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I have no more comments. Today it is 3.82 pence (-10.97%). I leave you to discuss details. I believe some of you might still be Avanti management, or triggered by them.
Therefore I prefer not to comment further. I said that the company would not reach Christmas time without a further cash injection, it is about reading the numbers, not the Delphi Oracle... Still I read about MoU or MDA, speculating on revenue per quarter, etc. I admire those who are in good faith, I am not sure how many...
Folks it is a MOU with Comsat, nothing more. No commitment, just a declaration of intent. Jumping to conclusion about buying etc is one more time evidence of not understanding how critical it is. The current administrator would sell to Comsat, surely and desperately. But then... why would Comsat buy AVN really... someone with large fantasy shall explain here. It is enough to wait a few more month, perhaps weeks and the chip goes to the street market.
Hi tyche100, I am not at all an ex employee. I am a retired late 60 individual investing my pension funds and upset with how this company AVN has been managed so far.
https://www.viasat.com/news/avanti-communications-signs-10-million-contract-viasat
https://advanced-television.com/2018/06/26/avanti-wins-viasat-business/
https://www.marke****ch.com/press-release/united-kingdom-avanti-communications-signs-10-million-contract-with-viasat-2018-07-05
Nothing cynic, let us just look at the shares evolution and the numbers, and stop spreading fake optimism.
ViaSat was begged literally to buy Avanti fleet (H1, H2 and H4). Initially they thought it was viable, however they were also looking for the terrestrial infrastructure. After due diligence it was discovered that it was super leased, and revenue recognised in the balance sheet, with a benevolent green light of the auditors a few years ago. Therefore they switched, and they obtained a cheap price (very very low hanging fruit, almost rotten at the bottom of the tree), starting Q3 next year (because there is no one single beam of H4 active yet). So let us stop dreaming about big names, Avanti is a small kid with a huge baggage to carry. Who will adopt it?
Gents and not,
Have just got round to reading the interim results: Https://www.investigate.co.uk/avanti-comms-group--avn-/rns/interim-results/201809280700092558C/
They're awful.
Ignoring the exceptional credit from the debt for equity swap then there are still massive losses.
Debt is $408m AFTER the debt for equity swap. And they're still burning cash. There is nothing here for ordinary shares, they will need another debt for equity in time, if some good samaritans are still willing to help already dead man...
I have lost about 50k so far, nice profit never seen... however, it is out on the market for sale. Bondholders should inject more cash (around 45m) to keep it in intensive cae for another couple of quarters, hoping a mirace happens and Viasat or Echostar would buy. But why would they ? Do they need satellites (the only valuable AVN asset...) ? Not really. Visat have got his own big one and Echostar/Hughes have got a deal with Yahsat (a real deal, bringing revenue, not a RNS...). Hence who else is interested in buying out 500m debt?
I see everybody now start wondering and the optimism is gone. The numbers speak and the current AVN management has no clue what to do, except for a few RNS's that none at the City believes in. I questioned a few posts ago whether it was ignorance or just insane confidence that some of the blogger had in AVN. I was answered I was grumpy... well the result is under your eyes. Chapter 11 is awaiting.
A few cases in the industry history whereby the General Counsel left, and in most of the cases the reason being the company was going into bankruptcy. David Bestwick and Patrick Willcocks have been pillars of AVN. DW was perhaps not the best manager, but surely a way better business man than these leftovers from Vodafone and bunch of consultants, pretending to know about VSAT and markets. Check their track record, starting from the CEO, and you will see they have almost all been fired for lack of performance or even worse misconduct. The pipeline looks much skinnier than before, and cash-flow is nearly coming to an end. Where does your optimism come from? Ignorance or purely faith?
MoU do not make revenue. The good news are fictitious celebrations, not real deals. The same culture that has destroyed the company years ago, to portray a reality which is just a smoke&mirror is continuing. Bad news, I would say...
The real news beyond the H4 "testing" is that there are rumours about AVN not having yet the license to operate in SA and Nigeria. Perhaps GCC can shed some light on it, since he is still optimistic...
Agree, in fact there is no interest whatsoever and current revenue numbers do not allow to reach any reasonable cashflow. H4 is another element to attempt a sale to a good willing large wallet large VSAT operators, but who would buy capacity from a company that could hardly deliver ? Another matter to be considered is the following one: if the bondholders have not sold so far... that means really that there is no buyer. Hence the inevitable decline of the share price, till probably chapter11. Then lots of buyers would surely show off, as AVN would be on a handcart street market.
I see the market is reacting very well to the latest marketing news... shares lost 2% today, but who cares. H4 launch with transexual people and drag's queens brought pictures of the new management on the newspaper. Terrific news indeed :-) and of course shows reliability and multi year loooong term arrangement.
Master Distribution Agreement is just a virtual agreement on distributing capacity once available. Kyle's absence of comments is probably due to the fact that without financial commitment, the MDA is just a piece of paper, good for marketing, hence the RNS... The market did not react of course, should it ? AVN shares still floating around 5p. Dress up continues, but the cotton is thinner and thinner...
The company's future is not binary. It is already decided. Rest is noise. Your hope is pathetic.
I like Matt comments. Anyway, there is no need of a proficient accountant to realise the current situation. We shall see the trend of the shares, still floating around 4-5p and the next revenue, if any. $20m from Indonesia was accounted in the past financial years, and it is cashflow not revenue. Another comment: the value of some deals is inflated. Good night to everybody.
Crobe, Head in the Sand, Matt the Brave, South Street and more recently AL-17 should be ignored simply because we highlight the crap going on.
"Now it is the time to buy... as our new bird is shortly to come into service!"
The only contracts signed up sum up for no more than $2-3m in 2-3y and probably 10-15% of the total capacity procured on the belly of the bird... great business case, indeed. Time to buy guys ! :-) An of course the steerable capacity to Viasat sold at less than 100$ per Mbps, hoping Viasat will get compassion to buy this dead body.
I agree with SS: "When you can provide a good reason ( good meaning anything other than blind hope) to buy this crock of dog plop then do inform us all would you....".
Pls stick to facts if you want to invest your money or convince others to do so.
I am happily retired, and have changed jobs across my life. I have investments across different industries and the only one disappointing is avanti (or shall I call it apple :-)). I am not a loser, rather gaining on the stocks across the board. You instead seem insist on avanti without cognition or knowledge at all. Perhaps you are employees of avanti trying to influence around the chat. which is quite funny as pathetic, iif proven to be true. You are making me smile, talking about avanti, which is awesome... good luck with that
I am mesmerised by some comments here. Facts are clear and comparing Avanti to Apple shows that there is a persistent attempt to depict the company as a big potential. Pls. change job or chat
some of the bloggers here are perhaps incentivised to be optimistic. pls. stick to the facts. shares went back to 5 p...
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