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I think a lot of the angst here is that the 'bottom' needn't have been anywhere as low as it was 'driven' down to by what I think most would agree at best was appalling management decision making and forward planning (there wasn't any cohesive plan for share holders other than a 5% return).
As I see it they:
1/ Came up or were entrapped into the 95% give away plan.
2/ Talked our assets down to totally unreasonable numbers.
3/ Commissioned a CPR to reflect the above 'in house' numbers.
4/ Spent 17M of the companies money in the process.
5/ Cancelled the AM contract.
Result, a sp of less than a penny and we were only saved by the action of CA.
Incredibly sad given that the sp should never have fallen out of the teens given a competent management imho.
'I still believe a TR-1 will come soon'
Can't disagree with that Rodgetrades, the number traded of late have been huge.
I didn't think today's Operational Update warranted a 4.5% price drop in the sp the numbers looked pretty stable to me.
Where is it and why haven't we got it and why haven't been told why we haven't got it?
'Yikes Albie! I hope it turns for you'
Oil_Beast - Getting the sp back above 4p doesn't worry me too much at the moment, the ones I bought at 45p on the other hand.....Oh dear, I need a lie down.
The share price has fallen because I scrapped enough together to buy 50k @4.something p the other day. I shouldn't have done it and I'm sorry;-)
Maris has said:
'If the proposed restructuring is approved and implemented, we will focus our efforts on maximising Lancaster cash flows to pay down debt, as well as making the case for further development of our West of Shetland asset base'
Today we plugged and abandoned Lincoln which: 'was drilled in Q3 2019, and tested at a maximum stable flow rate of 9,800 stb/d.' There is your case for further development WoS 9800stb/d
Then: 'The GWA Partners have concluded that it will not be possible to tie-back the Lincoln Crestal Well to the Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020 and therefore the installation vessels to carry out this work under contract with the oilfield service provider have been released.' Why was it not possible???
Then: 'The GWA Partners have agreed to continue to build all the previously ordered equipment.' Again, why? if your not going to tie it back to the FPSO?
All seems crackers to me.
That wasn't the plan was it P&A Lincoln then let the Bond Holders bring it online?
Got to be high if not top of the to do list.
Musing: I wonder how Mr Maris is getting along with his new CA colleagues....?
Well I think any company (Kerogen (CNOOC)... for one) will have to buy HUR shares to take us over as the chances of the Bond being paid back are very high indeed as things stand.
"senseman's having a rest - drinking coffee and chewing on a stogie - reading the papers and watching oil rising"
Mm, I've often wondered if you're A Maris, or on the HUR Board in some position, hey you're not Sandy Shaw are you (lol), you sound like you've a bit of time on your hands......
You can see the mindset of Maris. He came into this and an internal 'Technical Committee of Hurricane's Board was established to re-examine the full range of possible geological and reservoir models for the Lancaster field (the "Technical Review")' Trice having suddenly left.
The above 'revue' being done with the most pessimistic and negative of mindsets 'internally by Technical Committee' and then a new CPR was commissioned to effectively reflect that 'negativity and mindset' which ERC duly did, you can see in the CPR statement header below.
Antony Maris, Chief Executive Officer of Hurricane, commented:
"The summary of the CPR published today is broadly consistent with the estimates for Lancaster and Lincoln which we presented in September 2020. We are continuing to work on a financial plan and are engaging with our key stakeholders to allow us to take the business forward and provide us with the best chance of targeting these reserves and resources."
At this point I surmise that the Bond Holder 'Plan' was already on the oven and simmering away nicely, read ('and are engaging with our key stakeholders') those famous words 'key stakeholders' Its a shame they weren't 'engaging' with CA who I think it's fair to say could be classified as a 'key stakeholder', the reality being they didn't 'engage at all.
Nah, the whole thing absolutely stinks and $17M down the tubes to boot.
It is and always will remain my view, that WoS and our acreage has vastly more OIP than the second CPR says. Our share of which was oh so very nearly 'given away' to Bond Holders who would miraculously reinvigorate our acreage, it's a real shocker, it really is.
You don't think CA has a master plan here. I can see substantial upside and yes I'm well aware of all the 'perceived' possibilities (and I say they've been well over egged to suit).
Happier times and just think where we'd be if CA / the Judge hadn't stood our corner, it really is truly shocking but the right and just outcome was delivered.
Onwards and upwards from here and great news from CA today.
Welcome Troughsnout (new poster today) and interesting name, anyway.
So why given all your negatives, would CA buy another 8.77% of HUR?
As disclosed on 8 June 2020, the Technical Committee of Hurricane's Board is re-examining the full range of possible geological and reservoir models for the Lancaster field. The 2017 Competent Person's Reports attributed independently certified reserves to the Lancaster EPS development and contingent resources associated with the overall West of Shetland portfolio. The outcome of the technical review may lead to a material downgrade of these contingent resource estimates. Any such revisions would be formally reflected in a new Competent Person's Report, currently scheduled for release no later than the end of Q1 2021.
"The outcome of the technical review may lead to a material downgrade of these contingent resource estimates. "
No sh*t Sherlock, that 'MAY' turned into 95 chuffin%
Is it just me but when I read back through the HUR RNS's it doesn't feel tight or ring true, none of it. If ever a Company needed investigating I'd propose it's this one!
'Albie, “Schlumberger tools” works for me'
Tuxedo8 - Me too, you can't say Trice got it wrong when he drilled Lancaster, the modelling again being done with Schlumberger tools. Fwiw I think there's Bn's of barrels of oil WoS and everyone in the industry knows it. There needs to be more wells drilled.
file:///C:/Users/PC/AppData/Local/Temp/31_May_2016_Enabling_Geological_Scale_Dynamic_Modelling_of_a_Fractured_Basement_Reservoir__31_May_2016_Presentations.pdf
TopCat81 - Trices CPR was based on data provided to RPS from 'in house' (HUR) using schlumberger tools, that's how the numbers came about for the first CPR.
'Prop Desk running the show can squeeze anymore out of this'
You mean MMs'?
"Haha, yes if your Joe Public, with no knowledge of the mechanic’s running in the background & the Trade that has just taken place. Then that’s the logical assumption."
Well obviously you do DestituteBroker, maybe you'd like to explain the 'mechanic's running in the background' here, I for one would be interested to know what I'm missing.
"Why is the sp not holding we are in best position in months"
It'll recover and some, just a blip. Think about it, our BOD couldn't have been more negative if they'd been paid to be (and they were). With our current production levels and assets things (sp) should improve appreciably from here.
We had Trice's CPR too high and Maris's too low, I don't think we need to spend for another one but I strongly feel the numbers are somewhere in between.
Also, if this travesty of a give away to Bond Holders had gone ahead, I suspect Lancaster would (and will be) producing for years to come, the whole area needs more exploration wells, just look at Lincoln a successful well plugged and abandoned!
Issues ahead, sure but not all doom and gloom by any means and a lot of positives.
Its a 'No Brainer'