge amounts to get through I know, but this is what I've spent about 50% of my time on in the last couple of years. Why ? Because I know I would need to spend a very very long time looking to find another company as good as BMN and the opportunity that Vanadium presents right at the moment.

This is before any further development of the two other greenfield sites that BMN owns: a) Brits, which is right next door to the Vametco mine, and b) Mokopane about 100 miles to the North East)https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/bushveld-locations-223 - both are top-tier level deposits and the plan is to use these to allow BMN to double production again to 10,000 Tonnes Per annum, some 10% of world supply, in the next couple of years.

This could yield company valuations of perhaps a factor of 10 larger than it currently is.

6) What does the future hold for Vanadium? The key fact is that Vanadium is the only element that can exist in aqueous solution in 4 different contiguous oxidation states (2,3,4 and 5) - in 1990 it was proven by Prof. Maria Skyllas Kazacos of UNSW that this allowed for a flow battery to be made entirely with the same electrolyte on both sides of the semi-porous membrane that divides the positive electrolyte from the negative electrolyte. This means that any transmission of any electrolyte through the membrane does not cause any problems (in other flow battery chemistries if this happens you get irreversible loss of battery energy storage capacity which inevitably increases over time). Between 1990 and 2010ish UNSW had this patented and tried with a number of companies to get the Vanadium Redox Flow Battery (VRFB) industry off the ground.

A simple video showing the principle of the VRFB :-https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/how-the-vanadium-redox-battery-vrb-works-16
A detailed article from our VRFB partners , UniEnergy technologies :-https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/its-big-and-longlived-and-it-wont-catch-fire-the-vanadium-redoxflow-battery
The world's largest battery, now being built in China, is a VRFB:-https://electrek.co/2017/12/21/worlds-largest-battery-200mw-800mwh-vanadium-flow-battery-rongke-power/

The UNSW people were 25 years too early, for megascale (and gigascale to come) energy storage was not a thing then. With prices per Joule now less for PV than for coal or gas there is growing demand for the storing of huge amounts of energy to get over the daily 'duck curve'.https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/20/17128478/solar-duck-curve-nrel-researcher

The key thing for me though is that in the last 9 months China has nailed its colours to the VRFB mast with the announcement that they would be '"developing multiple 100MW-scale Vanadium flow batteries by the end of 2020" and that they "selected a vanadium flow battery because they have superior safety, reliability and lifecycle economics compared to lithium-ion and other battery types."

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/11/01/1172376/0/en/Pu-Neng-Wins-Contract-for-the-Largest-Vanadium-Flow-Battery-in-China-as-the-China-National-Development-and-Reform-Commission-Initiates-a-Major-Push-for-Energy-Storage-in-Support-of.html

4) How do we know the company really is selling as much as it is, even before the company reports production figures or end of year results (Q1 2018 was the last reported production period, we are eagerly awaiting Q2 production figures right now) - one of our contributors, Paludina, has undertaken an ongoing analysis of US customs clearance reports (publicly available) which allows us to see all of the product that Bushveld Vametco is shipping to the US (about 55% of all sales).https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/nitrovan-shipments-to-the-us-183 - needless to say this is very healthy and though it tells only the half the story it is still a very valuable way of dispelling the 'it really sounds too good to be true' concern that reasonable people might have.

5) One thing that has irked many people on the LSE board is how the 'official' AIM analysts have made predictions that have seemed unduly conservative, and have basically only mirrored what the share price was doing. This is why we now track all analysts SP target predictions as well as the assumptions that they use to justify these predictions :-https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/analyst-watch-232 When you see that our own broker's (SP Angel) valuation of 33.6p assumes that the price of Vanadium is somehow going to fall from the current 80 USD/Kg back to 35 USD/Kg on the 1st of January 2019 you can see just how much leeway they are building into the future for price upgrades.

This brings us to a back of the envelope calculation of profitability.

All in it costs Vametco roughly 23 USD to make each KgV of Niitrovan (1 KgV is the amount that contains 1Kg of Vanadium)
A long term average sale price of 35 USD/KgV yields 12 USD nett profit/KgV
If long term average Vanadium prices settle around 65 USD/KgV then this is 3.5 times higher at 42 USD/KgV (65 USD/KgV is close to the average obtained this year).

Furthermore our production is increasing in the next year from 3000 Tonnes to 5000 Tonnes per Annum

At 3000 TPA, and average sales prices of 65 USD/KgV over the year Vametco profit before tax would be 126M USD, our 75% of this is 94.5M USD. Take off Tax and royalties and you may get down to 65M USD (51M GBP) . At the current Share price BMN is valued at 250M GBP - this is a Price to Earnings ratio of 5. As another of our contributor's, Calder Capital, has shown here ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/bushveld-minerals-vs-aim120-financial-analysis-281 ) the average for similarly sized companies on AIM should be closer to PE=25, some 5 times higher than where we are at now.

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3) Why has the market not responded with fair value for BMN yet ? This video gives a brief hint at the reason - essentially in an illiquid market the audience of investors is small enough that the share price can easily be pinned or dictated by the action of just a single large investor :-https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/bushveld-minerals-in-a-minute-50 in this case between December 2017 and March 2018 the share price of Bushveld Minerals was entirely dictated by the fact that one large owner of shares (the Erongo group that BMN had purchased the Uis Tin mine in Namibia from) was unlocked from selling their 41 million shares in BMN. Despite signficant developments which should have propelled the BMN share price up it was pinned in the range 8-9p until all 41m were sold. (The Erongo guys wanted cash to buy BMW's with not paper shares.)

There is more detailed analysis of the Erongo overhang which I undertook here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/the-end-of-erongo-260 - I am happy to say that the prediction that I made on the 5th of february this year was borne out by the movement of the share price a month later. That was quite a piece of investigative work, but fun. This was just the start of the movement of the share price from 8p to 28p where it now lies.

Up until december 2017 BMN was a minority (26.6%) shareholder in Vametco, so could not simply assert on its balance sheet that it had received 26.6% of Vametco's profit. It was only after it bought out Yellow Dragon in december 2017 that it became the Majority (59.1%) owner/controller of Vametco, at which point under accounting rules it can assert that it takes 59.1% of Vametco profit.

Yesterday BMN bought out the minority partner, Sojitz, without any dilution, bringing it's ownership of Vametco to the maximum 75% allowable under SA's BEE rules.

However the truth about BMN's Vametco profitability has not yet appeared on any end of Year financial reports yet so as far as most of the market is concerned it hasn't happened. Of course once it does hit then the crowd will arrive and investors will have missed the opportunity to be ahead of the curve.

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Those that have been here for any period of time will know all about The Bushveld Perspective but for those who may have only recently arrived here, who have perhaps spotted yesterday's rise or read a little about the company in the press I will give a little introduction.

The Bushveld Perspective ( https://www.thebushveldperspective.com ) was created in spring 2017 when I saw how easily lies and misinformation could be spread on this forum or others such as ADVFN.

I concluded at that time that the forum type of investor information board were not adequately policed and that good research and analysis could very easily be submerged by a torrent of nonsense and misinformation by those who make money by shorting shares. Since setting up The Bushveld Perspective (TBP) it has become a sort of online distributed research hub with different individuals curating different aspects of research into the business of Bushveld Minerals (BMN), Vanadium and Vanadium Flow Batteries.

So to some highlights:

1) Firstly Loudspeaker's (the nicnames are those of the same individuals on the LSE forum system) tracking of Vanadium prices :-https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/vanadium-prices shows how a number of factors have all combined together right at the moment to propel the price of Vanadium up by 500% in 2 years.

2) These factors are perhaps best summarised by the independent analyst Terry Perles who regularly covers the market at the meetings that the world vanadium organisation, Vanitec, holds. I have reported on the last 3 of these meetings. Terry's bit is usually in part 1 of each report.

June 2017 before the Vanadium shock in July that yearhttps://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-2nd-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-206

October 2017 https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-3rd-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-175

July 2018 https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/vanitec-4th-energy-storage-meeting-part-1-274

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