RE: Could BMN weather a global recession?15 Aug 2019 22:21
There are no rules of thumb. It depends how spiky the daily fluctuations are, and how much cheaper the night time electricity is compared with the daytime and how much extra charge you have to pay per month for maximum power flow (yes you can't simply rock up and expect to be able to draw large powers with the cost of transmitting the power to you being levied back onto you.)
This paper runs through a process for estimating how extra power generation capacity you can replace if you have batteries of 4,6, or 8 hours. As you might expect as the duration goes up you can replace more and more extra generation capacity with batteries - as you knock out the narrow spikes with short duration batteries you end up with flatter peaks and eventually a relatively smooth daily fluctuation - then your long duration batteries can really go to work shifting GWh or energy from one part of the day to another.
As more and more PV gets introduced the duck effect becomes stronger and eventually you end up being able to get two charge-discharge cycles per day, as I described earlier.
RE: Could BMN weather a global recession?15 Aug 2019 21:30
Faramog and Zebediah - of course any significant industrial plant is unlikely to go completely off the grid. Instead they will retain their existing grid connection as a useful backup - this then allows them to buy cheap nighttime electricity (when nobody else wants it) AND cheap daytime electricity (from their own PV farm) to use a battery system twice in the same day. Sweating the battery asset more actively like this doesn't worry a VRFB but it would kill a Lithium-ion battery twice as fast. I guess you can immediately see the commercial benefit that this gives the VRFB, and of course this is precisely what BMN is going to do at Vametco, and what Pat Frampton of Bushveld Energy told me they would be doing when I visited the Eskom battery test site in January:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/eskom-battery-site-visit-410
RE: Could BMN weather a global recession?15 Aug 2019 21:25
YTSS not necessarily. Voltstorage has a household VRFB that competes directly with the Tesla powerwall you see adorning the walls of Tesla stores (but the salesboys that work there can't tell you anything about it though - I know I tried last week.)